ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[vacanechaser]

If this system holds together where are the models projecting it will make landfall? The FL panhandle or possibly further to the west like my neck of the woods or not?

Doesn't matter if it holds together or not, you may get some rain out of it tomorrow afternoon/night. I calculate it'll be inland within 18-24 hrs between SE LA and the central FL Panhandle. Could be bordering on TD strength/status as it moves ashore. Slight chance of weak TS. More likely just a weak low pressure area moving inland closer to noon or early afternoon. No significant wind over land, just rain.

how soon we forget humberto... thats all i have to say... tighening up nicely on radar images.. we will see what happens...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

If this system holds together where are the models projecting it will make landfall? The FL panhandle or possibly further to the west like my neck of the woods or not?

Doesn't matter if it holds together or not, you may get some rain out of it tomorrow afternoon/night. I calculate it'll be inland within 18-24 hrs between SE LA and the central FL Panhandle. Could be bordering on TD strength/status as it moves ashore. Slight chance of weak TS. More likely just a weak low pressure area moving inland closer to noon or early afternoon. No significant wind over land, just rain.

how soon we forget humberto... thats all i have to say... tighening up nicely on radar images.. we will see what happens...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

yeah seriously.. dont know about jesse but radar is becoming a little more interesting in the last hour...

[Plant grower]

WOW that is a TD developing on our door step! ,and it is developing fast.

[attallaman]

If this system holds together where are the models projecting it will make landfall? The FL panhandle or possibly further to the west like my neck of the woods or not?

Doesn't matter if it holds together or not, you may get some rain out of it tomorrow afternoon/night. I calculate it'll be inland within 18-24 hrs between SE LA and the central FL Panhandle. Could be bordering on TD strength/status as it moves ashore. Slight chance of weak TS. More likely just a weak low pressure area moving inland closer to noon or early afternoon. No significant wind over land, just rain.

So I might experience more like typical heavy afternoon thunderstorms rather than squall type conditions?

[Frank P]

also the last few loops of the radar definitely show more of a NW or even WNW motion or bobble (first bobble call of the year.. ha) ... albeit hard to really tell... overall the system to me looks to be moving NW... a TS is not unreasonable at all given the overall presentation at this time..

[wxman57]

Here's a surface plot/satellite. Crosshairs are where I see some rotation. Pressures in the area 1014-1015mb. Buoy close by has wind blowing away from the weak low pressure. A 24hr satellite loop has the vorticity center moving about 330 miles toward 330 degrees. A continuation of that movement puts it ashore near the MS/AL coasts in less than 24 hrs (310 miles to land). Wouldn't be surprised if it makes TD status with 25-35 mph over water (15-20 over land) before it moves ashore. Just a rain threat, though.

[smw1981]

If this system holds together where are the models projecting it will make landfall? The FL panhandle or possibly further to the west like my neck of the woods or not?

Doesn't matter if it holds together or not, you may get some rain out of it tomorrow afternoon/night. I calculate it'll be inland within 18-24 hrs between SE LA and the central FL Panhandle. Could be bordering on TD strength/status as it moves ashore. Slight chance of weak TS. More likely just a weak low pressure area moving inland closer to noon or early afternoon. No significant wind over land, just rain.

So I might experience more like typical heavy afternoon thunderstorms rather than squall type conditions?

If it makes it that far west, then yes. Depends on which direction it decides to stick with! But I would say that is the most likely scenario...just some rain (which we could use)...

[JonathanBelles]

WOW, so I just got home and took a crap when I looked at radar lol. Looks like a TD/S. If anyone has 3D radar and can get a shot of the underside of this system, please post it. I'm very interested in seeing it.

[Aric Dunn]

figured i would post this..

[smw1981]

If this system holds together where are the models projecting it will make landfall? The FL panhandle or possibly further to the west like my neck of the woods or not?

Doesn't matter if it holds together or not, you may get some rain out of it tomorrow afternoon/night. I calculate it'll be inland within 18-24 hrs between SE LA and the central FL Panhandle. Could be bordering on TD strength/status as it moves ashore. Slight chance of weak TS. More likely just a weak low pressure area moving inland closer to noon or early afternoon. No significant wind over land, just rain.

So I might experience more like typical heavy afternoon thunderstorms rather than squall type conditions?

If it makes it that far west, then yes. Depends on which direction it decides to stick with! But I would say that is the most likely scenario...just some rain (which we could use)...

[vacanechaser]

figured i would post this..

nice



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[clfenwi]

That observation close to wxman57's center estimate was from a ship, btw

[Evil Jeremy]

Things are popping up quickly, wow.

[attallaman]

Well I remember what Isidore and Lily did to my area back in September 2002, a TS can do some serious damage. I can't remember which one of the systems did a significant amount of damage to the old Treasure Bay Casino ship but what wasn't done to the ship back in 2002 Katrina took care of in 2005.

[MWatkins]

I agree with Jesse, discounting these systems at this time of year is a dangerous idea. Humberto should have reminded everyone of that.

I think there needs to be a shift in the way these things get explained. Often the experts here make a great, well forumuated case for what they believe will happen, but discount all other solutions.

This will most probably not be a huge deal, but I think it is worth remembering (and pointing out wherever possible) that tropical systems can and will develop rapidly in the middle of August over 32C water.

MW

[Aric Dunn]

I agree with Jesse, discounting these systems at this time of year is a dangerous idea. Humberto should have reminded everyone of that.

I think there needs to be a shift in the way these things get explained. Often the experts here make a great, well forumuated case for what they believe will happen, but discount all other solutions.

This will most probably not be a huge deal, but I think it is worth remembering (and pointing out wherever possible) that tropical systems can and will develop rapidly in the middle of August over 32C water.

MW

Amen.,...

[Nimbus]

This reminds me of another gulf storm that developed a fairly low central pressure in a tiny center for some reason.

[Derek Ortt]

worth watching this. This looks better than I had thought it would

Good thing I was getting up at 3:30 anyways, lol

[wxman57]

That observation close to wxman57's center estimate was from a ship, btw

Correct, the deepwater buoys are west of the crosshairs.

[smw1981]

I agree with Jesse, discounting these systems at this time of year is a dangerous idea. Humberto should have reminded everyone of that.

I think there needs to be a shift in the way these things get explained. Often the experts here make a great, well forumuated case for what they believe will happen, but discount all other solutions.

This will most probably not be a huge deal, but I think it is worth remembering (and pointing out wherever possible) that tropical systems can and will develop rapidly in the middle of August over 32C water.

MW

Amen.,...

Haha..I do agree with you..just hoping I'm not waking up tomorrow with a well-formed TS/Cat 1 tomorrow!! Hopefully s/he just wont have enough time to get anything going before it hits land again, but it is definitely popping right now Aric!