ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[KWT]

Actually uoir right Ivan there is a slight bend back to the NW right at the very end of the run, the last 6hrs more or less!

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 250043
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC WED AUG 25 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100825 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100825  0000   100825  1200   100826  0000   100826  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.9N  49.1W   19.4N  52.0W   20.5N  54.4W   21.3N  56.3W
BAMD    17.9N  49.1W   19.1N  51.2W   20.7N  53.2W   22.1N  55.2W
BAMM    17.9N  49.1W   19.2N  51.6W   20.6N  53.4W   21.8N  55.0W
LBAR    17.9N  49.1W   19.4N  51.7W   20.9N  54.5W   22.4N  57.1W
SHIP        65KTS          61KTS          63KTS          65KTS
DSHP        65KTS          61KTS          63KTS          65KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100827  0000   100828  0000   100829  0000   100830  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.2N  57.3W   25.9N  59.4W   29.9N  62.6W   29.5N  64.7W
BAMD    23.6N  57.1W   26.3N  61.3W   28.5N  63.6W   30.4N  64.0W
BAMM    23.5N  56.4W   27.0N  60.1W   30.0N  63.0W   30.5N  63.8W
LBAR    23.9N  59.4W   27.2N  62.9W   30.3N  62.6W   33.5N  59.6W
SHIP        70KTS          84KTS          93KTS          82KTS
DSHP        70KTS          84KTS          93KTS          82KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.9N LONCUR =  49.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  16.2N LONM12 =  45.8W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  15.5N LONM24 =  42.5W
WNDCUR =   65KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   75KT
CENPRS =  990MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =   90NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW =  90NM
 


[terrapintransit]

[cheezyWXguy]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201006_model.gif

what? thats not the gfs I saw...

[CrazyC83]

Looking at those models, it seems they try to bring it to New England before the trough finally comes in and sweeps it away...at least that keeps the I-95 corridor on the weaker side of the storm.

[Riptide]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201006_model.gif

what? thats not the gfs I saw...

Those are all 12z model tracks.

[cheezyWXguy]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201006_model.gif

what? thats not the gfs I saw...

Those are all 12z model tracks.

Ohh, lol didnt see that. Does it update for 18z?

[terrapintransit]

Ok...it's updated...

[AdamFirst]

We have a fork in the road, ladies and gentleman.

I hate to say this, but lets see what the EURO has to say

[hurricaneCW]

Let's just say hypothetically, the storm does impact the east coast. How strong could it possibly be? A tropical storm, a Cat 1, 2?

[CrazyC83]

Let's just say hypothetically, the storm does impact the east coast. How strong could it possibly be? A tropical storm, a Cat 1, 2?

Hard to say. Probably for such a large storm and not zooming up, Cat 1 seems most likely.

[Evil Jeremy]

The game, once again, has changed. Incredible. If this verifies, I don't think there is anyone without crow on their plates.

[terrapintransit]

I never ate crow...but then again..I'm still quite the newb

The game, once again, has changed. Incredible. If this verifies, I don't think there is anyone without crow on their plates.

[AdamFirst]

00z is going to be critical. I didn't see the 12z suites, were GFDL/NOGAPS/GFS starting to shift towards the US coast?

[jaxfladude]

WOW, just WOW, I Mean, WOW, and then some more WOW
That is if she goes all nasty and hits a landmass or two(CONUS/Canada/Bermuda) after all..WOW!

[TheDreamTraveler]

The ensembles are really widening now. especially to the west.

[cpdaman]

I mean with water temps....in the 60's off new england......and this thing moving slowly it would probably be equal to the 1992 nor'easter...the waves pounding would be quite impressive

[capepoint]

Really hope this does not verify, or at least stays well offshore until it get further north, Eastern NC has had WAY TOO MUCH RAIN over the last few days because of this little low parked off of Cape Lookout. If we were to get into the rain shield of Danielle next week, it could get ugly quick.

Don't need no more Dennis/Floyds.

[Steve]

>>...hate to say this, but lets see what the EURO has to say

12Z had it recurving pretty far east and same with the GEM/Canadian

[vacanechaser]

I mean with water temps....in the 60's off new england......and this thing moving slowly it would probably be equal to the 1992 nor'easter...the waves pounding would be quite impressive

if the trend westward continues, i would bet it will be further south and west... doubt the new england hit....





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team