ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[crownweather]

Thank you Gustywind for posting our discussions on here. Thought I'd let you all know that we just updated our Earl page with links/info for the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands including links to webcams, news media outlets and weather observations. Big thank you to cycloneeye for some of the links to webcams for the Virgin and Leeward Islands! Link to our Earl page: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=2972

[Gustywind]

Thank you Gustywind for posting our discussions on here. Thought I'd let you all know that we just updated our Earl page with links/info for the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands including links to webcams, news media outlets and weather observations. Big thank you to cycloneeye for some of the links to webcams for the Virgin and Leeward Islands! Link to our Earl page: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=2972

[cheezyWXguy]

Earl has that classic tropical storm look

Lol no he doesn't. Go take a look at the visible imagery. The center is exposed due to westerly shear. However, the shear is supposed to lessen by tomorrow so its not a big problem for the storm. Unfortunately, that IS a big problem for the islands.

That was the joke

Two lobes. Exposed center. A "classic tropical storm".

Oh, hahah its hard to read sarcasm over the internet. Yeah, I though you had taken a look at the satellite imagery a little earlier before the center became exposed and then posted that, because at that time the center being exposed like that was a very recent occurence.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree that the northern islands may be in danger of getting a hit, but the NHC seems pretty confident(like they were with Danielle) regarding the steering patterns that are going to pull it up. Usually if the NHC isn't confident they will mention different scenerios that could happen, but they aren't doing that with Earl. So it should still recurve without a problem, but it may still hit the northern islands before doing so....

[KWT]

One thing is for sure we will heave a wealth of information once all the recon starts tomorrow, an awful lot of planes flying into the system in the next few days.

Looks to be really flying at the moment, that LLC is racing away at 285 it seems at the moment.

[Evil Jeremy]

One thing is for sure we will heave a wealth of information once all the recon starts tomorrow, an awful lot of planes flying into the system in the next few days.

Looks to be really flying at the moment, that LLC is racing away at 285 it seems at the moment.

Were going to get a chunk of info today. I believe the Gulfstream is flying in to get the upper atmosphere data, correct?

[ColinDelia]

Oh, hahah its hard to read sarcasm over the internet. Yeah, I though you had taken a look at the satellite imagery a little earlier before the center became exposed and then posted that, because at that time the center being exposed like that was a very recent occurence.

Yeah msgboard humor is easily lost. Lol.

[ColinDelia]

[KWT]

I agree that the northern islands may be in danger of getting a hit, but the NHC seems pretty confident(like they were with Danielle) regarding the steering patterns that are going to pull it up. Usually if the NHC isn't confident they will mention different scenerios that could happen, but they aren't doing that with Earl. So it should still recurve without a problem, but it may still hit the northern islands before doing so....

Yeah there is only so far west it'll get before the pattern lifts it up and with no hint of an upper high building for Earl nothing to stop it lifting out NE once it gets to about 35N...I see little threat to the east coast though you never quite know do ya!

ps, one interesting thing is it seems to be moving quite quickly right now, maybe faster then progged, whether or not that makes a difference down the line remains to be seen!

[cycloneye]

The good news in terms of Earl tracking close to the NE Caribbean islands is, if it continues with the low center exposed, it will not become a hurricane on Sunday as the NHC intensity forecast has.

[KWT]

Probably only going to be a short term thing Cycloneye, maybe like what we saw with Danielle when it briefly lost its hurricane status, I suspect it'll blow some convection up at some point in the next 12hrs.

The bigger story is how its sped up yet further, looks to me to be moving faster then some of the models progged.

[Evil Jeremy]

Probably only going to be a short term thing Cycloneye, maybe like what we saw with Danielle when it briefly lost its hurricane status, I suspect it'll blow some convection up at some point in the next 12hrs.

The bigger story is how its sped up yet further, looks to me to be moving faster then some of the models progged.

Is a faster speed a good or bad thing though?

[AdamFirst]

Is a faster speed a good or bad thing though?

I assume it would be a good thing since it would likely find the weakness Danielle left behind and kick itself out.

Probably not the best news for future Fiona however.

[KWT]

It maybe bad or it maybe good...who knows it may even just be a brief thing as the low level flow speeds up a little bit.

I'd imagine once the system starts to get close to the weakness the convection will pop with the LLC as it slows down and that will probably help to strengthen the system again.

[MGC]

A faster forward speed means the steering flow is strong and the cyclone will likely remain on that heading in the short term. Usually when a TC slows then a change in heading is more likely. I would not be surprised if the track of Earl is shifted a bit more westward....trend is your friend....models have had hard time estimating the strength of the ridge out in the Atlantic. Once the Gulfstream data gets input into the models there will be a much better idea of where the hurricane will go. Good chance that when the shear lets up Earl will begin intensifying big time.....MGC

[Gustywind]

This time yellow alert have been required for Guadeloupe for a risk of strong showers/ tstorms rough seas strong winds. Whereas, given Meteo-France Guadeloupe if Earl is to affect the Northern Leewards, orange code could be required tonight.
For those who are interrested
http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene
Click on this link and choose "Bulletin de vigilance sur la Guadeloupe" or " Bulletin de vigilance sur les Iles du Nord" to read it
Each version are in french a way to improve your french

[KWT]

A faster forward speed means the steering flow is strong and the cyclone will likely remain on that heading in the short term. Usually when a TC slows then a change in heading is more likely. I would not be surprised if the track of Earl is shifted a bit more westward....trend is your friend....models have had hard time estimating the strength of the ridge out in the Atlantic. Once the Gulfstream data gets input into the models there will be a much better idea of where the hurricane will go. Good chance that when the shear lets up Earl will begin intensifying big time.....MGC

With all that being said looks like Earl is gaining some latitude right now, looks to be on a broadly 280 heading though I suspect it may bend back to near west soon enough again.

I think its not really shear, its just a brief speeding up of the low level flow, the convection for example doesn't look sheared per say, it just can't keep up with the low level flow, so speed shear I suppose.

[Macrocane]

Probably only going to be a short term thing Cycloneye, maybe like what we saw with Danielle when it briefly lost its hurricane status, I suspect it'll blow some convection up at some point in the next 12hrs.

The bigger story is how its sped up yet further, looks to me to be moving faster then some of the models progged.

An ever better example was Danielle when it was still a tropical storm and hadn't reached hurricane status yet and the center became exposed and I remember that a few hours later Danielle became teh most organized tropical system of the season since Alex.

[KWT]

Yeah then agaon Macrocane this one does seem to be having problems, reminds me a little of what Colin did when the low level flow was just too quick for the system, though I suspect it won't have the shear to deal with like Colin did from the TUTT.

[ColinDelia]

Maybe getting back under the convection? We'll see

Two hours ago


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