ATL: GASTON - Models

[Vortex]

wow, that is some run...

[Dean4Storms]

Not liking that solution one bit, thankfully we know it will change in the days to come!

[caneseddy]

240 hours Strong Hurricane hitting Miami

4 days before the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926

[Recurve]

Oh crap.
Thanks for the descriptive summary Caneseddy. Haven't had a chance to look at models yet.
Anybody want to venture a guess on how accurate an Atlantic high forecast is this far out?
I guess We'll be praying for another trough.

[Vortex]

It's that time of year here...the trend is west so I think in the next few runs were going to tighten things up a bit more and have a better idea once passing the islands where gaston might go..

[caneseddy]

:uarrow: It's that time of year here...the trend is west so I think in the next few runs were going to tighten things up a bit more and have a better idea once passing the islands where gaston might go..

That's 3 models today showing a storm in the Florida Straits (GFS, Canadian and the Nogaps which has it off of eastern Cuba)

The trend has been west and no recurve before the islands

[South Texas Storms]

a recurve is looking a lot less likely now compared to 24 hours ago...

[ConvergenceZone]

a recurve is looking a lot less likely now compared to 24 hours ago...

Perhaps the reason why is because this is taking quite a bit longer to get going than intially forecasted. If this wouldn't have weakened to a wave and kept on developing, it may have been much more likely to recurve. Perhaps the models are latching onto its current weakened state....

Now we move into "watch" mode of Gaston. It's going to be very interesting to watch and see if it gets its act together the next 2 or 3 days....

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't know why anyone looks at models before a storm forms. They're useless and they flip flop back and forth. When and if it is renamed Gaston then I will watch trends on models.

[Macrocane]

You have to take into account that indeed there is a well defined LLC and that makes the models a little more reliable than if it was just a blob of convection.

[ConvergenceZone]

has anyone looked at the Map with all of the storms that WXMN posted this morning on the Discussion thread ? It looks like out of the tons of storms that have formed where Gaston is , only one just barely grazed the Carib and into the gulf...

Thus, the odds seem to be stacked high against it not recurving based upon his analysis. I guess the fact that 1 storm made it through, still gives Gaston a slim chance of not recurving...

I thought I would post this, because I had no idea that only 1 storm over that period of time didn't recurve....I learn something new here everyday..

[lonelymike]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Lol, Pensacola on September 16th (the day Ivan hit)
For entertainment purposes only. I'll clean Rocks house if this verifies.

[SFLcane]

That run is insane!

[Stormcenter]

AMEN.

I don't know why anyone looks at models before a storm forms. They're useless and they flip flop back and forth. When and if it is renamed Gaston then I will watch trends on models.

[ColinDelia]

I'm not taking sides but just wanted to point out that all those were named storms at the time. What would the "climatological" map look like it if we were looking at storms that weren't even officially TDs yet? I don't know the answer as far as systems with surface lows though for sure there have been thousands of tropical waves.

[ColinDelia]

12z GFS. This initializes in the correct place this time.

AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 000, 162N, 456W, 23, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 006, 166N, 466W, 24, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 012, 168N, 476W, 26, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 018, 170N, 490W, 28, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 024, 170N, 500W, 28, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 030, 176N, 514W, 27, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 036, 176N, 527W, 28, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 042, 177N, 541W, 31, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 048, 179N, 556W, 31, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 054, 180N, 571W, 30, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 060, 180N, 589W, 32, 1011, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 066, 179N, 601W, 37, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0074, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 072, 181N, 619W, 36, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0081, 0000, 0000, 0059, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 078, 188N, 631W, 35, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0066, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 084, 188N, 643W, 37, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0062, 0000, 0000, 0058, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 090, 189N, 659W, 46, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0078, 0000, 0000, 0071, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 096, 189N, 669W, 52, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0077, 0000, 0000, 0068, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 102, 190N, 680W, 49, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0084, 0000, 0000, 0070, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 108, 191N, 686W, 50, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0087, 0058, 0000, 0077, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 114, 190N, 690W, 50, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0081, 0060, 0000, 0081, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 120, 196N, 696W, 49, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0069, 0000, 0000, 0052, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 126, 199N, 701W, 39, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0070, 0000, 0000, 0057, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 132, 199N, 704W, 39, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0058, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 138, 199N, 710W, 35, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0065, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 144, 200N, 711W, 34, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0060, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 150, 202N, 716W, 35, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0067, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 156, 206N, 720W, 35, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0067, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 162, 207N, 724W, 30, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 168, 210N, 730W, 34, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 174, 218N, 734W, 38, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0078, 0000, 0000, 0080, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV
AL,09L, 2010090412, 03, GFSO, 180, 221N, 741W, 40, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0107, 0061, 0000, 0085, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, TCV

[ROCK]

has anyone looked at the Map with all of the storms that WXMN posted this morning on the Discussion thread ? It looks like out of the tons of storms that have formed where Gaston is , only one just barely grazed the Carib and into the gulf...

Thus, the odds seem to be stacked high against it not recurving based upon his analysis. I guess the fact that 1 storm made it through, still gives Gaston a slim chance of not recurving...

I thought I would post this, because I had no idea that only 1 storm over that period of time didn't recurve....I learn something new here everyday..

Thats like saying one place is overdue for a hurricane. There is no such thing as over due. Just as these maps, though fun to look at, have nothing to do with current synopics. If we are to rely on that map we should all sound the all clear and follow the climo model....

[ROCK]

I'm not taking sides but just wanted to point out that all those were named storms at the time. What would the "climatological" map look like it if we were looking at storms that weren't even officially TDs yet? I don't know the answer as far as systems with surface lows though for sure there have been thousands of tropical waves.

Great point Colin....Gas is just a low level circulation attm. Doesnt qualify as develop IMO.....plus the next 48hrs Gaston is expect to track south of west...whole different set of tracks if you lower his lat by a few degrees...

[Dean4Storms]

AMEN.

I don't know why anyone looks at models before a storm forms. They're useless and they flip flop back and forth. When and if it is renamed Gaston then I will watch trends on models.

You can get an idea with the trends in the rest of the atmosphere though. Even this far out if the models keep depicting lots of strong ridging and weak troughs the likely scenario is a westward track.

[Migle]

:uarrow: It's that time of year here...the trend is west so I think in the next few runs were going to tighten things up a bit more and have a better idea once passing the islands where gaston might go..

That's 3 models today showing a storm in the Florida Straits (GFS, Canadian and the Nogaps which has it off of eastern Cuba)

The trend has been west and no recurve before the islands

I agree that theres a west trend, but those three models aren't the best and really none of them can be to good right now without a center to go off of.