ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Uh oh

Oh shoot

[KWT]

Thats going to be tight, upper trough may just about come to the rescue though as its moving at a decent clip towards the east...lets see!

[gatorcane]

Wow is NYC in the target zone with Danielle here? Interesting GFS run here I must say....

Where is the next trough?

[CrazyC83]

Triple threat there - Danielle, Earl and....Gaston? (since Fiona seems to be the Gulf low many are talking about)

[MWatkins]

That's a big 594DM ridge Danielle is bumping into from say 144 hours to 168. This could be the making of a very anxious week for the NE.

Not to dissimilar from the solution the 0Z GFS had over the weekend.

MW

[gatorcane]

Landfall in Boston it looks like as a significant system, doesn't miss NYC by much at all:

[Aric Dunn]

landfall cap cod...

[Ivanhater]

Well Well....

[KWT]

Indeed Mike that solution looks real interesting, increasing numbers of the GFS ensembles have been suggesting its possible.

Still outside shot as it does require perfect timings of everything esp at the latitude Danielle does turn at but who knows!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

landfall cap cod...

Indeed, not good...

[Aric Dunn]

now what makes things worse.. is if she does not turn NNW prior to the ridge building in.. that would lead to a farther shift west,

[Brent]

[CrazyC83]

That would be the worst hurricane for the Northeast in decades if that happened...a Cape Cod landfall fortunately keeps the populated areas on the weaker side, which is significantly weaker at that latitude when a storm is moving fast.

[hurricaneCW]

This has to be a fluke run right? Earl would eventually get absorbed but look at what would be Fiona. That would is moving to the west. What an incredible run though, just wow.

[ColinDelia]

Long Island Express:
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/

[MWatkins]

I would wait for the 0Z GFS (with new data) to proclaim the start of a trend, but it looks like there is going to be at least some time for the environment to change after the trough lifts out.

This is very similar to the setup that we were seeing late last week in the extended, now it's just happening later in time.

This pattern, if it develops anywhere close to what the GFS is suggesting, would leave the east coast open for business as the peak of the season approaches.

MW

[hurricaneCW]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

Maybe something like this but further east.

[KWT]

I'd be a little surprised if a system tracks like what the GFS suggests but there have been an increasing number of ensembles trying to bring back that westwards bend so its not totally out of question...still to get it that far west would be rather unusual at that latitude, though not unheard of.

Ah well at least its bolstered interest again!

[Aric Dunn]

I would wait for the 0Z GFS (with new data) to proclaim the start of a trend, but it looks like there is going to be at least some time for the environment to change after the trough lifts out.

This is very similar to the setup that we were seeing late last week in the extended, now it's just happening later in time.

This pattern, if it develops anywhere close to what the GFS is suggesting, would leave the east coast open for business as the peak of the season approaches.

MW

yeah still plenty of unknowns too make a all clear for the east coast..

[Riptide]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cc/1903_Atlantic_hurricane_4_track.png

Maybe something like this but further east.

Ah, yes. This is the Vagabond hurricane from 1903. I used this as my analog track before Danielle became a named system but I was only joking.