ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[wxman57]

I think it will very likely be a hurricane within 36 hrs. It's organizing quickly now. Could reach 100-110 kts before landfall. Still has almost 3 days over water with low wind shear.

[maxx9512]

Looking at the last visable pics from yesterday to the first ones of today Richard seems to actually
moved west. Is that what I see or is it because clouds haved moved more around the center? It could possibly
be slightly a bit north and west or like I said above. Just an amatuer observation.

[plasticup]

I think it will very likely be a hurricane within 36 hrs. It's organizing quickly now. Could reach 100-110 kts before landfall. Still has almost 3 days over water with low wind shear.

And the water is certainly still warm enough, despite my local weather

[wxman57]

Looking at the last visible pics from yesterday to the first ones of today Richard seems to actually
moved west. Is that what I see or is it because clouds have moved more around the center? It could possibly
be slightly a bit north and west or like I said above. Just an amateur observation.

When you're looking at the clouds, you're not seeing the center, the low-level circulation. That center has remained nearly stationary but the squalls have built westward over the center as the shear diminished.

[maxx9512]

Thanks wxman57. I thought that might be what it was. I guess that means it is getting better organized.
It does look better in the pics compared to last visibles yesterday.

[Vortex]

organizing a decent clip now...similar to how the GFDL handled it in yesterday's/wednesday runs....wouldn't be surprised to see it pull right up to the yucatan and then slow way down or even stall before it gets picked up by the trough middle of next week...The stronger the storm the further North it will end up the 3-5 day time frame as it will be steered more by the mid-upper levels(200mb) Should it be near 20N/85-86W late monday this would lead to a greater threat of being picked up and shunted off to the N/NE late tuesday/wed.

[maxx9512]

I was hoping to maybe get some rain out of this system as it has not rained at my house since Oct. 1st.
Also to be honest talking to some people at like Home Depot, lowes, those in the construction trades
are saying a storm might help bring some work. I know it is not the way to get it, but the way it has
fell apart here, I see where they and self included are coming from. I know it is not the way to help get work
but when you have nothing going on I see the point. It does though bring alot of problems with it too. Please don't burm me alive,
but it is what I have heard though not to loudly!! Sorry to go off topic.

[Vortex]

how fast it moves or doesnt over the next 48 hours will have big implications down the road in terms of intensity and landfalls...

[dwsqos2]

There are almost hints of a wind shift as far south as 15.5 N.

[TheBurn]

[Ntxw]

That gulf ridge has already taken it's toll pushing Richard more south than a lot of people have thought currently. A Belize landfall is not impossible now, and given the models slowing him down because of troughing not as strong as before, he might just be destined to die a slow death over the Yucatan being on land longer.

[dwsqos2]

And, the last vortex message places the center around 15.5 N. My issue with the storm isn't warm water or favorable 200 mb winds, it's the potential for it to crash into Honduras.

[wxman57]

And, the last vortex message places the center around 15.5 N. My issue with the storm isn't warm water or favorable 200 mb winds, it's the potential for it to crash into Honduras.

I saw that. Now I'm starting to wonder if it'll survive. Pressure up to 1010mb, too.

It appears that the advisory had already been written before the plane found the center farther south and the pressure only 1010mb.

[HURAKAN]

close up

[Sanibel]

The Belize board is watching it. I think they are a little too relaxed, but, on the other hand, there is some persisting dry air parked over them. October has sent powerful storms in their direction before. Perhaps NHC is correct again about intensity. Maybe it could top-out at category 2?


Dry Air:

[wxman57]

By the way, I am still forecasting an 85-100 kt storm into Belize in about 72 hrs.

[Sanibel]

By the way, I am still forecasting an 85-100 kt storm into Belize in about 72 hrs.

Reasonable considering the tropical potential down there in this particular climatology.


It's a stickler because of so many factors including dry air that might trade-off intensity for dry air ingestion. On the other hand a storm like Keith went crazy in short distance on this track and Richard is under a ridge.


Hurricane prediction is the graveyard of egos (lol)...



Keith (2000):

[Pigsnibble]

Looks like the center of the blob is moving more W-NW than NHC's projected W-SW movement ?

[maxx9512]

I noticed that also, looks slightly above straight west.

[Sanibel]

With what could be a pre-hurricane eye-like feature.