ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re:
artist wrote:what's that coming off the coast there? They just keep coming!
Is peaktime now.
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- ColinDelia
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One thing it has got going for it is some decent inflow from the ITCZ region which is probably what is helping it to thus far stave off the dry air to the north of it.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion
ColinDelia wrote:Any thoughts on changes to 10% at 8pm?
Up to 30%.
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SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re:
blazess556 wrote:SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
Some stronger language as the "Development if any will be slow to occur" is gone.
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- ColinDelia
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Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:blazess556 wrote:SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
Some stronger language as the "Development if any will be slow to occur" is gone.
Yeah maybe taking it up a notch now ... to slow instead of slower
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion
Bit off topic, but I like this percentage system-very objective. I remember analyzing TWOs back in the day (before this year) trying to parse words figuring out whether the NHC was more bullish or bearish. But now, presto, 10% to 20%. Easy to tell what they are thinking.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion
This one should definitely be slow to organize but then again it could quickly ramp up. I mean it took several days for 97L to become Fiona and yet Earl rapidly organized right off the African coast and quickly became a TD not to far west of the Cape Verde islands.
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- srainhoutx
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion
Looks like our first potential for a CC this season. Low latitude and slow development with model support. I'll be watching.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion
srainhoutx wrote:Looks like our first potential for a CC this season. Low latitude and slow development with model support. I'll be watching.
The heat content in the Caribbean very high...
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion
................................................................How come 98L isn't on the S2K map??
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion
I asked a similar question about why Earl wasn’t being depicted as a hurricane when it had been one for some hours. I guess there’s a lot involved in updating the graphics, I don’t know.Ixolib wrote:http://www.storm2k.org/weather//images/tropical/plotsystemforecast_nt_pz_pa_2010_active_invests_fulltropics_merc_640x280_640_480.jpg
................................................................How come 98L isn't on the S2K map??
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion
Ixolib wrote:
................................................................How come 98L isn't on the S2K map??
That graphic works in an automated way,but I dont know why 98L is not showing.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion
00z Best Track
AL, 98, 2010090100, , BEST, 0, 122N, 321W, 25, 1008, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
AL, 98, 2010090100, , BEST, 0, 122N, 321W, 25, 1008, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
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