ATL: IGOR - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

hes curving out at 50-55W...on this run....

That's why I think the odds are about %50 %50 for recurve right now. It all depends on how strong that weakeness is....

[PTrackerLA]

Can't wait to see the 12z Euro now, the 00z was quite alarming.

[Comanche]

Can't wait to see the 12z Euro now, the 00z was quite alarming.

Not really alarming, if it correctly verifies the yucatan area genesis, it had it moving westward in BOC, and continuing west.......so likely into the same magnetic area that has captured landfalls this year (N mex/S Tex)

[StarmanHDB]

What else is new... everything recurves this season especially something forming that far east.

Do you not want this potential beast to recurve?

[gatorcane]

Models are screaming recurve yet again which seems the best forecast at this point.

Not the year for Cape Verde Systems getting to the U.S it seems or even Cape Verde systems making into the Caribbean for that matter. We will need to watch the WCAR later in the season or some systems that get going in the Caribbean or near the Bahamas.

[Ivanhater]

Models are screaming recurve yet again which seems the best forecast at this point.

Not the year for Cape Verde Systems getting to the U.S it seems or even Cape Verde systems making into the Caribbean for that matter. We will need to watch the WCAR later in the season or some systems that get going in the Caribbean or near the Bahamas.

Which models would that be? Have you looked at the Euro? I'll post it

Trapped under the ridge that is building on top. Could it change? sure, but models screaming recurve? Nope

[MWatkins]

Sigh.

Here we go again. Models at 180 hours+ showing a recurve....so almost everyone has already dismissed Igor as a non-threat.

Nope. The GFS for the 2nd run in a row suggests a significant threat to the NE US. Ultimately, it gets out after getting close to land, but anything like the 12Z run would cause hurricane warnings for the US and Canada at the very least.

However, I simply do not understand the deterministic view of the model runs in the exteded. Sure, they show it getting north of 20 before 60W, but this is happening a long way out in the models. If the models fade west like Earl, we will have a threat setting up not unlike Earl.

Remember...guidance not gospel.

And, as WX57 points out, historically storms forming in the area where Igor developed at this time of year have a 50% chance of hitting the US based on previous tracks (eliminating the dissipated storms).

Even that stat doesn't suggest a recurve is locked in.

Patience...we'll be watching this one for a while.

MW

[terrapintransit]

Models are screaming recurve yet again which seems the best forecast at this point.

Not the year for Cape Verde Systems getting to the U.S it seems or even Cape Verde systems making into the Caribbean for that matter. We will need to watch the WCAR later in the season or some systems that get going in the Caribbean or near the Bahamas.

Doesn't appear to be any screaming here yet...

[StormClouds63]

Other than Gaston (which is about to expire), all CV systems have eventually made the turn toward the north. Why does Igor not follow the same scenario which has prevailed this 2010 season? The ridge simply has not been strong enough to block troughs and their northward pull of tropical systems.

For every CV system there are arguments back and forth about whether the disturbance moves west or gets pulled north. The results so far speak for themselves. Any U.S. threat comes from the Caribbean or GOM, IMO. Regardless, Igor could be our 3rd major of the season.

Just poster's opinion and not an official forecast.

[KWT]

Yeah thats true MW, the only thing I will say is there has been a strong trough between 60-70W...now of course if Igor stays weak its going to have a chance but if this gets to the same sort of strength Danielle did near say 55-60W then its pretty much doomed to lift out given the background pattern.

[hurricaneCW]

I've noticed some models developing a blocking high over eastern Canada, I think the persistent -NAO is eventually going to start reversing back to what it normally does. A -NAO indicates some form of blocking but the NAO has very little effect in July and August, but it's going to have a bit more power. Notice how even though the gfs recurves early and pulls in northwestward early, it takes it all the way to Atlantic Canada and there was a run that took it all the way to Maine.

I know a -NAO favors recurves but it can sometimes work to block a recurving storm and force it to go west. Will something like that happen with Igor, highly doubt it, but it's a possibility. As of now, I'm not expecting too much out of this system or the models because it's so far east. In 3 days or so, we'll see what happens, if there's any big spread, the intensity, ext.

