ATL: GASTON - Models

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS still advertises an open wave impacting the Islands

[ColinDelia]

12z GFS has the upper level high continuing west and kicking the ULL to Jamaica in 48 hours

That will be interesting to see confirmed (if so)

[caneseddy]

12Z loses Gaston in the Caribbean at 78 hours

[x-y-no]

I'm thinking ex-Gaston is too small for the GFS to see it properly in the initialization. The way this thing is hanging on, I don't really see it dissipating, especially if the TUTT backs off like the GFS indicates.

So the question is, how would the track of a developed TS differ from that of an open wave? My inclination given the fact that the forecast mid-level ridging doesn't look super strong is that we're looking at something a little more north - perhaps brushing the NE leewards again.

[ROCK]

Didnt the GFS have a hard time with Earl or was it Fiona just going by size.....I think you might be on to something X-Y-O....too small for the models to pick up on....for now...I think the 18z GFS will see it now since its gaining convection...

[gatorcane]

Didnt the GFS have a hard time with Earl or was it Fiona just going by size.....I think you might be on to something X-Y-O....too small for the models to pick up on....for now...I think the 18z GFS will see it now since its gaining convection...

Don't forget previous runs of the GFS even as recent as 24 hours ago showed a formidable hurricane in the SE Bahamas moving slowly WNW. It also showed for run-after-run a hurricane into Puerto Rico. I think 11 runs in a row or something? I think the GFS is definitely having a problem resolving this situation. The hurricane models are forecasting development.

[Blown Away]

Didnt the GFS have a hard time with Earl or was it Fiona just going by size.....I think you might be on to something X-Y-O....too small for the models to pick up on....for now...I think the 18z GFS will see it now since its gaining convection...

Don't forget previous runs of the GFS even as recent as 24 hours ago showed a formidable hurricane in the SE Bahamas moving slowly WNW. It also showed for run-after-run a hurricane into Puerto Rico. I think 11 runs in a row or something? I think the GFS is definitely having a problem resolving this situation. The hurricane models are forecasting development.

Since most models don't really develop until the islands, maybe the GFS is seeing to much PR/DR/Cuba land interaction to develop? BTW I see a little N of due west with the movement.

[perk]

Didnt the GFS have a hard time with Earl or was it Fiona just going by size.....I think you might be on to something X-Y-O....too small for the models to pick up on....for now...I think the 18z GFS will see it now since its gaining convection...

Don't forget previous runs of the GFS even as recent as 24 hours ago showed a formidable hurricane in the SE Bahamas moving slowly WNW. It also showed for run-after-run a hurricane into Puerto Rico. I think 11 runs in a row or something? I think the GFS is definitely having a problem resolving this situation. The hurricane models are forecasting development.

Yeah don't forget the Texas/Mexico hit a few days ago.

[lonelymike]

Didnt the GFS have a hard time with Earl or was it Fiona just going by size.....I think you might be on to something X-Y-O....too small for the models to pick up on....for now...I think the 18z GFS will see it now since its gaining convection...

Don't forget previous runs of the GFS even as recent as 24 hours ago showed a formidable hurricane in the SE Bahamas moving slowly WNW. It also showed for run-after-run a hurricane into Puerto Rico. I think 11 runs in a row or something? I think the GFS is definitely having a problem resolving this situation. The hurricane models are forecasting development.

As you well know the GFDL and HRWF are run off the GFS. So are you saying split personality?

[ROCK]

Didnt the GFS have a hard time with Earl or was it Fiona just going by size.....I think you might be on to something X-Y-O....too small for the models to pick up on....for now...I think the 18z GFS will see it now since its gaining convection...

Don't forget previous runs of the GFS even as recent as 24 hours ago showed a formidable hurricane in the SE Bahamas moving slowly WNW. It also showed for run-after-run a hurricane into Puerto Rico. I think 11 runs in a row or something? I think the GFS is definitely having a problem resolving this situation. The hurricane models are forecasting development.

Since most models don't really develop until the islands, maybe the GFS is seeing to much PR/DR/Cuba land interaction to develop? BTW I see a little N of due west with the movement.

this was a hint there of a slight north component but looks like it has looped around now and heading west again....I would venture to guess the center would hop around some...the ridge to the north isnt exactly smooth and the center would try to relocate to the lower pressures of the convection.

[KWT]

HWRF develops this to a moderate TS, hits the Leeward Islands then PR and then starts what looks like a recurve at 126hrs, so we'd probably need a weaker system then what the HWRF for this one to miss the connection...or for it to end up south of where its forecasting in the first place.

[perk]

The NHC says west and i looked at the visible and saw no northerly movement.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL bombs it near Jamaica.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[ROCK]

12z GFDL bombs it near Jamaica.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

if it misses that connection then watch out GOM...

[ROCK]

EURO out is a few minutes...maybe shed some light on all of this...

[Macrocane]

I don't know if the Euro will be helpful, this seems to be a tropical models versus global models war.

[rockyman]

Euro 72 hours (southwest of PR):

[KWT]

GFDL shows exactly why this one needs to be watched, that set-up there probably would suggest Gaston finds its way into the Gulf as a decent hurricane...

[rockyman]

Euro 96 hours--weak, SW of Haiti

Euro 120 hours--practically gone

[Blown Away]

Euro 96 hours--weak, SW of Haiti

Euro 120 hours--practically gone

Probably to much Haiti/Cuba land action!