ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah the convection is trying to catch back up with the LLC, I think that trend will continue FWIW and the convection will slowly get closer to the circulation. Once that happens and the LLC slows down a little we will probably see this one start to get stronger at a quicker pace...though for now I'd probably lower the winds a little just because of the displaced LLC.

[ColinDelia]

Ocean Heat Content

[ROCK]

as Dee get farther away...expect the ridge to nose down in between for awhile until Earl strengthens..then expect the gain in lat...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[KWT]

Plenty of heat content right out to 120hrs there CD for a major hurricane to come from Earl. Whilst I think the forecasts are a little agressive based on recent trends with the LLC becoming exposed, the end game IMO will still be something close to a major.

[Florida1118]

Down slightly to 55...

[Florida1118]

LOCATION...16.1N 53.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[Evil Jeremy]

Earl jumped to the WNW earlier, but I spy (with my untrained eyes) a movement back towards the west, maybe a hair north of west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[Brent]

Racing west and not gaining any latitude... I'm starting to doubt this misses the islands.

[Ivanhater]

Racing west and not gaining any latitude... I'm starting to doubt this misses the islands.

It will be hard not to hit. That's what happens when he keeps racing ahead of model guidance, track continues to inch south.

[Florida1118]

Ya 23mph is pretty dang fast and at W not WNW...I dont think The NE islands are gonna miss out on this.

[Frank2]

Hi again,

Per the NHC and VIS the LLC appears to be on a 280 heading:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

here's the WV loop that also shows a modest TUTT-like feature nosing slowly southwestward east of the Bahamas, so the environment for Earl is not quite as favorable as it was for Danielle:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Florida1118]

I think their track is a little better...

[knotimpaired]

Luis,

What is going on? I trust your opinion.

K

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Racing west and not gaining any latitude... I'm starting to doubt this misses the islands.

It will be hard not to hit. That's what happens when he keeps racing ahead of model guidance, track continues to inch south.

Yeah as I said in the model thread I don't think the models have a very good grip on Earl's forward motion, the GFS in particular looks too slow in the first 24-36hrs which may make the difference to the Islands.

Recon will be very interesting tomorrow, the hurricane models based of off the GFS suggests this system really strengthens out to 36hrs to a major hurricane but I'm having a hard time seeing it ramp up that quickly when it hasn't even got an inner core right now.

That being said from where it is now I can still see a hurricane from it...

[HurrMark]

Yeah, it's more likely that they will get a direct hit or at least a decent brush. But it should not be a hurricane at the closest approach, so that's good news.

[cycloneye]

Luis,

What is going on? I trust your opinion.

K

Well,I am not an expert, only an amateour person that likes to follow the tropics, but I can tell you that Earl poses a threat to the NE Caribbean islands as the westward motion has continued. It is possible that later today,additional TS Watches may be required for more islands. The good news is Earl is not gaining strengh at this time.

[knotimpaired]

Gusty,

How are things down there.

Have winds picked up?

K

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1590

Last Updated: 15:54 GMT le 28 août 2010 — Last Comment: 17:42 GMT le 28 août 2010
Earl a threat to the Lesser Antilles
Posted by: JeffMasters, 15:40 GMT le 28 août 2010

Tropical Storm Earl
The bigger concern in the Atlantic today is Tropical Storm Earl. Earl continues to follow a track very similar to Danielle's, but is now farther south than Danielle was. Recent satellite imagery shows the storm has changed little in organization this morning. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, and this dry air is keeping Earl's heavy thunderstorm activity relatively meager. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that northerly upper-level winds due to the outflow from Hurricane Danielle are creating a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Earl. This shear is keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of Earl's center of circulation. The center of circulation is now exposed to view, which is always a sign of a tropical storm struggling with high wind shear. The first flight into Earl is scheduled for 4pm EDT this afternoon, and will be a research mission by NOAA's P-3s. The NOAA jet will also fly tonight to sample the large-scale steering currents. The first regular hurricane hunting mission by the Air Force is scheduled for Sunday morning.


Intensity forecast for Earl
The latest SHIPS model forecast for Earl predicts that wind shear will remain moderate this afternoon, 10 - 15 knots, then fall a bit to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots through Monday, as Danielle pulls away and its upper-level outflow stops bringing northerly wind shear to Earl. This reduction in shear should allow the storm to build heavy thunderstorms around the entire center of circulation on Sunday, and close off Earl's core from the dry air to the northwest. SSTs will warm from 29°C today to nearly 30°C on Sunday. These very high SSTs, combined with the low shear environment expected Sunday and Monday, should allow to Earl to intensify into a hurricane by Monday. Earl will likely be a major hurricane by Tuesday and Wednesday, as it moves northwestward between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. As Earl approaches the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle will allow Earl the opportunity to move more to the west-northwest, likely bringing the core of the storm just to the northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands Sunday night and Monday morning. However, it is possible that Earl could move directly over some of these northernmost islands. NHC is giving Saint Maarten in the northern Lesser Antilles a 57% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds from Earl, and an 18% chance of getting hurricane force winds. Heavy rain squalls and tropical storm force winds should begin affecting the islands Saint Maarten, Barbuda, and Antigua late Sunday night. The odds of Earl bringing tropical storm force winds to Puerto Rico are lower--25%, according to NHC.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 30% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably more like 20%, due to the steering influence of a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted by the long-range GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm missing landfall. However, six-day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast Thursday or Friday. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday, or Massachusetts on Friday. The GFS model predicts that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, and it is possible that Earl could pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, as predicted by the GFS model, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl has higher than usual uncertainty because of the possibility of a storm-storm interaction with Fiona.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands

[MWatkins]

Tonight's the night. The synoptic mission into the environment around Earl happens tonight, and the 0Z models should come closer together.

My guess....total guess is the reason for the westward movement will get sniffed out tonight and we will see a leftward shift in most of the models.

Going to be up for the models tonight, to be sure.

MW