ATL: EARL - Models

[Riptide]

It looks like the trough has slowed and weakened considerably. Outer banks receives some rain from the outer bands on this run.

I doubt Earl misses the trough completely but it may be possible.

[ColinDelia]

174 hours

[KWT]

It looks like the trough has slowed and weakened considerably. Outer banks receives some rain from the outer bands on this run.

I doubt Earl misses the trough completely but it may be possible.

I'd be very surprised if it missed the connection, the set-up is a textbook 70W recurve looking at it, of course by that point it may well have raked the NE Caribbean anyway so its not a good thing even if it does recurve...no fishy here!

[ColinDelia]

I'd be very surprised if it missed the connection, the set-up is a textbook 70W recurve looking at it, of course by that point it may well have raked the NE Caribbean anyway so its not a good thing even if it does recurve...no fishy here!

Yeah and IF This verifies Bermuda is on the strong side of Earl

[Riptide]

It looks like the trough has slowed and weakened considerably. Outer banks receives some rain from the outer bands on this run.

I doubt Earl misses the trough completely but it may be possible.

I'd be very surprised if it missed the connection, the set-up is a textbook 70W recurve looking at it, of course by that point it may well have raked the NE Caribbean anyway so its not a good thing even if it does recurve...no fishy here!

Yeah, there is no negative tilt to work with at all and all the westward progress is futile. Alas, the ECM has trended west with Earl so you never know what may happen.

[KWT]

Still it could get close enough to provide some gusty weather you never know, it asll depends on how far west it tracks before it lifts up really but odds are pretty good that this one gets lifted out close to 70W.

[ColinDelia]

Though if it exactly verifies it is pretty far west but the error out here could be huge

[xironman]

The OBX better hope that second SW shows up or else it is not going to be a fun labor day.

[KWT]

Though if it exactly verifies it is pretty far west but the error out here could be huge

The GFS is probably the most westerly model out there though, the HWRF/GFDL as well as most of the other models other then maybe the CMC suggests a recurve at 70W, which looks reasonable enough given the synoptics.

Of course if that was to occur as the GFS shows it'll be close call, but I think the interaction Fiona has with Earl makes the GFS unrealistic past 96-120hrs.

[OuterBanker]

At first I was ready to write off Earl as a recurve. Giving us some great surf, but no ill effects.

Models have been trending a little more west and now even the tpc is between Bermuda and US.

Think I'll loosen the collar a bit.

Gotta call my electrican and get that transfer switch installed, he's been puttin it off for a year now.

I figure if I get the switch installed nothing will happen.

Then there's Fiona. And it's not even September yet, Geeze.

Gimme back the season over boring time back please.

[Time_Zone]

Looks like this one could end up affecting us here in Nova Scotia down the line....i'd be surprised if it did but who knows.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 281230
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100828 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100828  1200   100829  0000   100829  1200   100830  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.8N  51.0W   17.0N  54.1W   18.0N  57.1W   19.6N  59.8W
BAMD    15.8N  51.0W   16.2N  54.3W   16.6N  57.1W   17.3N  59.4W
BAMM    15.8N  51.0W   16.7N  54.4W   17.6N  57.3W   18.7N  59.8W
LBAR    15.8N  51.0W   16.5N  54.4W   17.2N  57.8W   18.4N  60.8W
SHIP        50KTS          57KTS          65KTS          74KTS
DSHP        50KTS          57KTS          65KTS          74KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100830  1200   100831  1200   100901  1200   100902  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.3N  62.5W   23.7N  68.6W   23.7N  74.3W   24.7N  74.2W
BAMD    18.2N  61.5W   21.0N  64.6W   26.3N  68.3W   33.1N  70.8W
BAMM    20.0N  62.2W   22.8N  66.7W   25.7N  71.5W   28.9N  74.1W
LBAR    19.5N  63.2W   22.1N  66.0W   25.9N  69.8W   30.3N  73.2W
SHIP        83KTS          91KTS          94KTS          93KTS
DSHP        83KTS          91KTS          94KTS          93KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.8N LONCUR =  51.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  15.8N LONM12 =  47.2W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  15.7N LONM24 =  43.2W
WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS =  999MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   75NM RD34SE =   45NM RD34SW =   10NM RD34NW =  75NM


[Evil Jeremy]

The 06z model run has continued the trend to the west. The new GFDL has Earl crossing 70W at around 25N, as opposed to 30N from the 00z run.

[BigA]

Given the trend since yesterday, definitely one for the U.S east coast to keep an extremely close eye on.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

GFS has by far the sharpest recurve, with the CMC, GFDL and HWRF showing a storm that slowly transitions its motion.

[Dean4Storms]

Going to be a nail biter for the east coast on this one.

[KWT]

Te reason the GFS has a sharper recurve is because it brings it in closer to the trough axis therefore the turn is sharper, whilst the other runs are a little more t othe east so it undergoes a slower recurve.

[sunnyday]

Do you feel that although it will be close for the East Coast per se that Florida looks to be out of danger? The models don't seem aimed at Florida. Thank you for your answers.

[lester]

[KWT]

GFS is a little to the north of the 06z run, thats a good move and hopefully that starts to become a trend as well!

[ConvergenceZone]

Even though it still looks like a recurver based on those model plots, it's much closer to the US than Danielle was. The question is whether or not the models will shift west anymore, of are they as far west as they are going to be? Will they shift east instead? Hmmmmmm