ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS THAT RICHARD HAS REFORMED TO THE EAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cyclonic chronic]

looks like more banding than anyother time over the last few days. also a big convective blow up over the LLC, so maybe richard is starting to stack vertically. he is very close to the coast so land interaction might be the biggest problem. i remember a discussion on here about struggling t.s. close to land weakening overnight eventhough thats d-max. the reason being is inflow from land at night is much more stable and drier. maybe daytime heating will give it the moisture kick it needs.

wow, that so did not come out on the screen like i had it in my head. lol

[cycloneye]

Decoded first Vortex Message.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 12:16Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 11:46:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°47'N 83°00'W (15.7833N 83.W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 266 miles (428 km) to the SSW (204°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 44° at 37kts (From the NE at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 369m (1,211ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 366m (1,201ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) in the west quadrant at 11:31:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) in the east quadrant at 11:49:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[HURAKAN]

130300 1556N 08302W 9777 00244 //// +232 //// 127045 046 040 010 05
130330 1555N 08303W 9775 00241 //// +230 //// 131044 046 042 010 01
130400 1555N 08305W 9776 00234 //// +231 //// 142046 048 042 003 05
130430 1554N 08306W 9764 00240 //// +240 //// 153048 048 042 002 01
130500 1553N 08308W 9764 00235 //// +235 //// 153048 049 040 004 05
130530 1553N 08309W 9761 00239 //// +228 //// 159034 042 040 001 01

49 knots FL, 42 knots SFML

[cycloneye]

Second decoded VDM has a stronger Richard with pressure dropping to 1000 mbs.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 13:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 13:07:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°53'N 83°15'W (15.8833N 83.25W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 267 miles (429 km) to the SSW (207°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 152° at 49kts (From the SSE at ~ 56.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the E (84°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 309m (1,014ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 329m (1,079ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph) in the east quadrant at 13:05:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 29kts (~ 33.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 13:20:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[dwsqos2]

134800 1600N 08324W 9767 00250 //// +219 //// 077064 066 054 002 05
134830 1601N 08325W 9767 00256 //// +217 //// 078067 069 052 001 05
134900 1603N 08325W 9761 00268 //// +214 //// 078068 070 050 004 05
134930 1604N 08326W 9766 00269 //// +211 //// 079068 072 050 003 05

72 knots flight-level. Richard is a much, much healthier system this morning. The center is at a still rather low latitude.

[wxman57]

NHC going with at least 50kts on the next advisory. Model guidance just came out with 50 kts at 00hr. Could be a hurricane by late this afternoon at this pace.

[cycloneye]

That is correct 57.

Best Track updated to 50kts.

AL, 19, 2010102312, , BEST, 0, 158N, 831W, 50, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Battlebrick]

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 72KT N QUAD AT 13:49:30

[cycloneye]

Decoded last VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 14:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 19L in 2010
Storm Name: Richard (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 13:43:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°49'N 83°21'W (15.8167N 83.35W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 274 miles (440 km) to the SSW (208°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the ENE (73°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 107° at 54kts (From the ESE at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the ENE (74°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 312m (1,024ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 312m (1,024ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 72KT N QUAD AT 13:49:30

[SouthDadeFish]

I doubt they only go with 50 knots when they found 72 knot flight level winds.... It's odd that the pressure went up 2mb in the last VDM.

[cycloneye]

Here are the three fixes this mission that has ended did.

[wxman57]

Looks like they bumped the initial intensity to 55kts (65 mph)

[cycloneye]

...RICHARD RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS
COAST...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[SouthDadeFish]

Hopefully the "rapidly strengthens" term brings a little more activity here

[Sanibel]

Richard could gain in development from running under the ridge. I think we are trading explosive development with dry air weakening so category 1 is reasonable, however these things are tricky and if Richard finds a sweet spot in conditions it could burst in intensity.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[SouthDadeFish]

Richard won't intensify too rapidly without forming an eyewall first.

[SouthDadeFish]

Richard does look much more compact than yesterday, with better banding. Still seems to be missing convection on the NW side.

[cycloneye]