ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks as though it may be Tuesday or Wednesday before he really ramps up.


FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...WESTERLY 300 MB WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER AND INDUCE SOME
SHEAR ON TOMAS...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
USUALLY WITH WESTERLY SHEAR COMES DRY AIR MID-LEVEL AIR...AND THIS
INHIBITING FACTOR WAS CLEARLY INDICATED IN UPPER-AIR DATA WEST OF
65W LONGITUDE THIS MORNING. BY 72 HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS TOMAS SLOWS DOWN...AND A INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
LAST TWO GFDL MODEL RUNS...WHICH MAKES A TOMAS A MAJOR HURRICANE
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.

[RL3AO]

Plus storm surge isn't the threat to Haiti. Its the rain and wind.

[expat2carib]

Anybody has a time frame when this will get better for St.Lucia. It's getting scary right now and I'm looking forward for it to be over.

[Gustywind]

[Aquawind]

Anybody has a time frame when this will get better for St.Lucia. It's getting scary right now and I'm looking forward for it to be over.

It is looking like it could be a couple hours yet..from the radar pics I have posted. Southern part of the island not looking good for awhile as they will feel the back side and wind change more. Be patient and stay safe..

[plasticup]

How much storm surge is expected from this.

What about when if this were to hit haiti as a cat 4.

The Caribbean islands are not very prone to storm surge. Storm surge is very much a function of coastal bathymetry, or the the depth of water just offshore. Since most of these islands are just peaks of tall underwater mountains, the water is very deep just offshore. And storm surge is not really a function of Saffir-Simpson category, it's a function of wind field size. A tiny area of Cat 4 or Cat 5 winds would make little difference in surge. It's all about the size of the wind field, not peak intensity.

That said, there are actually no SLOSH basins for the Caribbean with the exception of Puerto Rico. So we cannot run SLOSH to estimate storm surge. Given the very deep water just offshore most islands, the surge would be considerably less than you might expect, perhaps only 3-5 feet for a large Cat 4. But that's just a guess, as I have no way to calculate it manually using the Shore Protection Manual method without using nautical charts to take into account near-shore water depth for each small section of the coast.

Also relevant are the islands' topographies. An 8 foot surge in North Carolina could put the barrier islands entirely underwater, but on the more mountainous islands of the Caribbean the same surge wouldn't penetrate very far.

[cycloneye]

The next mission will depart at 12:30 AM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 31/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0321A CYCLONE
C. 31/0430Z
D. 13.2N 64.0W
E. 31/0530Z TO 31/0930Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[Sanibel]

Looks like a chance for a high intensity hurricane right into Guantanamo from the south.

[SouthDadeFish]

Oops I just realized the VDM has already been posted. Nevermind. Slow strengthening seems likely today as the structure comes together. Doesn't look all that impressive at the moment.

[CourierPR]

Needs to be watched very closely even though the risk to the US is pretty close to 0...

Climo agrees with you. Since 1851, there is not a single storm on record that was first designated a TC east of 60W after 10/9 that went on to make landfall in the contiguous 48 of the U.S. The latest developer occurred in 1887 (#13) on 10/9. Since Tomas was designated on 10/29, it would be 20 days later than the latest on record that formed east of 60W if it were to somehow hit the lower 48. If I were in FL, I wouldn't be worried/hopeful (depending on one's perspective).

Larry, if you go strictly by climatology, Tomas shouldn't even exist. Climatology is only one tool in forecasting just like a standardized test is only one measure of a student's academic performance.

[Gustywind]

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

- 1:30 pm in St. Lucia...
By "Christopher Kessell" <kessellc at candw.lc>
Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 13:43:02 -0400

Well, talk about being caught with our proverbial pants down! Full on Panic mode this morning as everyone realized that there was a Storm and most likely a hurricane making a bee line towards us!!



I'm in the North at Cap Estate and unlike Dean a couple of years ago when we were the closest on the island to that hurricane, we are being spared a bit by being now the furthest from the storm as it tracks South of the island.



I had to drive down to Castries to help get a generator running at a family owned business and of course there isn't enough diesel to last the night... Can only hope that they restore power later tonight if the conditions calm down. All businesses including gas stations are closed as of mid morning at the latest.



The main highway between Castries and Rodney Bay was still passable at 1:30 and as the rain has not been too torrential, hopefully the drains and rivers will manage with the water and not flood the Choc and Bois d'orange sections of the highway where flooding has closed the road in the past.



Lots of smaller trees and endless branches are down along all of the roads, there was a large coconut tree across the highway close to the coast which was causing cars to have to swerve around into oncoming traffic to avoid it. I shot some video of my drive up and will try and post it to Youtube later.



Winds have not been too bad from Castries North, maybe steady 35 at times with gusts to 50 mph I would estimate. If it stays like that we should be able to ride it out quite easily.



I spoke to the boatyard manager at the IGY Marina and he told me that things in the yard were fine with no threat to any of the boats at that time.



I will report back later as the afternoon progresses...



All the best,



Chris Kessell

[Gustywind]

[Ivanhater]

Looks like a strengthening phase is under way.

Burst over the center and popcorn convection on the eastern eye wall. Also eye has become much better defined on radar.

[cycloneye]

What I dont like at all sitting here in San Juan is the slowdown that is already occuring.It may mean the slowdown may cause it to turn earlier than forecast,of course the timing is everything between the big trough that will exit the U.S and where will Tomas be located.

[chrisjslucia]

Can anyone advise on likely changes in wind direction - from where next and when? Still coming at us from the North / North East and I'd guessed this would have changed by now.

[abajan]

Can anyone advise on likely changes in wind direction - from where next and when? Still coming at us from the North / North East and I'd guessed this would have changed by now.

It will shift to the SE within the next couple of hours, and when it does, I expect the wind to be really strong (especially in the south of the island by Hewanorra Airport)! So, be prepared.

The preceding response is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricaneCW]

Tomas looks so much better on radar then on IR. Nice burst near the center though, very unfortunate for the islands.

[Gustywind]

[plasticup]

Tomas looks so much better on radar then on IR. Nice burst near the center though, very unfortunate for the islands.

I think the islands got lucky. Tomas is only going to get worse, and if he had developed a hundred miles earlier they would really have been in trouble. This is going to be a monster storm, and when all is said and done they might see themselves as fortunate at having experienced him at "only" Category 1 strength.

Although I suppose you could say that if he has developed a hundred miles later things would have been even better...

[TheBurn]