ATL: FIONA - Models

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane: Yeah gfs loses it. The euro is clearly the outlier here. I really don't think 97l is a threat to the lower 48 as some think. Sorry I have to go with the gfs here. Earl will become so large 97l won't have much of a chance. Also Earl does not look to be a threat to the lower 48.

So let me make sure I have this straight - you're going with the GFS for 97L but you're not going for it when it comes to Earl which pretty much meets the Outer Banks on Friday, September 3rd (102 hours). Is it that you're confident in the GFS long term but you think it's out to lunch with Earl?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_102l.gif

Agree with you on all points.

I think the gfs has the Synoptics right on 97l but is too far left with Earl. A brush with the outer banks is possible but as I said previously do think the hurricane-force winds stay offshore.

[Steve]

haha. I wasn't trying to be a smart ***. I just was wondering where he was going with that. Looking back, it appears Gatorcane edited his post. Maybe he was just early with his call to embrace the GFS, but then he realized what he said was inconsistent with what the model eventually showed prompting him to get that comment off of the forum because it didn't jibe with the output or whatever. I was just asking where he was going with the synopsis.

edit - I hear you. I don't know one way or the other, but I'm waiting for the GEM (operational and ensembles) and European to come out to see if they are going to be persistent or slide toward what many of the other models are hinting at.

[ROCK]

Climo? we are still in August....climo has nothing to do with it...

The behavior of past storms do provide some insight into the likelihood of future storms on comparable dates and in comparable areas. This is why we use climatology. Yes, individual storms may be highly unclimatological, but there is some value in observing the past and noting the trends of past storms. Being in August has nothing to do with the climo he's talking about, if I'm reading his post correctly. I bet he's talking about the climatological probability of a storm that's in 97L's current location at this point in the year actually hitting the U.S. Again, climo is not necessarily a good predictor for individual events/storms, but, assuming the large-scale pattern is not highly unclimatological, there is value in using climo probabilities.

check out the verification scores. the euro is superior. the gfs is out to lunch

I haven't followed recent model verification this year, but are the verification stats for the ECMWF really THAT different from those of the GFS? We have a pretty small sample size thus far this year (we're only on storm E, after all). Do you have a link to this year's verification stats?

I guess I dont understand the logic of using CLIMO to determine track when every storm and upper air environment is different. A lot of variables out there. So are we to use climo to suggest lets say IKE? that was anomaly....so CLIMO was useless in that case....

[fci]

Deja vu.
Didn't you have this same debate about climatology and its use last night?

[Wx_Warrior]

0z CMC sends out to sea.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO 72H

[Wx_Warrior]

96H

[Vortex]

wx,

I think you have last nights image...AT h 72 has a strengthening fiona right over the northern leewards.




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP072.gif

[Vortex]

nevermind updated

[Wx_Warrior]

Maybe...took it as it updated....i'll keep checking.

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

144 hrs

[Vortex]

getting caught underneath the ridge....looks to be heading towards fl once again....

[Wx_Warrior]

168Hrs

[Vortex]

The point to be taken is there seems to be a good chance of a strengthening hurricane near the bahamas next weekend headed towards the state....

[Scorpion]

Really taking forever to get those plots in..

[Wx_Warrior]

192H

[Scorpion]

Nevermind.... way east shift. No landfall.

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]