ATL: FIONA - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

Here is 0z 120hrs....

[Wx_Warrior]

12z 144 hrs

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^

Somewhat stalled out it seems?

[shah8]

Yeah, same stall for a day or two...Just 70 miles or so over 2 days.

[Vortex]

thats the 00z...12z is weaker and faster with recurvature

[Duke95]

Are those supposed to be the 0z or 12z runs?

[gatorcane]

Looks like a trend with the Euro away from any kind of U.S. hit with this one. Two runs in a row now. Need just a couple of more...

For all we know it may not become anything signficant anyway with massive Earl taking up much of the Western Atlantic. Several models don't develop 97L much.

[Scorpion]

Yea no longer buying a hit. Euro swung and missed epically the past few days.

[Vortex]

now im beginning to doubt any threat from fiona..looks like it will shoot up between bermuda and the east coast with little fane fare...

[shah8]

I don't think this is a run really to accept. This is just the model saying I don't really know in that certain time frame. Either we'll see an authoritative recurve or the build westward run later on...

[rockyman]

On the 12z run, the system temporarily slows down and bends back to the west between Days 5 and 6, then takes off to the northeast. This run is consistent with the previous runs, in that it shows that the "hand off" will take place in about 144 hours...and, depending on the exact timing of the hand off and the strength of the respective players (Fiona, the ridge, the next trough), the system will either get shunted to the NE or back to the west.

[gatorcane]

Did you see the trough in that run of the 12Z ECMWF? Models are latching on to it.

I can't see it getting to the US with that trough (yet another trough).

[Wx_Warrior]

Here is 12z: 120 hrs

[Vortex]

one thing to note..euro really builds in that high next weekend....I don't think this is a sure thing yet....looking forward to the ensembles....

[Wx_Warrior]

12z 144 hrs

[Vortex]

Thats some high to the north labor day.....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... TNA168.gif

[Vortex]

Here's a better picture...With this pattern not going to miss at least the carolinas....




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... yNA192.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

192 hrs

[Scorpion]

Well thats interesting, I guess there still might be a chance here.