ATL: GASTON - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

120Hrs

[Ivanhater]

120 hours

[I-wall]

EURO 96hrs

Where is 98L?

[Wx_Warrior]

[Ivanhater]

Euro develops the one behind 98L. Drops 98L..

Looking at satellite trends and the bump up to 50 percent, this may be a case where the models missed it.

[ColinDelia]

This was the output from the 0z CMC through 144 hours

TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 000, 121N, 326W, 15, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 006, 109N, 336W, 16, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 012, 111N, 339W, 17, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 018, 118N, 339W, 17, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 024, 123N, 338W, 18, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 030, 129N, 347W, 17, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 036, 129N, 352W, 15, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 042, 130N, 354W, 15, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 048, 131N, 359W, 19, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 054, 133N, 362W, 19, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 060, 139N, 370W, 19, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 066, 140N, 378W, 20, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 072, 141N, 387W, 23, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 078, 140N, 399W, 23, 1007, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 084, 140N, 409W, 25, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 090, 140N, 419W, 23, 1007, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 096, 139N, 429W, 27, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 102, 139N, 440W, 29, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 108, 139N, 450W, 28, 1007, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 114, 140N, 460W, 28, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 120, 135N, 472W, 31, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 126, 137N, 482W, 33, 1002, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 132, 139N, 492W, 38, 1002, XX, 34, NEQ, 0127, 0000, 0000, 0082, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 138, 141N, 509W, 38, 1001, XX, 34, NEQ, 0146, 0000, 0000, 0123, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,008, 2010090100, 03, CMC, 144, 146N, 521W, 39, 1001, XX, 34, NEQ, 0104, 0075, 0000, 0101, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF

[ColinDelia]

GFS 96 hours - 9/5. Around 50 W.

[AJC3]

Euro develops the one behind 98L. Drops 98L..

Looking at satellite trends and the bump up to 50 percent, this may be a case where the models missed it.

Actually, the high-res data from the Euro shows that it develops both 98L and the wave behind it, but moves both very, very slowly. It basically sits the lead system in place for the first three days, which looks pretty dubious.

At H72 (day 3) the ECM shows 1009MB lows near 13N 36W and 13N 23W
By H144 (day 6) the lows have only made it to 12N 44W and 16N 25W
By H216 (day 9) the lows have crept westward to 17N 47W and 15N 32W

Over those 6 days, the ECM-advertised forward speed of these lows is only about 10kt and 9kt, respectively.

[HURAKAN]

GFDL


HWRF


Very slowly

[Evil Jeremy]

SFWMD is feeling generous enough to point the Hebert Box out to us:

[CajunMama]

Evil, it's actually Hebert Box. I know that because Hebert (ay-bear) is a popular name around here. For those who don't know what the Hebert Box is... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box It is interesting that they did add it to the graphic though.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

654
WHXX01 KWBC 011301
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1301 UTC WED SEP 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20100901 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100901  1200   100902  0000   100902  1200   100903  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  35.2W   12.6N  37.4W   12.6N  39.3W   12.5N  41.0W
BAMD    12.3N  35.2W   13.2N  37.0W   14.0N  38.2W   14.8N  39.2W
BAMM    12.3N  35.2W   12.8N  37.2W   13.2N  38.7W   13.5N  39.9W
LBAR    12.3N  35.2W   12.9N  37.6W   13.5N  39.9W   14.2N  42.1W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          42KTS          46KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          42KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100903  1200   100904  1200   100905  1200   100906  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N  42.8W   12.8N  46.6W   13.2N  51.5W   13.6N  57.2W
BAMD    15.8N  40.6W   18.4N  43.9W   20.2N  46.9W   20.1N  50.4W
BAMM    13.9N  41.4W   15.1N  45.0W   16.4N  49.6W   16.9N  54.9W
LBAR    15.2N  44.0W   18.4N  47.6W   22.6N  50.6W   25.5N  51.3W
SHIP        49KTS          55KTS          59KTS          64KTS
DSHP        49KTS          55KTS          59KTS          64KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  35.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 =  32.1W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  11.2N LONM24 =  29.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



[tolakram]

Ivanhater post imageshack images, not the direct links. We're losing history here.


0Z 72 hours

CMC


Euro


GFS


NOGAPS

[SkeetoBite]

Our system just picked up a re-number for this to AL09

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

133
WHXX01 KWBC 011312
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1312 UTC WED SEP 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092010) 20100901 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100901  1200   100902  0000   100902  1200   100903  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  35.2W   12.6N  37.4W   12.6N  39.3W   12.5N  41.0W
BAMD    12.3N  35.2W   13.2N  37.0W   14.0N  38.2W   14.8N  39.2W
BAMM    12.3N  35.2W   12.8N  37.2W   13.2N  38.7W   13.5N  39.9W
LBAR    12.3N  35.2W   12.9N  37.6W   13.5N  39.9W   14.2N  42.1W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          42KTS          46KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          42KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100903  1200   100904  1200   100905  1200   100906  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N  42.8W   12.8N  46.6W   13.2N  51.5W   13.6N  57.2W
BAMD    15.8N  40.6W   18.4N  43.9W   20.2N  46.9W   20.1N  50.4W
BAMM    13.9N  41.4W   15.1N  45.0W   16.4N  49.6W   16.9N  54.9W
LBAR    15.2N  44.0W   18.4N  47.6W   22.6N  50.6W   25.5N  51.3W
SHIP        49KTS          55KTS          59KTS          64KTS
DSHP        49KTS          55KTS          59KTS          64KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  35.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 =  32.1W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  11.2N LONM24 =  29.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[ConvergenceZone]

I just had a chance to look at all the track maps myself.
It does look like IF(and that's a big if) this does develop, it's highly unlikely that it's going to recurve. This is the first invest I've seen in awhile where most of the tracks were not headed out to sea.....

[hurricaneCW]

Unfortunately this one could pound the Leewards once again.

[Plant grower]

I just had a chance to look at all the track maps myself.
It does look like IF(and that's a big if) this does develop, it's highly unlikely that it's going to recurve. This is the first invest I've seen in awhile where most of the tracks were not headed out to sea.....

What do you mean by developed storm or hurricane?. We do have TD 9 already with more model support coming on board.

[ConvergenceZone]

I just had a chance to look at all the track maps myself.
It does look like IF(and that's a big if) this does develop, it's highly unlikely that it's going to recurve. This is the first invest I've seen in awhile where most of the tracks were not headed out to sea.....

What do you mean by developed storm or hurricane?. We do have TD 9 already with more model support coming on board.

hehe yea sorry, the model thread was the first thread that I looked at this morning before it got upgraded

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml
This time The GFS is picking up on TD 9