ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HouTXmetro]

pay close attention to around 79.2 W 17N for a distinct low level circ overnight..

After taking a good look at the visible sat pic I must agree.
Good observations djones65.

Agreed, circulation is coming together. The key is sustaining convection.

[shortwave]

pay close attention to around 79.2 W 17N for a distinct low level circ overnight..

bump... upper high center currently seems to be sitting just to sw of that location.

[HouTXmetro]

pay close attention to around 79.2 W 17N for a distinct low level circ overnight..

bump... upper high center currently seems to be sitting just to sw of that location.

Is that causing the shear we see streaming in from the West?

[lrak]

At least that little storm to the south of the swirl hasn't produced an outflow boundary yet.

[BigA]

pay close attention to around 79.2 W 17N for a distinct low level circ overnight..

bump... upper high center currently seems to be sitting just to sw of that location.

Is that causing the shear we see streaming in from the West?

I believe so. The upper level winds to the north of an upper high should blow from the west. As long as the upper high remains with the invest, shear won't be a big problem.

[shortwave]

pay close attention to around 79.2 W 17N for a distinct low level circ overnight..

bump... upper high center currently seems to be sitting just to sw of that location.

Is that causing the shear we see streaming in from the West?

currently just a bit, based soley off of satellite loops... dont have usual links on this comp for the upper level wind data..

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AND
JAMAICA EASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...HAITI...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM...IF NECESSARY...TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN

[KWT]

Does look like there is westerly shear blowing across the system, probably the reason why convection is blowing up to the east of the broad circulation.

[drezee]

Looking at the pattern, I don't see a way out...it is going to be tough to not get a strong TC out of this situation. Maybe the yucatan can slow it down. Large envelope of low pressure just waiting to bundle. I believe the LLC is forming off the W tip of Jam. Tomorrow at this time, it should be classified. Just my thoughts...

[lrak]

Now it looks like the clouds to the north are starting feed into the swirl.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Call me crazy but I see a circulation being enveloped in convection. It's like the Wave Energy and Convection is catching up the circulation.

[tolakram]

Last few daylight frames. View last 10. It appears to me convection is beginning to organize around that center, at least on the eastern side.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 211315.GIF

[cycloneye]

I agree about NHC staying on the 30% at 8 PM. If during the next few hours before the 2 AM TWO,it starts to look better,I can see them increasing to 40%.

[BigA]

Last few daylight frames. View last 10. It appears to me convection is beginning to organize around that center, at least on the eastern side.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 211315.GIF

Agreed. It doesn't look good, but it looks better than any other time today. We'll see what the DMAX convective increase, if any, brings.

It's also illuminating that the 8 PM TWO has the orange circle centered on this little spin.

[KWT]

Looking at the pattern, I don't see a way out...it is going to be tough to not get a strong TC out of this situation. Maybe the yucatan can slow it down. Large envelope of low pressure just waiting to bundle. I believe the LLC is forming off the W tip of Jam. Tomorrow at this time, it should be classified. Just my thoughts...

My main issue is the models have underestimated the shear, looking at the convection to the WSW of the broad turning shows the cloud deck being sheared quite quickly to the west, so I can only assume there is shear over 93L...its probably why it has n't got going yet and struggled to get stacked.

That being said convection does look like its trying to at least wrap into the E.side, maybe this could kick start the development of a smaller gyre in the larger one.

[Hurricane Andrew]

(Really off topic, but do you know the sympotoms of A Concussion? I just knocked the living daylight's out of myself when i was playing dodgeball. OK. I walked into a tree.)

Anyway, I think it has a chance, but it needs to get it's W side to ave more convection.

[tolakram]

More fun with youtube, here of the swirl. Up to 480 for best (still not good) quality.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgB-YqBm1qU[/youtube]

[jlauderdal]

Looking at the pattern, I don't see a way out...it is going to be tough to not get a strong TC out of this situation. Maybe the yucatan can slow it down. Large envelope of low pressure just waiting to bundle. I believe the LLC is forming off the W tip of Jam. Tomorrow at this time, it should be classified. Just my thoughts...

My main issue is the models have underestimated the shear, looking at the convection to the WSW of the broad turning shows the cloud deck being sheared quite quickly to the west, so I can only assume there is shear over 93L...its probably why it has n't got going yet and struggled to get stacked.

That being said convection does look like its trying to at least wrap into the E.side, maybe this could kick start the development of a smaller gyre in the larger one.

the other day the thinking was nothing before 75W now its going to be at least 80W, better get going soon or it will run out of real estate, tomorrow is a big day for this thing, if a real trend doesn't take shape by tomorrow night I think its iffy you ever see a cane out of this, remember climatology is against it big time.

[thetruesms]

Last few daylight frames. View last 10. It appears to me convection is beginning to organize around that center, at least on the eastern side.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 211315.GIF

I don't know if we're looking at the same thing, I hope so - but for all the pointing out of things lately, this is the first time I've seen something that really does look like it's trying to build itself a center. I wouldn't say I'm convinced yet, and it doesn't help that the last ASCAT pass missed (typical ), but maybe it really is trying to get its act together finally. Maybe. Nothing to do but keep watching

[KWT]

tolakram, that really serves to show the level of shear over the system right now actually, you can see that stronger convective mass starting to get dragged back SE by the shear as well...

No doubt its a low level circulation though...