ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[fox13weather]

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... odels.html

[Frank P]

Doesn't look like it will be interacting with Cuba at this point. Can we declare the Euro a bust if that doesn't happen and it doesn't get destroyed as the Euro states?

Oh hell yeah we can..
I'd be really surprised if this thing hits Cuba, only from a climatological standpoint... my best uneducated guess is that it will continue to go WNW thru the straits, after that we'll have to wait and see.. but I always reserve the option to eat low fat grilled crow when required.

[caneman]

Yeah Frank, It will be good to give the ole Euro thing a rest According to our local Met who posted the models above, nearly all are taking it through the straits, keys.

[Weatherfreak000]

It's time to throw out the western solution, in my opinion. The storm DID in fact develop. I foresee it getting markedly strong. When this happens 97L will more likely than not feel the weakness like wxman suggested.



The EURO has been complete garbage thus far. No reason to think that's going to change.



(Just my opinion of course)

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I like NHC track, SW LA/SE TX..

[xcool22]

EURO poor job imo

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EURO doing good job with 500 and keeping it a fairly weak system..

[ROCK]

I see we have more EURO haters out there....

but it has shown the westward solution for lets say 3 days now,,,NONE of the other models had shown this,,,even the tweaked CMC....it took till yesterday before it came on board...regardless of intensity....

so hate away...the next run this afternoon will be interesting....

one more rant...this is JULY folks not August or Sept when we have short lived ridges. It not like we have some wicked trof digging in a few days....climo speaks volumes and is something that should be taken into account along with guidance that does not seem to be the norm....JMO

[Portastorm]

:sun:

During busy times, let's try and keep our posts something of substance. Thanks.

[xcool22]

ROCK .not me

[xcool22]

Portastorm sorry.

[ROCK]

Noitced the GFS ensembles have a trip over Cuba in the offering....probably jack up the LLC thus a weak system after exiting....the ECM showed this in yesterdays run as it booked it across Cuba and had a weak system into the lower -mid TX coast...


I can see a sw jog in this as the ridge crunches it....

[Portastorm]

ROCK .not me

One word posts and emoticons only serve to clog the bandwith. I'm not trying to single anyone out, friend, and if I/we see others ... we will handle.

[caneman]

:sun:

During busy times, let's try and keep our posts something of substance. Thanks.

Thank you for stepping in.

[Steve]

Euro is almost always west-biased though. The criticism was always that it overdid subtropical ridges and highs whereas the GFS (MRF back when) always tried to weaken them. So if, in general, a season is going to be a west gulf coast season, the European/ECMWF is going to appear to perform better by default. Joe B predicted this was a west of 65 season, and so far he's looking strong on that idea. Speaking of Joe B and the free video days, Chantau, which I believe peaked as a strong tropical storm, continues to move WNW into mainland China teleconnecting to ridging in the eastern US in the 6-10 day period. This probably means that the SWLA/SETX scenario is solid. It should be noted that it climbed a bit NNW for a couple of days before bending back which you could say was a local issue or may telegraph some latitude with TD#3. It also has downstream implications if a tropical surge materializes behind TD #3 in the next few days. That would likely mean another Western Gulf system if anything materializes. Intersting 10 days ahead for everyone from the Islands to the Keys to the Northern and Western Gulf Coasts. Stay tuned, and stock up on all the alcohol and red bulls you need to get through the weekend staring at loops, watching models and reading comments.

Steve

[jhpigott]

Forgive the ignorance on my part, but does the most current model suite initialize TD#3 where the NHC has it or are we waiting for the next set of models for proper initialization?

[MWatkins]

Looks like the opreational GFS has shifted a bit north from the 00z run through 24 hours.

Here is a comparison at the same verify time...a little slower and NE:

12Z Run Today at 24 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_024m.gif

00Z Run Last Night

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_036m.gif

Looks like it's influenced by the ULL...

MW

[rockyman]

The Operation GFS has shifted east since 00z...with landfall closer to SE La than to TX/LA

[rockyman]

Para--TX/LA border (shift east from 00z...which showed a hit between Galveston and Corpus)

[ROCK]

Para--TX/LA border (shift east from 00z...which showed a hit between Galveston and Corpus)

thats not the border my friend more like SETX...ridge on top of it...