ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

wilma cat 1 was a major problem for south florida and it wasnt handled well, things have changed hopefully but we haven't been hit since then, when you have a power outages in a major metro area you have big problems no matter how many people prepare

I really think South Florida as a whole underestimated Wilma and caught everybody off guard...the whole "oh the eye isnt come here, we're gonna be fine" rationale.

Sometimes you don't have enough forewarning...like with Katrina, the streets were filled on a Friday afternoon as an 80 MPH hurricane was blowing through.

[cycloneye]

Is it only me or any of you are having problems getting into the NHC site? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

[AdamFirst]

I'm having no problems with NHC

[HURAKAN]

Is it only me or any of you are having problems getting into the NHC site? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

I have no problems

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[artist]

from my local Hazardous Weather Outlook
issued at 1:40PM today-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-241100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
140 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010
...

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE MOVEMENT
TOWARDS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL.

[Florida1118]

NWS Tampa FD:
"MUCH UNCERTAINTY ARISES IN THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PUSH A TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE CARRIBEAN
NORTHWARD TOWARDS SW FL. SEVERAL VARIABLES INCLUDING THE
ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE MID LATITUDE LOW AND RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE
STATE WILL HELP DETERMINE THE SOLUTION OF THE LONG TERM. B/C ALL
THESE VARIABLES REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN..."

[mpic]

Houston is expected to dip into the mid 60's at night on Sunday. Wouldn't that keep Matthew away from here?

[HURAKAN]

latest

[cycloneye]

Is it only me or any of you are having problems getting into the NHC site? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

I have no problems

Is only me here then. Is the only site that I cant get in right now.

[Scorpion]

Hopefully it comes this way as a broad TS or weak Cat 1, we can use the rain.

[KatDaddy]

The Houston-Galveston area as well the rest of TX and LA will enjoy the front and its protection. Enough WGOM threats this season as well as enough rain. Matthew looks to be wrapping up nicely this evening.

[HURAKAN]

Pre-Matthew

[Aquawind]

Sure is wrapping up and large..

[AdamFirst]

NWS Melbourne AFD (from 2:30 this afternoon)

MON-THU...PREV DISCUSSION...A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID PART OF THE
COUNTRY IS FORECAST TO DROP TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
IN GENERAL THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MAINTAIN A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW...SO HAVE GONE WITH 40 PERCENT POPS MON-TUE. THE
FORECAST FOR WED-THU CONTINUES TO BE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z
RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DRIFT A TROPICAL SYSTEM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTO FLORIDA ON THU. I HAVE FOLLOWED THE
MODELS HANDLING OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR MORE THAN 10 DAYS AND
HAVE SEEN ALL KINDS OF SOLUTIONS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS
NO WAY TO HANG YOUR HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL OR SOLUTION WHEN THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS NOT EVEN FORMED YET. OFTEN THESE KINDS OF
SYSTEMS HANG OUT IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR AWHILE BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH. THEREFORE WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND KEEP POPS AT 40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THE MODELS GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THINGS.

[Vortex]

looks ready for take off tonight...

[StormClouds63]

Unless the front stalls or just falls apart (both very unlikely) western GOM looks in good shape, IMO. I don't think an Isidore (2002) scenario takes place this time ... northeast or even east/northeast track instead of due north once in GOM.

[Dave C]

that upper-low to the east is also helping to ventilate the system.

[kevin]

Not a good part of the basin for a storm to be moving slowly over. These Yucatan systems are the worst.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I agree with you there Kevin. Wilma being still on my mind...