SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F/19P)

[senorpepr]

500
TXPS24 KNES 141520


A. 19P (TOMAS)

B. 14/1430Z

C. 14.9S

D. 179.4W

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS... OW EYE EMBEDDED IN B AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR DT=6.0.
MET=5.5 WITH PT=6.0. FT BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an impressive tropical cyclone. Kinda reminds me of Ike, but smaller.

Tomas is a Category 3 tropical cyclone.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 01019.html

339

wtps32 pgtw 141500
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone 19p (tomas) warning nr 007//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 19p (tomas) warning nr 007
02 active tropical cyclones in southpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
141200z --- near 14.5s 179.4w
movement past six hours - 180 degrees at 04 kts
position accurate to within 040 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 100 kt, gusts 125 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
025 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
060 nm southwest quadrant
060 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 120 nm northeast quadrant
120 nm southeast quadrant
110 nm southwest quadrant
110 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 14.5s 179.4w

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 14/1414 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 950 HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.3S 179.7W AT 141200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80
KNOTS INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND
BANDING EYE. CYCLONE LIES OVER A WEAKLY SHEARED AND DIFFLUENT
ENVIROMENT. SST 30C. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.4
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON
DT, THUS T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWEST TRACK
AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 15.4S 180.0E MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 16.4S 179.7E MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 17.6S 179.4E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 19.3S 179.5E MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AT
142030 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Derek Ortt]

looks closer to 100KT now... about to blast Fiji

[DazzaMc]

The NZ media is now calling a Cat 4 system - but I cant see it.

According to JTWC the top winds should be around 110 knots (126 mph - 203 kph) - that's still a Cat 3 storm isn't it?!

[Sheronz]

source: http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html

Cat 4 now in force for TC Tomas.

[Macrocane]

It looks amazing and it seems that the intensification trend will continue. I hope the best for Fiji.

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 14/2043 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 940 HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.2S 179.5W AT 141800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 105 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO
STRENGHTEN FURTHER. CYCLONE LIES OVER A WEAKLY SHEARED AND DIFFLUENT
ENVIROMENT. SST 30C. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTHERLY BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON THE DT OF 5.5 WITH OW EYE SURROUNDED
BY LG. MET AND PAT 5.5, THUS T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS. THE CONCENSUS OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHERLY TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION. BUT
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A INCREASINGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKEN SOUTH OF 20S.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 16.3S 179.6W MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 17.6S 179.7W MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 105 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 19.2S 179.6W MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 21.4S 179.0W MOV S AT 10 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AT
150230 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

Due to its large size and probably large RMW, I think the winds would be a bit less than what Dvorak suggests, although the pressure is probably quite low as well. If assessed at T5.5, I would guess 95 kt for the intensity.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

14/2030 UTC 15.2S 179.3W T6.0/6.0 TOMAS -- Southeast Pacific

115 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HurricaneBill]

Looks like Tomas is taking a path similar to Cyclone Ami in 2003.

[Sheronz]

source: http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 15/0244 UTC 2010 UTC.

********** CORRECTION TO ADVISORY NUMBER ***********

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 930 HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.5S 179.4W AT 150000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS/GOES
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH 05 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 95
KNOTS INCREASING TO 105 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONE LIES OVER A
WEAKLY SHEARED AND DIFFLUENT ENVIROMENT. SST 30C. SYSTEM STEERED
SOUTHERLY BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON THE
DT OF 5.5, MET AND PAT 5.5, THUS T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS. THE CONCENSUS
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHERLY TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION.
BUT THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A INCREASINGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKEN SOUTH OF 20S.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 16.7S 179.4W MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 100 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 18.0S 179.5W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 105 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 20.0S 179.3W MOV S AT 10 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 22.5S 177.8W MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AT
150830 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 15/0828 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 930 HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.1S 179.5W AT 150600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 95 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 105 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. CYCLONE LIES
OVER A WEAKLY SHEARED AND DIFFLUENT ENVIROMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL
SECTORS. SST 30C. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTHERLY BY THE DEEP NORTHERLY
LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE AND LG SURROUND
YIELDING DT5.5, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS. THE CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
SOUTHERLY TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO INCREASING SHEAR AND WEAKEN SOUTH OF 20S.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 17.3S 179.6W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 100 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 19.1S 179.5W MOV S AT 10 KT WITH 105 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 21.6S 178.6W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 24.9S 176.2W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AT
151430 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Looks like Tomas may have weakened a little recently, I'd guess Fiji possibly has somewhat disrupted its circulation. Still the eye has filled in as well and it doesn't look quite as defined as yesterday.