ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Sanibel]

Ill defined Low is south of Jamaica and stringing out convergence convection behind it in blobs. The whole mess is being ground against the sheared synoptic just to its Northwest.

[jasons2k]

It's like Groundhog Day again. Starting to think my call of "Alex by the end of the week" may have been too aggressive. I still think we will be watching "Alex" in the Gulf of Mexico out of this before it's all said and done.

Meanwhile, back to watching the paint dry.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Let's see if we get a center relocation to that big blob to the east if the circulation can get down to the surface. We'll have to watch the buoy's and surface obs in the area to see if it can close off or not.

[SoupBone]

It's like Groundhog Day again. Starting to think my call of "Alex by the end of the week" may have been too aggressive. I still think we will be watching "Alex" in the Gulf of Mexico out of this before it's all said and done.

Meanwhile, back to watching the paint dry.

Haha...you are one of the funniest mods I've seen on a message board. Anyway, I agree this thing is just crazy but this is typical for a June storm right? Normally we wouldn't have much to look at anyway so I guess it's better than having nothing to do.

Anyone want to come help me clean my pool?

[txagwxman]

Still very poorly organized, there is no surface circulation to speak of. This may change as it gets into the W. Caribbean, but have to give the GFS some leeway.

[Stormcenter]

I personally would rather watch my grass grow then keep track of what 93L will eventually do.

It's like Groundhog Day again. Starting to think my call of "Alex by the end of the week" may have been too aggressive. I still think we will be watching "Alex" in the Gulf of Mexico out of this before it's all said and done.

Meanwhile, back to watching the paint dry.

Haha...you are one of the funniest mods I've seen on a message board. Anyway, I agree this thing is just crazy but this is typical for a June storm right? Normally we wouldn't have much to look at anyway so I guess it's better than having nothing to do.

Anyone want to come help me clean my pool?

[Dean4Storms]

That convective burst south of Haiti is getting more of my attention.

[HouTXmetro]

That convective burst south of Haiti is getting more of my attention.

THat burst is weakening rapidly....convection is increasing south of Jamacia but it looks extremely disorganized.

[vbhoutex]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

convection continues to fire

It does look like clouds building over area of interest. Here's the change in 4hrs.

edit: That line through the picture is 75W

What I find most interesting about this is the fact that the energy in the Eastern convection appears to transfer west to the convection that is building S of Jamaica. I don't see any fast move towards consolidation attm but will be watching it all day for hints. We may be waiting till 93L is almost on the Yucatan for any real consolidation and a real chance to become a TD. Still fighting some of the shear in the area from what I see on visible, if I know what I am looking at. Hey, it is still June. We normally don't see this type of weather in the tropics till July. No doubt in my mind that this is going to be a VERY INTERESTING SEASON.

[Comanche]

Just looks pathetic at the moment, (as far as organization).

[Florida1118]

No Recon until thursday or until it can get together better

[cycloneye]

Look south of Jamaica at loop below.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... 0&info=vis

[Florida1118]

Convection from the east blob seems to be branching out to the west blob. The west blob has a spin in it that is easy to see.New convection is starting to flare up in both. Interesting...

[cycloneye]

Interesting excerpt from the EPAC Tropical Storm Darby discussion concerning 93L.


SOME OF THE
MODELS EVEN FORECAST SOME WEAK BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE
DEVELOPING CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE AFTER THAT SYSTEM ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN GULF MEXICO. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW ANY INTERACTION WITH
THE CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE BECAUSE IT NEITHER DEVELOPS DARBY OR THE
OTHER SYSTEM. DUE TO THE POOR 06Z INITIALIZATION AND SHORT TERM
FORECAST TRENDS BY THE GFS MODEL...LESS WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON
THAT MODEL AND IT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity over Jamaica

[rockyman]

The dynamite is southwest of Jamaica (low wind shear, low level vorticity, upper anticyclone, extreme heat content)...now we're just waiting (and waiting) for the match. As of right now, there's little convergence and almost no convection near the center (though some convection could move over the center from the northeast...not exactly the way an LLC normally gets established)

[AdamFirst]

Knowing how excruciatingly slow this is taking, this thread will likely get 80+ pages with little or no development at all.

[Florida1118]

It probably will get to 80+ pages.

[HURAKAN]

That may be our problem!!

[Weatherfreak000]

Based on what ive been seeing on the model rounds we are in three camps here...


Scenario #1 Non-development Mexico/STX threat.

Scenario #2 Development before the GOM, Not rapid, Central Gulf Threat

Scenario #3 Stronger development before GOM, Florida Threat?


The third scenario is what i'm uncertain about, just reading into the trends of the HWRF, which always seems to be the right outlier as the EURO is typically a West Outlier.