ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Air Force Met]

LOL

hello, subjectivity [/quote]

Exactly. What Avila thinks is organized and well defined is not what Stewart thinks is organized or well defined.

Avila is a storm killer...doesn't like to intensify them...think of him as "Round Up" for hurricanes...

Stewart is a storm builder...loves to name them and strengthen them...think of him as "Miracle Grow" for hurricanes...

[bbadon]

LOL

hello, subjectivity

Exactly. What Avila thinks is organized and well defined is not what Stewart thinks is organized or well defined.

Avila is a storm killer...doesn't like to intensify them...think of him as "Round Up" for hurricanes...

Stewart is a storm builder...loves to name them and strengthen them...think of him as "Miracle Grow" for hurricanes...[/quote]

Now that is funny.

[TexasF6]

Discussion From Austin/SA Offices

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE CHANGING OUR LOCAL WEATHER BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY FROM LEE COUNTY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...PW`S VALUES WILL BE INCREASING FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROPICAL AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TRACKS WEST NORTHWEST. THIS
FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LATEST NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS HAS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THAT PERIOD.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF
MEXICO/BROWNSVILLE/CORPUS CHRISTI AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN
AREAS...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE WEATHER
FORECAST CONDITIONS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

IF THIS TROPICAL WAVE BECOME A TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO... AND TRACKS WEST NORTHWEST AS THE MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING...THE FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. THIS IS A COMPLICATED
SITUATION...THEREFORE...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

[Weatherfreak000]

If the NHC drops 95L and 96L (Both now arguably Tropical Cyclones at one point in their life) I will be sorely disappointed. I wrote the NHC an email concerning 95L. I live now around Luling, LA which wasn't exactly as close as you would need to be for realistic tropical effects. I felt the oh so characteristic lower pressure and felt the warmth of the rainfall and I can say I strongly feel that was a Tropical Depression.

For the past two days I have been starting to avoid watching weather to do other things but man. Considering the MJO Pulse and strength of the convection on July 4th, I still cannot believe how this week turned out. Everything was smothered.

[HouTXmetro]

1. Where is the upper Level Low?
2. Which way is it moving?
3. If it's where I think it is....Central/upper TX coast, shouldn't 96L follow it to the NNW instead of WNW since the Upper Low has weakened the High?

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 300
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF EASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Frank P]

OK I guess I'm back on the 96 bandwagon.. convection continues to increase.. center might be around 23.3 and 93.3.. if this is the case, and that is a big IF, then you basically have convection building aroung the center of circulation.. of course this is all speculation on my part from what I've observed from the latest vis sat loop presentation.. a TD or TS is not out of the question..

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Brent]

This storm confuses me.

Still no time for anything more than a weak TS. Big rainmaker and nothing else.

[lester]

50 % chance for development now.

[redfish1]

it looks to be moving NW to me can someone more educated confirm this?

[HURAKAN]

96L may want to take Grace's place as the ugliest named system in the GoM!!

[jasons2k]

It might get a name but it still reminds me of Fay (2002) but further south. A stretched-out ginormous mess.

[tolakram]

30 frame loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[HURAKAN]

When Fay was named in 2002 it looked at lot better than 96L

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... maybe cancelling the RECON was a bad decision

[tolakram]

Perhaps they figured NOAA can fill in if needed?

[HouTXmetro]

with such a weak system, what are the chances of center relocation?

[HURAKAN]

Perhaps they figured NOAA can fill in if needed?

But NOAA doesn't do low-level reconnaisance

[HURAKAN]

with such a weak system, what are the chances of center relocation?

Very likely. The center in weak systems jumps all over the place before it gets established