ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1104 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT

* AT 1100 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO.
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COLLEGE STATION... MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WIXON VALLEY...COLLEGE STATION AND BRYAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM FOR THE WARNED AREA.

&&

[Dave]

Tornado Warning box in Pink on (severe t-storm warning is in red) this radar shot:

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/07/10 1557Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1545Z RUMINSKI
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED WARMING OF CLOUD
TOP TEMPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HERMINE PAST 1-2 HRS INVOF
KGYB..KRWV AND KCLL. THIS LIKELY TRANSLATING TO A MODEST REDUCTION IN
RAIN RATES THIS AREA. HOWEVER..CD CLD TOP TEMPS AND STG ONSHORE FLOW CONT
WITH CNVTV BANDS OVER COASTAL AREAS FROM BRAZORIA THRU CALHOUN. RAPID
MVMNT OF INDIVUAL CELLS WITHIN BANDS IS HELPING TO MITIGATE RAINFALL
TOTALS SOMEWHAT BUT AREAS OF REPEAT ACTIVITY STILL RECEIVING EXCESSIVE
AMNTS. LATEST 3 HR AUTOMATED GOES RAINFALL ESTS THRU 1515Z SHOWING
GENERAL 2-3" TOTALS FROM CALHOUN TO MATAGORDA NWRD TO COLORADO.
.
CD CLD TOPS ALSO WRAPPING ARND CENTER OF HERMINE AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS N
OUT OF LIVE OAK. STLT ESTS ALSO SHOWING GENERAL 2-3" RAINFALL AMNTS PAST
3 HRS ENDING 1515Z ASCD WITH CENTER OF HERMINE.
.
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS..HEAVY RAIN/FF THREAT EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THRU 19Z
IN AREA BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY CALHOUN..FAYETTE..GRIMES AND GALVESTON AS CNVTV
BANDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BASICALLY IN PLACE. ADL HEAVY/RAIN FF THREAT
AREA ALG NWRD TRACK OF CENTER OF HERMINE FROM ATASCOSA/KARNES INTO COMAL.

[HouTXmetro]

There is not much doubt that Hermine is moving east of forecasted points.

These tropical systems once they get inland are often full of surprises.

Not only east of the forecast points, but it appears to have stopped any westward progression and is moving due north with a hint of NNE.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Band coming through Sugar land now. It's POURING

[Dave]

1 hour doppler radar rainfall from 10:20 to 11:20 cdt from San Antonio NWS radar:

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1122 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ATASCOSA COUNTY...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL BANDERA COUNTY...
BEXAR COUNTY...
SOUTH CENTRAL COMAL COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY...
WEST CENTRAL KARNES COUNTY...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MEDINA COUNTY...
WILSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT.

* AT 1116 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETERMINED THAT
RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE FLASH FLOODING FROM
THE RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WINDCREST...UNIVERSAL CITY...TIMBERWOOD PARK...THE DOMINION...
TERRELL HILLS...SUTHERLAND SPRINGS...STOCKDALE...ST. HEDWIG...
SOMERSET...SHAVANO PARK...SELMA...SEA WORLD...SCHERTZ...SAN
ANTONIO...POTH...OLMOS PARK...LYTLE...LIVE OAK...LEON VALLEY...LEON
SPRINGS...LEMING...LACKLAND AFB...LA VERNIA...KOSCIUSKO...KIRBY...
HOLLYWOOD PARK...HILL COUNTRY VILLAGE...HELOTES...FLORESVILLE...
ELMENDORF...CROSS MOUNTAIN...CHINA GROVE...CALAVERAS LAKE...
BULVERDE AND ALAMO HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL FLOOD CREEKS, STREAMS, STREET
INTERSECTIONS, CULVERTS AND UNDERPASSES. LOW LYING PLACES THAT
NORMALLY FLOOD COULD BECOME DEATH TRAPS. DO NOT CROSS ANY FLOODED
AREA. TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

[wxman22]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1122 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ATASCOSA COUNTY...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL BANDERA COUNTY...
BEXAR COUNTY...
SOUTH CENTRAL COMAL COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY...
WEST CENTRAL KARNES COUNTY...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MEDINA COUNTY...
WILSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT.

