ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[wxman57]

Maybe 16.5N/57.8W for Fiona at 2:30pm. The way its elongating to the NW, it may well get absorbed by Earl. Doesn't look like a TS today.

[Buck]

If Earl rips Fiona apart, I hope we can get a good, huge loop of Fiona's entire life and death.

[chrisnnavarre]

Earl looks east of track, and I think in the next six hours or so he will increase forward speed and pack it on out to the north...it's pretty obvious on visual satellite, he's going to be way early to his 01000z forecast point and very much east of it as well. This means that he's moving out of the way of Fiona at a pretty good clip...to the north as predicted yesterday afternoon by the Euro models I believe.

[ROCK]

this interaction is going to be intriguing as I dont recall to entities being so close to each other....well Wilma and Alpha back in 05.......one thing it for sure she is not slowing down for nothing and still racing west at 24mph....

[Gustywind]

[chrisnnavarre]

Anybody have an updated course and speed for Earl, maybe based on recon?

[HenkL]

Movement between the two VDMs, in 2 hours time: 19'N and 23'W

[TheBurn]

[Dean4Storms]

It doesn't look to me that Fiona is gaining much latitude.

[shah8]

Models sez it's not supposed to yet.

[chrisnnavarre]

It doesn't look to me that Fiona is gaining much latitude.

You've noticed that too, also if you go over to the Earl discussion it's pretty much obvious that he's moving more northward now and I really think he's picking up forward speed. I think by morning we're going to have some surprises with Fiona.

[wxman57]

Distance between Earl & Fiona (Centers):
0745Z - 940 miles
1945Z - 760 miles

Fiona is closing in on Earl fast. And the way Fiona's squalls are elongating to the NW indicates it may be well on its way to being absorbed by Earl.

[plasticup]

it may be well on its way to being absorbed by Earl.

What effect would that have on Earl?

[thetruesms]

Yeah, if Earl's going to get out of here and clear some room for Fiona, it's got to happen soon. It's pretty apparent that she's already starting to get sucked in.

The fact that Fiona's still moving almost twice as quickly makes me wonder if it's already too late, even with Earl gaining more latitude than before.

[HurrikaneBryce]

Is it possible we might see a Fujiwara effect between Earl and Fiona?

[chrisnnavarre]

Distance between Earl & Fiona (Centers):
0745Z - 940 miles
1945Z - 760 miles

Fiona is closing in on Earl fast. And the way Fiona's squalls are elongating to the NW indicates it may be well on its way to being absorbed by Earl.

I agree that the squalls are elongating to the NW but what concerns me is that she's maintaining a pretty good circulation and that circulation appears to be moving basically due west. Earl on the other hand looks like he's picked up some speed and moving more northward now, evidenced by how east of the forecast track he is. I would expect those squalls to the NW to be affected by Earl since he's a very powerful Cat 4 hurricane currently.

[Duke95]

How can you tell whether or not she has gained latitude with as elongated as she is becoming?

Looks to me like she is being sucked down a drain.

[AJC3]

It doesn't look to me that Fiona is gaining much latitude.

You've noticed that too, also if you go over to the Earl discussion it's pretty much obvious that he's moving more northward now and I really think he's picking up forward speed. I think by morning we're going to have some surprises with Fiona.

The last two VDM's for Fiona suggest otherwise. As mentioned earlier, Fiona's circulation is getting elongated NW-SE, and is also about to encounter some hostile northeasterly upper winds from Earl's well established outflow. I honestly don't foresee any surprises with Fiona (i.e being more robust or winding up significantly farther west than is currently being forecast), other than the potential to get absorbed by Earl a bit earlier than forecast...which wouldn't be much of a surprise.

[x-y-no]

Distance between Earl & Fiona (Centers):
0745Z - 940 miles
1945Z - 760 miles

Fiona is closing in on Earl fast. And the way Fiona's squalls are elongating to the NW indicates it may be well on its way to being absorbed by Earl.

Well, if that happens we should all give props to the GFS, which has been calling for that for days.

[TheBurn]

Yep... Fiona put some distance between her and 98: