ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Oh I agree but its a 2 way thing on the ECM, its both very weak compared to the other models and also stronger with the ridging for sure.
The 18z usually is pretty close to the 12z ECM I've noticed in the past so this maybe a little clue if anything is changing synoptically...
Fun times, bring on the crow if it happens haha!
ps, Ronjon the 12z is suggesting a pattern change, its the first run that really does suggest a much larger threat.
The 18z usually is pretty close to the 12z ECM I've noticed in the past so this maybe a little clue if anything is changing synoptically...
Fun times, bring on the crow if it happens haha!
ps, Ronjon the 12z is suggesting a pattern change, its the first run that really does suggest a much larger threat.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - MODELS
Totally agree. I'll wait for a few EURO runs before it happens, but certainly entertaining at this point.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - MODELS
NOLA2010 wrote:The EURO always seems to be very west biased though
Yeah thats true from what I've noticed of the model overtime...
Still its a plauseable solution if the upper high were to develop instead of troughing...but it is a totally different solution from every other model...
Its the ECM vs every other model out there...I know the ECM is good...but for now I'd still have to side with all the others, esp giving what every other ECM run has done in the last 5 days as well...
So are we going to take one run of the ECM over every other model run for the ;last 5 days...hmmm....not just yet I wouldn't but certainly can't dismiss...
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- Typhoon_Willie
- Category 5
- Posts: 1042
- Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:19 pm
- Location: Greenacres City, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - MODELS
Looks like we may have some interesting days coming ahead here. Like some people have said here we will have to follow how the computer models trend over the next few days.
0 likes
Re:
KWT wrote:Oh I agree but its a 2 way thing on the ECM, its both very weak compared to the other models and also stronger with the ridging for sure.
The 18z usually is pretty close to the 12z ECM I've noticed in the past so this maybe a little clue if anything is changing synoptically...
Fun times, bring on the crow if it happens haha!
ps, Ronjon the 12z is suggesting a pattern change, its the first run that really does suggest a much larger threat.
Oh KWT, you know I'm just pulling your chain. The Euro could flip back tomorrow to the strong trof and I'll have some explainin' to do. It's one run but I peaked at the 10-15 day CMC ensemble run and it showed a pattern change (more western atlantic ridging) plus the last 3 or 4 GFS ensemble runs have us transitioning into a positive NAO which translates to stronger ridging. We shall see.
0 likes
Oh I agree about a possible pattern change.
Something else to note is if this one doesn't pick up much latitude at all for the first 4 days then the first trough won't be enough to lift it out enough...all the models now agree with that and it seems reasonable hence why I never thought it would recurve before 55W...my call was between 60-70W and thats where I'll stick now.
The main difference comes as soon as 120-144hrs on tonights runs, with the 12z ECM actually developing a slight upper ridge near 60W...whilst all the other models have the polar opposite!
Now I will agree with anyone who says we cannot be certain because we have lost 100% model agreement.
Something else to note is if this one doesn't pick up much latitude at all for the first 4 days then the first trough won't be enough to lift it out enough...all the models now agree with that and it seems reasonable hence why I never thought it would recurve before 55W...my call was between 60-70W and thats where I'll stick now.
The main difference comes as soon as 120-144hrs on tonights runs, with the 12z ECM actually developing a slight upper ridge near 60W...whilst all the other models have the polar opposite!
Now I will agree with anyone who says we cannot be certain because we have lost 100% model agreement.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
Of course if the ECM is right...its about as strong as Bonnie was at the same point by 240hrs!
Difference being conditions look good for strengthening on the 12z ECM, Bonnie's was a disgracefully poor set-up to strengthen in.
Difference being conditions look good for strengthening on the 12z ECM, Bonnie's was a disgracefully poor set-up to strengthen in.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- terrapintransit
- Category 1
- Posts: 275
- Age: 49
- Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 8:08 pm
- Location: Williamsport, Pa
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - MODELS
Wx_Warrior wrote:If this EURO 500 is right, this is GOM bound.
According to Weather Undergrounds model runs, it appears to possibly be a fish at this point...
0 likes
Aaron
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - MODELS
terrapintransit wrote:Wx_Warrior wrote:If this EURO 500 is right, this is GOM bound.
According to Weather Undergrounds model runs, it appears to possibly be a fish at this point...
as do all other models....a few days ago, I couldnt budge from a recurve scenario given all of the guidance....but with one rogue run of the ECM I am aboard now.....whos with me?????
