ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Gustywind]

[wxman57]

For those of you in Florida somewhat concerned about Tomas, Tomas is NOT going to be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico or the U.S. There will be a major trof axis across the eastern U.S. extending well south through the Gulf next week. Upper level winds should be out of the southwest at 50+ kts from the Bay of Campeche northeast across the Yucatan and western Cuba. SW winds of 50-80 kts across south Florida next week. You're protected. As Tomas passes south of the DR/Haiti it should run into a brick wall and slow to a crawl. As the trof pushes eastward across the NW Caribbean, Tomas should take a very sharp right turn, probably into Haiti, possibly the DR.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301432
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TWELFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BEARING DOWN ON ST. LUCIA
AND ST. VINCENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 60.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS

[jinftl]

Scary prospect for Haiti with 1 million+ living in tent cities and a cholera outbreak trying to be stomped out.....even a prolonged rain event with little wind could prove disastrous if tomas meanders

For those of you in Florida somewhat concerned about Tomas, Tomas is NOT going to be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico or the U.S. There will be a major trof axis across the eastern U.S. extending well south through the Gulf next week. Upper level winds should be out of the southwest at 50+ kts from the Bay of Campeche northeast across the Yucatan and western Cuba. SW winds of 50-80 kts across south Florida next week. You're protected. As Tomas passes south of the DR/Haiti it should run into a brick wall and slow to a crawl. As the trof pushes eastward across the NW Caribbean, Tomas should take a very sharp right turn, probably into Haiti, possibly the DR.

[HURAKAN]

St. Lucia:

Wind from the ENE (070 degrees) at 46 MPH (40 KT) gusting to 67 MPH (58 KT)

[SouthDadeFish]

So in 18 hours Tomas went from a "tropical wave" to a hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

wow, no RECON needed to say it's a hurricane

[gatorcane]

They are very hesitant to show a curve to the north...

[northjaxpro]

My thoughts and prayers to all down in the Windward Islands as Hurricane Tomas passes through today. To our fellow Storm2K bloggers down in that area, please be safe!


Tomas unfortunately will probably be the most eventful and potentially most destructive tropical cyclone of the season. As this week progresses, I pray for all down in the Caribbean who are bracing for this potential monster, and could be impacted by Tomas' wrath, especially the island nation of Haiti, which has just been ravished by disaster in 2010. I just hope somehow that Tomas will be in a weakened state by shear on its closest approach to Hispaniola and Jamaica later this week, but the forecast of it being at least a major category 3 hurricane by that time look terribly ominous.

[wxman57]

So in 18 hours Tomas went from a "tropical wave" to a hurricane.

Not quite. Tomas should have been upgraded LONG before it was, possibly 24-36 hours earlier. NHC waited until it was a rapidly-developing TS before it was named.

[SouthDadeFish]

The Windward islands didn't have much time to prepare for this...

[northjaxpro]

So in 18 hours Tomas went from a "tropical wave" to a hurricane.

Not quite. Tomas should have been upgraded LONG before it was, possibly 24-36 hours earlier. NHC waited until it was a rapidly-developing TS before it was named.

Yes, I agree with this. This was a case where NHC waited just a tad too long to make the decision to upgrade the system.

[cycloneye]

Discussion has not been released yet.I suspect Stewart will do a long and with plenty of details.

[SouthDadeFish]

So in 18 hours Tomas went from a "tropical wave" to a hurricane.

Not quite. Tomas should have been upgraded LONG before it was, possibly 24-36 hours earlier. NHC waited until it was a rapidly-developing TS before it was named.

That's my point and why I said tropical wave in quotation marks I really hope the delay in classification didn't hinder preparations in the islands.

[northjaxpro]

So in 18 hours Tomas went from a "tropical wave" to a hurricane.

Not quite. Tomas should have been upgraded LONG before it was, possibly 24-36 hours earlier. NHC waited until it was a rapidly-developing TS before it was named.

That's my point and why I said tropical wave in quotation marks I really hope the delay in classification didn't hinder preparations in the islands.

Amen! I pray those people down in the Windward Islands rushed to completion their preparations. This situation is only getting worse with time currently because Tomas continues to intensify.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks better on every radar frame. The southern eyewall has really filled in.

[wxman57]

They are very hesitant to show a curve to the north...

Yes, they are. They appear to be ignoring most of the models and going close to the UKMET. I don't think they're trusting the UKMET so much as they may be unwilling to predict a Haiti/DR hit until they're more sure. Sometimes, it seems, they'll just slow down a storm prior to possible landfall and wait until they're more sure where it will make the turn. I think that's the case here. Only explanation I can think of. They don't want to create a panic in Haiti until they're more confident in the track. Just a guess.

In fact, models indicate a turn east of Haiti into the DR presently:

[chrisjslucia]

So in 18 hours Tomas went from a "tropical wave" to a hurricane.

Not quite. Tomas should have been upgraded LONG before it was, possibly 24-36 hours earlier. NHC waited until it was a rapidly-developing TS before it was named.

Some of us were following this system for almost a week but with no track consensus we rely on NHC to make a call and they did so far later than was possible, from what I understand. Sadly, it's only at the point they issue warnings that the the smaller islands are really alerted. Most people here were expecting rain, not much more. There really needs to be an open discussion that looks at how we can improve on this.