ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[plasticup]

I'm in agreement with the NHC track, keeping Fiona weaker and well east of the U.S. Though if it isn't killed/absorbed by Earl, it could reach hurricane strength if Earl moves far off to the north.

Where do you see it wandering after day 5? Will it keep recurving, or do a little dance in the Atlantic?

[TheBurn]

[jes]

Glad you're back and safe Cycloneye. Many have asked about you.

[KWT]

Fiona really doesn't look too bad at the moment, you can see the shear is close by and if it slows down it could strengthen as it comes into the NE Caribbean...I suspect Fiona travels west of the forecast though the NHC solution seems fine overall.

[TravelingFoodie]

Hi, This is my first post although I have been reading this forum for the past few days. So please forgive me if what I write sounds uneducated or amateurish. I am amazed at the knowledge of storms you all have.

I found this forum when I started doing research on the various hurricanes and storms in the Atlantic since I am supposed to be traveling to Bermuda from Sept 2 - Sept 7. I noticed today that the latest forecasts have Fiona traveling what looks to be pretty close to the west of Bermuda on Saturday and Sunday. Do you think that this is cause for concern? Should I still go on the trip as scheduled? I know from my short time reading this forum that forecasts change constantly so it is difficult to predict what will happen a few days out, but just want to be sure that I'm not traveling right towards what could become a hurricane.

Thank you!

[supercane]

Latest VDM not too impressive, although winds are probably strong enough to support minimal TS strength:
000
URNT12 KNHC 311736
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082010
A. 31/17:23:40Z
B. 16 deg 18 min N
056 deg 47 min W
C. 925 mb 745 m
D. 34 kt
E. 335 deg 43 nm
F. 091 deg 33 kt
G. 325 deg 78 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 22 C / 760 m
J. 23 C / 758 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0108A FIONA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 33 KT NW QUAD 16:55:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

[WmE]

That temperature profile is nothing to write home about either. Minimal TS at best.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 08, 2010083118, , BEST, 0, 163N, 568W, 35, 1006, TS

[HurrMark]

I think this one is doomed...it is moving too fast in comparison to Earl. Those models calling for Earl to have Fiona for lunch might be spot on...

[HURAKAN]

getting closer

[shah8]

I don't know...I think it's been mostly going west, but I suck at figuring out what the center of a cyclone is, if it's not obvious--I remember my sad performance with Bill, for example.

[Cyclone1]

Fiona looks doomed.

[Gustywind]

[xironman]

With Earl sucking dry air his weakening may be Fiona's life support

[chrisnnavarre]

Looking at visual satellite, the LLCC looks to me to be about: 16N 56W at the 1845z visual frame...to me folks this looks like it has a pretty good circulation and that it's traveling due west at a pretty good clip. She looks to pass way south of her 01000z forecast way point. I still see pretty good convection associated with what I think is that center, so I don't think we've heard the last from Fiona.

[plasticup]

Hi, This is my first post although I have been reading this forum for the past few days. So please forgive me if what I write sounds uneducated or amateurish. I am amazed at the knowledge of storms you all have.

I found this forum when I started doing research on the various hurricanes and storms in the Atlantic since I am supposed to be traveling to Bermuda from Sept 2 - Sept 7. I noticed today that the latest forecasts have Fiona traveling what looks to be pretty close to the west of Bermuda on Saturday and Sunday. Do you think that this is cause for concern? Should I still go on the trip as scheduled? I know from my short time reading this forum that forecasts change constantly so it is difficult to predict what will happen a few days out, but just want to be sure that I'm not traveling right towards what could become a hurricane.

Thank you!

Hi there! I actually grew up in Bermuda, and will be there this weekend too. I wouldn't worry about your trip. If Fiona impacts Bermuda it will only be briefly, and there is no country better equipped to handle it. Tropical Storms aren't a big deal in the developed world, so it'll be fine. You may end up playing cards indoors for an evening, but it's not like the drama you see on TV during a Category 3 hurricane. I was working in Bermuda last year during a tropical storm, and we didn't even go home early.

Obviously keep an eye on the forecasts. If the situation changes then you'll need to reevaluate the situation, but a tropical storm in Bermuda is no big deal.

[JtSmarts]

Could get close to a Cindy/Emily situation of 1999.

[CrazyC83]

Found a 42 kt SFMR, so maybe they will increase the intensity to 40 kt. But Fiona had better slow down or she is just going to become dinner for Earl.

[plasticup]

Found a 42 kt SFMR, so maybe they will increase the intensity to 40 kt. But Fiona had better slow down or she is just going to become dinner for Earl.

Obviously Earl's outflow will blow Fiona apart, but what effect could Fiona have on Earl? Could should shear it a little? Is there any possibility of positive interaction between storms?

[CrazyC83]

Found a 42 kt SFMR, so maybe they will increase the intensity to 40 kt. But Fiona had better slow down or she is just going to become dinner for Earl.

Obviously Earl's outflow will blow Fiona apart, but what effect could Fiona have on Earl? Could should shear it a little? Is there any possibility of positive interaction between storms?

I don't think Fiona will have any real impact on Earl given the enormous differences in size and intensity. As for Fiona, she could be seriously turned if she doesn't get blown apart or absorbed, most likely a hard northerly turn around Earl's circulation until the ridge shuts the door.