* AT 1116 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETERMINED THAT
RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE FLASH FLOODING FROM
THE RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WINDCREST...UNIVERSAL CITY...TIMBERWOOD PARK...THE DOMINION...
TERRELL HILLS...SUTHERLAND SPRINGS...STOCKDALE...ST. HEDWIG...
SOMERSET...SHAVANO PARK...SELMA...SEA WORLD...SCHERTZ...SAN
ANTONIO...POTH...OLMOS PARK...LYTLE...LIVE OAK...LEON VALLEY...LEON
SPRINGS...LEMING...LACKLAND AFB...LA VERNIA...KOSCIUSKO...KIRBY...
HOLLYWOOD PARK...HILL COUNTRY VILLAGE...HELOTES...FLORESVILLE...
ELMENDORF...CROSS MOUNTAIN...CHINA GROVE...CALAVERAS LAKE...
BULVERDE AND ALAMO HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL FLOOD CREEKS, STREAMS, STREET
INTERSECTIONS, CULVERTS AND UNDERPASSES. LOW LYING PLACES THAT
NORMALLY FLOOD COULD BECOME DEATH TRAPS. DO NOT CROSS ANY FLOODED
AREA. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.

[Dave]

Laying in closer view of flash flood warning area from KEWX:

[mcallum177]

It has been pouring for the past 45 minutes here in North DFW, theres several inches of water on our streets.

[WacoWx]

SOLID band coming through Waco right now

[vbhoutex]

SOLID band coming through Waco right now

Hermine is quite a large storm. We also have very heavy rain bands currently moving through the metro Houston area. Looks like a long wet day from many of us. EVERYONE please be safe. It doesn't take much to cause flooding with some of these bands, especially in areas that have already been hit by heavy rains.

[Portastorm]

As of 11:45 am, it looks like the center of the storm will be moving over the San Antonio metro area in the next few hours.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ewx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[Dave]

KHGX - NWS - Houston TX

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST...ECNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 646...

VALID 071641Z - 071815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 646 CONTINUES.

THE TORNADO THREAT CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND
IN ECNTRL TX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WW 646 IS
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. A NEW TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
ISSUED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS ECNTRL TX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF SAN
ANTONIO WITH A DISTINCT RAINBAND EAST OF THE CENTER EXTENDING FROM
PORT OCONNER ON THE TX COAST NNWWD TO NEAR WACO. THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IS ESTIMATING 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KT RANGE ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 2.50 TO 2.75 INCH RANGE. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE NWD ACROSS ECNTRL TX
SUGGESTING THE TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD NWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF DALLAS/FORT WORTH. THE TORNADO THREAT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE MIDDLE TX COAST SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE AS ROTATING STORMS MOVE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN VICTORIA AND HOUSTON.

..BROYLES.. 09/07/2010


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1145 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 35 MILES SOUTH OF
MARKHAM...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PALACIOS...AND MOVING NORTH AT
45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO BAY CITY...AREAS WEST OF MATAGORDA...AND SOUTH TEXAS
NUCLEAR PLANT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. STRONG WINDS
MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OR DAMAGE
BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW!

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1158 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 1154 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THAT FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO PALACIOS. ADDITIONAL RAIN
BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF HERMINE WILL ROTATE INTO THESE COUNTIES
AND BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN THE WARNING AREA AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY 2 PM.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WADSWORTH...VANDERBILT...SOUTH TEXAS NUCLEAR PLANT...SHERIDAN...
SARGENT...ROCK ISLAND...PIERCE...NADA...MIDFIELD...MATAGORDA...
LOUISE...LAKE TEXANA DAM...HUNGERFORD...GARWOOD...FRELSBURG...
EGYPT...DANEVANG...CORDELE...BLESSING...WHARTON...WEIMAR...VAN
VLECK...MARKHAM...LA WARD...GANADO...EL CAMPO...EDNA...EAGLE
LAKE...COLUMBUS...BOLING-IAGO AND BAY CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...BAYOUS..AND FARM-TO-MARKET OR OTHER
SECONDARY ROADS MAY FLOOD QUICKLY. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS
THE GROUND!

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
WARNED AREA.

[wxman22]

Getting Tropical Storm conditions right now in San Antonio

[vbhoutex]

Getting Tropical Storm conditions right now in San Antonio

I am concerned that Hermine will maintain her identity much further inland than normal(already is)and this may be the story as she moves up I-35. Here in Houston conditions have deteriorated a lot and many areas of the metro are experiencing heavy rains. Radar appears to show training setting up over the West side(my area) and it is a torrential downpour right now and has been raining for at least the last 45 minutes without much let up.

[Dave]

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