ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[plasticup]

The 06 run of GFDL shows a Category 4 storm in two days. Crazyface.

Nothing can be counted out though...I've seen numerous storms go from a Cat 1 to a Cat 4 in much less than 24 hours...

Under ideal conditions, sure. But I think Cat 4 within 48 hours too much of a stretch. Besides, the 06 GFDL initialized before the recent collapse, so it is starting with a much stronger storm. In that time frame, a Cat 3 would be pretty surprising.

[ronjon]

Interesting discussion from HPC this morning - helps explain why some of the GFS ensemble members bring Danielle toward NC.

SOUTHEAST/EAST COAST...
A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF A
POSSIBLE UPPER LOW ROUNDING THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE EASTERN
RIDGE BY NEXT TUESDAY... WITH THE GFS STRONGEST JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND ECMWF RUNS STRONGEST OVER/NEAR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GEFS MEAN REPRESENTS BOTH AREAS TO SOME
DEGREE WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN IS NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT EITHER
AREA... SUPPORTING A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW. A SMALL
PERCENTAGE OF THE 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS USE THIS UPPER
LOW TO SWING HURRICANE DANIELLE TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS IN 7-10 DAYS. EVERY
COUPLE YEARS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE /OR THE DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN
GLOBAL MODEL/ TRIES TO ANOMALOUSLY TURN/STAIR-STEP A RECURVING
SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BELIEVE
DANIELLE IS TOO FAR GONE INTO THE RECURVATURE PROCESS AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND THAT THE UPPER LOW WHICH FORMS
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM DANIELLE TO TURN
THE STORM BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. DANIELLE...AMONG OTHER
SYSTEMS...WILL BE COORDINATED WITH NHC AT 16Z TODAY.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

SHIP goes down to tropical storm but then goes up again to hurricane.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 241837
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1837 UTC TUE AUG 24 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100824 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100824  1800   100825  0600   100825  1800   100826  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  47.5W   18.4N  50.5W   19.4N  53.2W   20.2N  55.2W
BAMD    17.1N  47.5W   18.2N  49.6W   19.6N  51.6W   21.0N  53.4W
BAMM    17.1N  47.5W   18.2N  50.2W   19.3N  52.4W   20.3N  53.9W
LBAR    17.1N  47.5W   18.4N  50.2W   19.8N  53.2W   21.1N  56.1W
SHIP        65KTS          60KTS          61KTS          61KTS
DSHP        65KTS          60KTS          61KTS          61KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100826  1800   100827  1800   100828  1800   100829  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.9N  56.5W   24.0N  57.6W   29.6N  60.1W   32.4N  63.1W
BAMD    22.5N  55.2W   25.5N  59.0W   28.4N  62.2W   32.1N  63.0W
BAMM    21.6N  55.2W   25.2N  57.8W   29.5N  61.2W   32.7N  62.6W
LBAR    22.6N  58.6W   26.0N  62.9W   29.7N  63.6W   33.4N  61.7W
SHIP        64KTS          73KTS          87KTS          87KTS
DSHP        64KTS          73KTS          87KTS          87KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.1N LONCUR =  47.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  15.7N LONM12 =  44.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  15.2N LONM24 =  40.7W
WNDCUR =   65KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   85KT
CENPRS =  990MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =   90NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW =  90NM
 


[ronjon]

12z NOGAPS has major hurricane Danielle running over Bermuda heading for NYC - good thing its one of the poorest models - although I do see a westward trend in todays guidance - that cutoff low migrating down the SE US coast may throw a monkey wench into the 5-7 day forecast.

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml

[plasticup]

12z NOGAPS has major hurricane Danielle running over Bermuda heading for NYC

Even with the westward bend, it still has a big high over the east coast at the end of the forecast period. Danielle wouldn't plow into that.

[ronjon]

12z NOGAPS has major hurricane Danielle running over Bermuda heading for NYC

Even with the westward bend, it still has a big high over the east coast at the end of the forecast period. Danielle wouldn't plow into that.

yeah, I was being a little sarcastic but it doesn't translate well in writing. The biggest thing is not this particular model run but a general westward shift of the models today, putting Bermuda at risk again.

[KWT]

Westward shift probably means Bermuda will have a possible hurricane nearby in 3-4 days time.

Also this storm may not be gone all that quickly because if it takes a hard enough right turn it'll scoot along say 38-42N which is certainly still supportive of a 1/2 hurricane in most cases.

[KWT]

18z GFS looks mighty close to Bermuda to be honest on this run, too close for comfort I'd imagine!

[Aric Dunn]

at 126 hours.. the 18Z gfs is about 200 miles SW of the 12z run.. basically over top bermuda..

[KWT]

Yeah probably would be enough to at least justify a TS warning if that run actually came off, just to the east of Bermuda.

[KWT]

Bends back NW between 132-144hrs on this run...

[Aric Dunn]

pretty crazy west turn on the run..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Very interesting indeed, bold mine.

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF UNEXPECTED WESTERLY SHEAR...DANIELLE HAS
UNRAVELED DURING THE DAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS OCCASIONALLY
BEEN EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION...AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED ACCORDINGLY.
FINAL-T AND CI ESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE NOW NEAR
T3.5/4.5 AND SUPPORT DOWNGRADING DANIELLE TO A 60-KT TROPICAL
STORM. WITHOUT SUFFICIENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN THE CYCLONE
ENVIRONMENT...OPERATIONALLY WE CAN NOT SPECULATE WITH CERTAINTY WHY
DANIELLE WEAKENED TODAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANIELLE RE-INTENSIFYING INTO A
HURRICANE SOON...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS DANIELLE
BECOMING AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...INDICATES GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE STRONGLY
AFFECTED BY PERSISTENCE...BUT IT REMAINS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL
AT THIS TIME.

DANIELLE IS STILL MOVING QUICKLY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/16.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW
DOWN SOON AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...AND THE DAY 5
OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITION ENDS UP BEING 2 DEGREES FARTHER WEST
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS NEW FORECAST IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...AND IT LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHARPER-TURNING ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.5N 48.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 49.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 20.2N 51.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 53.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 23.7N 55.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 58.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 29.5N 61.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 33.0N 61.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NNNN


Source:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/242040.shtml

[Brent]

[lester]

too close for comfort!

[KWT]

Still going NW between 144-156hrs....must be one of the runs from the ensembles...first time I've seen the operational run pick up that solution and go with it though!

[Aric Dunn]

looks more of a wnw turn ...

[CrazyC83]

Almost starting to remind me of 1998's Danielle...

[Ivanhater]

Uh oh

[Brent]

It's going to hit!!!!!!!!