ATL: GASTON - Models

[perk]

Strength will be vital to the models, most are trending weaker and thus as you can see there is not even a hint of recurve in the models right now...

The worst case is something like the CMC which stays weak, strengthens a little and lifts out BUT not enough and the system gets far enough west just to the north of the islands to head westwards again towards the Gulf.

The slight WSW bend is obvious on most of the models now.

What a flip in the models, with the GFS,EURO,and the CMC forecasting a weaker system the upcoming week may be interesting.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS 90 hours



96 hours

[Ivanhater]

102 hours

[Ivanhater]

108

[caneseddy]

Summary of12z GFS out to 300 hours

60 hours has a weak Gaston further north, following a similar track to Earl and Fiona heading towards the NE islands (not towards the Caribbean like it was showing earlier)
66 hours intensifying while approaching the NE islands
72 hours due east of Puerto Rico (similar to Georges approach)
78 hours over the Virgin Islands heading WNW but still weak
At 84 hours just east of Vieques and Culebra (similar to Georges path so far)
At 90 hours landfall on the eastern to NE tip of Puerto Rico with another storm around 10 degrees just south of the Cape Verde
At 96 hours looks to be emerging around the NW tip of Puerto Rico (around Aguadilla)
At 102 hours intensifying right between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on the north side
At 108 hours scraping the north coast of Hispaniola as a decent looking hurricane
At 114 hours still scraping the north coast of Hispaniola; also shows a hurricane around 14 north south of Cape Verde
At 120 hours still scraping the north coast of Hispaniola moving WNW
At 126 hours still scraping the north coast of Hispaniola
At 132 hours still scraping north coast of Hispaniola
At 138 hours still paralleling the north coast of Hispaniola
At 144 hours, it still seems to love the north coast of Hispaniola
At 150 hours seems to be lifting out a little on the north coast of Haiti
At 156 hours, approaching the extreme Southern Bahamas (Turks and Caicos); high pressure still dominating
At 162 hours still in the southern Bahamas
At 168 hours still over the southern Bahamas
At 174 hours making its move WNW in the general direction of the Straits
At 180 hours, in the SE Bahamas around Acklins Island
At 192 hours intensifying over the Exumas moving WNW towards S Florida
At 204 hours over Andros Island heading towards South Florida
At 216 hours due east of Miami at 25 north
At 228 hours Bahama bomber about 200 miles east of Miami
At 240 hours landfall in South Florida as a major hurricane
At 252 hours exiting Florida into the Gulf around Naples
At 264 hours moving towards the Northern Gulf (watch out Ivan)
At 276 hours still moving towards Northern Gulf
At 288 hours intensifying hurricane making landfall around Pensacola/Mobile
At 300 hours landfall in Pensacola with a moster hurricane at 25 north of Puerto Rico

[caneseddy]

108

Looks like a Georges path from 1998; seems the GFS no longer agrees with Caribbean solution

[Ivanhater]

I was thinking the same thing canes , almost a carbon copy of George so far.

[caneseddy]

I was thinking the same thing canes , almost a carbon copy of George so far.

I'm thinking this is going to recurve because the GFS has been doing that on all its runs but that high to the north is strong

Edit: out to 180 hours, the high pressure is still dominating and there is a huge hurricane approaching the Windwards at 15 north

[Ivanhater]

192 hour Southern Bahamas heading to Florida straits similar to Canadian

[caneseddy]

192 hour Southern Bahamas heading to Florida straits similar to Canadian

Ivan,

That high pressure is not budging is it?

[Ivanhater]

Not at all canes

[South Texas Storms]

GOM bound on this run? with 2 storms behind it.

[Ivanhater]

240 hours Strong Hurricane hitting Miami

[Ivanhater]

In the Gulf

[South Texas Storms]

looks like a louisiana landfall this run?

[Ivanhater]

Lol, Pensacola on September 16th (the day Ivan hit)

[South Texas Storms]

haha poor ivan...hope that doesnt happen buddy. good thing its still 288 hours away.

[Ivanhater]

haha poor ivan...hope that doesnt happen buddy. good thing its still 288 hours away.

Haaa entertaining run for, but another Gulf run

[caneseddy]

The GFS is back to its first run of Gaston when it had a major hurricane hitting extreme Southern Florida and then into the Gulf

So now we have the Canadian and GFS with a hurricane in the Bahams area SE of Florida with a high pressure dominating to the north

It seems the storm keeps moving WNW like Georges but then it gets to South Florida's latitude and makes a turn west hitting Miami like Andrew (which means the high is dominating and not budging)

[South Texas Storms]

yeah i think the important thing to take from this run is that it makes it into the gulf...not the landfall this far out in advance.