ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Vortex]

18Z GFDL/HWRF...will be out in the next 30-45.....clarity on the way...I doubt it

[wxman57]

If Matthew doesn't slow down and start turning WNW it'll be inland over Nicaragua within 24 hrs.

[Aquawind]

Clarity.. Good one!

I assume that would be a good thing wxman57..maybe that turn won't happen..

[lonelymike]

I think it would be good news for the states not so good news for Nicaragua

[Vortex]

If Matthew doesn't slow down and start turning WNW it'll be inland over Nicaragua within 24 hrs.

Wxman,

What's the office think longer term trackwise?

[Aquawind]

:uarrow: I think it would be good news for the states not so good news for Nicaragua

Well Said..Although it's going to affect them either way so it may as well go inland an weaken versus just off the coast and strengthening..

[latitude_20]

Image loops look to me like it's holding to the projected track.

[Vortex]

right on track 280 at 16mph....that what i come up with as a mean the last 3 hours....maybe a tad faster than NHC...aligns very well with ECM

[Typhoon_Willie]

Any coastal radars form Nicaragua and Honduras?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aquawind]

Dang... Large with banding and deep convection firing near the center.. High Potential energy. Looks like the size alone is slowing the strengthening at this point like Alex..then again it was just classified 6 hours ago so..recon will be impressive in the morning..

[Vortex]

organizing nicely, excellent banding....

[jlauderdal]

Image loops look to me like it's holding to the projected track.

yep, they have been down there enough the last couple of days to have a handle on the steering currents

[SouthFLTropics]

One of the last visibles of the night is showing us a quickly developing system in the SW Caribbean. Take a good look before we lose visible for the night...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-vis.html

SFT

[plasticup]

Not a good part of the basin for a storm to be moving slowly over. These Yucatan systems are the worst.

Matthew is going at 16 mph; that's a pretty good clip. By contrast, Wilma was only moving 2 mph when she was at the same location (link)

[bob rulz]

Dang... Large with banding and deep convection firing near the center.. High Potential energy. Looks like the size alone is slowing the strengthening at this point like Alex..then again it was just classified 6 hours ago so..recon will be impressive in the morning..

I would hardly call this a slowly-strengthening storm and I'm very very surprised that the NHC held at 40mph at 8pm.

[Vortex]

Deep convection now firing over center...look out....

[cpdaman]

man we are crankin out the names......prob headed to 19 or so

matthew seems a bit large with not so much water in front of him.....i think it would have to thread the needle with the track and speed to stay over enough water to strengthen more than slowly .....

[Aquawind]

Dang... Large with banding and deep convection firing near the center.. High Potential energy. Looks like the size alone is slowing the strengthening at this point like Alex..then again it was just classified 6 hours ago so..recon will be impressive in the morning..

I would hardly call this a slowly-strengthening storm and I'm very very surprised that the NHC held at 40mph at 8pm.

You should know..they don't go by visuals alone..evidently the sat estimates don't support it and without recon or surface obs no change. They don't do alot guessing or assuming at the NHC.. it's just getting started as I mentioned..

[Aric Dunn]

fairly evident where the center was a couple hours ago.