0 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9877
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: Re:
gatorcane wrote:KWT wrote:Yah but Gatorcane it weakens to a barely closed low on this run...which is a massive flip from every other model and also its on previous operational runs.
However its the Euro so lets not totally dismiss it for showing something different...its the nightmare set-up though, a bit like Andrew where it nearly dies in the Atlantic and by the time it strengthens the set-up aloft suddenly is more condusive to send it westwards.
Euro at 240 hours...strong ridge to the north, headed west towards the Bahamas but weak, however, there would be plenty of time for it to strengthen if it were to head towards Florida:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0082012!!/
Kinda hard to give any credit to that run, the low crosses 20N around 45W. How many systems have crossed 20N around 45W and move as far west as the Bahamas? Very low probability of that run.
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Haha not even close yet Rock, I want at least 2 runs from the ECM to even entertain the thought.
Interesting, but totally against all other guidence and could easily be an outlier!
Interesting, but totally against all other guidence and could easily be an outlier!
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: Re:
Blown Away wrote:gatorcane wrote:KWT wrote:Yah but Gatorcane it weakens to a barely closed low on this run...which is a massive flip from every other model and also its on previous operational runs.
However its the Euro so lets not totally dismiss it for showing something different...its the nightmare set-up though, a bit like Andrew where it nearly dies in the Atlantic and by the time it strengthens the set-up aloft suddenly is more condusive to send it westwards.
Euro at 240 hours...strong ridge to the north, headed west towards the Bahamas but weak, however, there would be plenty of time for it to strengthen if it were to head towards Florida:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0082012!!/
Kinda hard to give any credit to that run, the low crosses 20N around 45W. How many systems have crossed 20N around 45W and move as far west as the Bahamas? Very low probability of that run.
IKE.....
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6356
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - MODELS
It's not just one run of any model...again it's the trend.
Yesterday, the GFS, Euro and others had a gigantic trough over the western Atlantic and a huge hurricane-like feature weakening the ridge...from the north over the central Atlantic.
Last night, the GFS was still on that idea, but the Euro left some ridging behind and trapped the cyclone out to t+240
Today, the GFS no longer develops the north Atlantic hurricane feature...and the Euro is even stronger with the W Atlantic ridge than it was last night. The GFS leaves more ridging in the west Atlantic too..
The models are going to change, again, I assure you of that.
But watch the trend...and right now the trend is away from gigantic trough and strange looking upper disturbance weakening the ridge.
We, of course, have no choice but to keep watching...but I would suggest stop looking at any specific model track in the extended, and look at the trend toward how the steering features are developing in the models.
MW
Yesterday, the GFS, Euro and others had a gigantic trough over the western Atlantic and a huge hurricane-like feature weakening the ridge...from the north over the central Atlantic.
Last night, the GFS was still on that idea, but the Euro left some ridging behind and trapped the cyclone out to t+240
Today, the GFS no longer develops the north Atlantic hurricane feature...and the Euro is even stronger with the W Atlantic ridge than it was last night. The GFS leaves more ridging in the west Atlantic too..
The models are going to change, again, I assure you of that.
But watch the trend...and right now the trend is away from gigantic trough and strange looking upper disturbance weakening the ridge.
We, of course, have no choice but to keep watching...but I would suggest stop looking at any specific model track in the extended, and look at the trend toward how the steering features are developing in the models.
MW
0 likes
Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
- Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 10859
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - MODELS
Didn't Andrew, Frances and Jeanne all look like fish too. It's not even a close call on the Euro...nothing but ridging pushing it west.
Now, hopefully everyone has gotten off the "for sure" and "certainty" train and back to analyzing the models
Now, hopefully everyone has gotten off the "for sure" and "certainty" train and back to analyzing the models
0 likes
Michael
- Typhoon_Willie
- Category 5
- Posts: 1042
- Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:19 pm
- Location: Greenacres City, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - MODELS
Heck Ivanhater throw in Hurricane Betsy as well he he. That storm sure looked to be a fish until high pressure turned it into Fla.
0 likes
Re: Re:
ROCK wrote:
IKE.....
Yeah though that didn't get to 20N till 45W so it don't count!
Honestly though if it were to get to 60W at 20N then the odds of a threat do relaly increase, esp if the system does find itself beneath a developing upper high...FWIW the CMC 12z do suggest the upper high builds back a little by 240hrs, still not exactly strong but its there.
The ECM doesn't make no sense though in making it so weak, shear certainly isn't a problem on the 12z ECM, it just probably can't gel together very well because of the various vort features...who knows I suppose its possible.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests