ATL: FIONA - Models

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#81 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:28 pm

EURO coming in.....NOGAPS has been left bias all year but I am leaning that way right now. To hold a pattern off the EC for 3 storms seems unlikely to me....
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#82 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:47 pm

12 Euro Day 6...looks like easy recuravture well NE of the islands..



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#83 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:56 pm

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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#84 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:56 pm

12z ECMWF at 240 hours. Here is Fiona.

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#85 Postby Scorpion » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:59 pm

Wow... that would probably be of quite historic magnitude. Good-bye Outer Banks on this run.
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#86 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:59 pm

Heading for the coast on this run....Euro for the past couple runs have this not recurving and heading for the U.S. Remember a couple days ago it had 97L recurving pretty far east....this is the one to watch imo...
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#87 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:02 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Heading for the coast on this run....Euro for the past couple runs have this not recurving and heading for the U.S. Remember a couple days agi it had 97L recurving pretty far east....this is the one to watch imo...


Is Fiona heading WNW or N at 240, looks like it is going to "Brush" the Outerbanks on that run, not landfall.
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#88 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:07 pm

I am shocked the Euro is remarkably similar to the 0z... disturbing.
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#89 Postby ColinDelia » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:07 pm

nm. wrong run
Last edited by ColinDelia on Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#90 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:07 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Heading for the coast on this run....Euro for the past couple runs have this not recurving and heading for the U.S. Remember a couple days agi it had 97L recurving pretty far east....this is the one to watch imo...


Is Fiona heading WNW or N at 240, looks like it is going to "Brush" the Outerbanks on that run, not landfall.



Here is the complete run at loop.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#91 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:07 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Heading for the coast on this run....Euro for the past couple runs have this not recurving and heading for the U.S. Remember a couple days agi it had 97L recurving pretty far east....this is the one to watch imo...


Is Fiona heading WNW or N at 240, looks like it is going to "Brush" the Outerbanks on that run, not landfall.


Looks to be WNW with a ridge to the north. 240 hours out though, plenty of time to watch...
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#92 Postby BigA » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:12 pm

Looks like a similar angle of attack to Isabel (and a similar size) on the 12z ECMWF run. That is a monster hurricane.
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#93 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:13 pm

It seems the 12z run is pretty similar to the 00z run, just the expected wobbles in latitude in the long range.
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#94 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:19 pm

:eek:

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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#95 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:21 pm

926 mb :double:
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#96 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:22 pm

Can you see JB right now :D
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Re: ATL: 97L - Models

#97 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:23 pm

Actually, if you can believe it, the 926 mb is a weaker storm

908mb at 216 hours!!

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#98 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:28 pm

that is sick! Also, I wouldn't be surprised if later runs shift a bit further SW in the longer term....So we have nogaps, candaian, and euro that are beginning to convervge on a very intense hurricane over the sw atlantic or near the bahamas late labor day weekend....
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#99 Postby Cyclone1 » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:29 pm

Nine hundred and EIGHT...
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Re:

#100 Postby perk » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:31 pm

Vortex wrote:that is sick! Also, I wouldn't be surprised if later runs shift a bit further SW in the longer term....So we have nogaps, candaian, and euro that are beginning to convervge on a very intense hurricane over the sw atlantic or near the bahamas late labor day weekend....



Yeah if these type of runs continue the LABOR DAY weekend is gonna be interesting. :eek:
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