ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Shuriken]

I agree I think its getting there but its not quite there yet, probably does need to upped to 80% chance though, and I see no real reason why it can't become Hermine in the next 36-48hrs.

If it develops at an Humberto/Bret/Opel rate, yikes. It could be Hurricane Hermine within 24, and a major within 48. The LLC is so far south and so well-formed already, that there is IMO a high risk of this becoming a significantly larger and more powerful storm than one usually sees with an early-or-late season NNE shot, or a Yucatan-crossing weakening/restrengthening NW-mover. With the extended long-wave trough forecast to develop in the central Plains, this would imply a tropical system moving more or less straight north to Louisiana, give or take a state, entrained in uniform moist flow.

Unofficial disclaimers, of course.

The window on seeing a perfectly circular and vigorous LLC is closing as deep convection overspreads the system near sunset: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Boriken]

O my. this one has every think Ex. gaston lacks. good luck for all of you in the GOM

[redfish1]

does anyone think this could make it to the upper Texas coast cause my wife is having a baby Tuesday morning and i am starting to get a little concerned?

[Wx_Warrior]

Moving to Louisiana eh?

[srainhoutx]

does anyone think this could make it to the upper Texas coast cause my wife is having a baby Tuesday morning and i am starting to get a little concerned?

At this point it just looks like a heavy rainfall potential for the Beaumont Area. With that said, anyone in the NW Gulf Coastal area should keep an eye on things the next couple of days IMO.

[Wx_Warrior]

I think we (SETX) could get some heavy rain Tue/Wed out of this system.

[Shuriken]

Moving to Louisiana eh?
(Location: Beaumont, Texas

...close enough.

[Vortmax1]

Yes, it does appear to be moving Northerly.
And looking like a nice circulation going on the radar now.

[Wx_Warrior]

Shuriken, I pleasantly disagree.

Needs to be watched closely.

[Aric Dunn]

It is really beginning to organize quickly now... clear banding and convection increasing around LLC. could be upgraded at 11pm I would anyway..

[KWT]

The more northerly/NNE it goes now the more its going to buy itself time over water given the way the land curves.

If its not upgraded at 11 then it'll almost certainly be upgraded the round after that...radar looks neat!

[Aric Dunn]

TX/Mex border is a possibility as it should somewhat follow the trough axis that it is semi attached too so it heading N right now then should bend back to NNW or NW with landfall likely just south of border. in a coulple days

[Vortmax1]

I agree Aric...probably come in a little closer the Tex/Mex border...that gives it a little more off-shore time.

[Aric Dunn]

more images.... banding continues to rapidly improve.

[perk]

does anyone think this could make it to the upper Texas coast cause my wife is having a baby Tuesday morning and i am starting to get a little concerned?

At this point it just looks like a heavy rainfall potential for the Beaumont Area. With that said, anyone in the NW Gulf Coastal area should keep an eye on things the next couple of days IMO.

What happen to this morning's thinking that 90L would not get too far north.

[BigA]

Right now it looks to have a healthy easterly component to its movement, which is important, especially since the coast slopes inward, so it will likely have 36 hours over water at least. Given the strong looking banding, it is probably already a tropical depression, and if it isn't classified at 11 it should be at 5 AM.

[Florida1118]

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG
THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW.

[Aric Dunn]

[wx247]

I have been monitoring this area all day today... in the last 6 hours, this region has really become quite organized. I could definitely see advisories being initiated at the 10 p.m. central time.

As always, just my $.04...

[Shuriken]

Sub-20N north-lifting, southwestern-BoC-origin analogs are rare.









The apparent 11-year cycle is intriguing.

Also note similarities between 1999's tracks and this year's so far:



(*There are plenty of June/July and October storms from the BoC; with the exception of Opel, most only make TS or cat-1.)