[Ivanhater]

Some fascinating climo. I plotted all September storms passing within 65nm of Igor's point of formation from 1851-2009. There were 13 such storms. Here's the breakdown:

3 dissipated shortly after being designated
5 recurved well out to sea
5 struck the U.S.!! (2 of those hit the NE Caribbean)

Of the 5 that made landfall, there was:
1. The 1928 Okeechobee hurricane, which was also the only Cat 5 to hit PR
2. The Great 1938 New England Hurricane
3. The 1947 Hurricane that hit SE Florida as a major then New Orleans as a Cat 1
4. 1985's Gloria that struck the NE Caribbean then Long Island.
5. 1989's Hugo that devastated SC/NC

Those are some big names in the past. "I" storms often seem to be quite strong hurricanes that cause a lot of problems. Will this be Igor's first and only time the name is used? We'll see!

[KWT]

Very interesting Ivanhater, but synoptics obviously will top trump Climo more often then not...

Now what I will say is the models have been too far east in the first few runs of a system and I suspect we will see this one get far closer to 20/60 then the models are currently xpecting.

Beyond that and its a tougher call as per normal but based on this seasons presistant troughing and the fact that quite a few models show at least some sort of troughing near say 60-70W...even the ECM shows weak troughing over the north but its obviously not enough to do the job and the system does move more to the NW

(ps, the 00z ECM probably heading for a NE states/SE Canada threat down the line... the upper ridging isn't good enough for anything south of that on the 00z run.)

[Wx_Warrior]

[Steve]

The way it had been looking the last couple of days is that Igor-to-Be was going to plow along W-WNW and get to a break in the ridging. There was more coming over and down from Canada after that, but the split might have provided an alley out (ala Earl, Collin, Fiona, etc.). It's something to watch for a while, and the focus should be on the 500mb charts IMHO.

[Wx_Warrior]

[Steve]

>>Not the year for Cape Verde Systems getting to the U.S it seems or even Cape Verde systems making into the Caribbean for that matter.

This is another thing I don't understand. And since Gatorcane doesn't usually respond to requests for comment, I'll just throw it out there for anyone else who wants a bite. Why do posters proclaim this is the year of x or the year of y without ever explaining their reasoning? Seriously. It saps credibility from posters to do so who then never own up to the fact that they were jumping the gun or were wrong. God knows I throw some of that stuff out there, but I'm willing to own up and man up to what I say regardless of whether I am right or wrong. It would be great for posters to not be (what I consider to be) outrageously lazy with their matter-of-fact pronouncements if in fact they really don't know. Hey, if it's November, we can go back and classify what this was the year of or what it's not the year of. In the meantime, each successive storm will be part of the evolving late-summer and fall patterns that are setting up across the basin.

Oh, and has anyone heard from Stormcenter? Heh.

[Wx_Warrior]

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 081853
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1853 UTC WED SEP 8 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100908 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100908  1800   100909  0600   100909  1800   100910  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.8N  23.7W   14.0N  24.9W   14.4N  26.6W   15.4N  28.5W
BAMD    13.8N  23.7W   14.0N  25.9W   14.4N  28.1W   15.0N  30.3W
BAMM    13.8N  23.7W   14.2N  25.2W   14.9N  27.1W   16.0N  29.3W
LBAR    13.8N  23.7W   14.1N  25.5W   15.0N  27.9W   16.0N  30.9W
SHIP        40KTS          46KTS          54KTS          61KTS
DSHP        40KTS          46KTS          54KTS          61KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100910  1800   100911  1800   100912  1800   100913  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  31.0W   19.3N  37.2W   21.4N  44.8W   20.7N  52.1W
BAMD    15.7N  32.7W   17.3N  37.9W   19.6N  42.4W   22.3N  46.0W
BAMM    17.2N  32.1W   18.8N  38.7W   20.1N  45.3W   19.4N  50.5W
LBAR    17.1N  34.1W   18.1N  40.8W   18.6N  45.5W   19.0N  49.0W
SHIP        67KTS          77KTS          83KTS          84KTS
DSHP        67KTS          77KTS          83KTS          84KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.8N LONCUR =  23.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 =  22.6W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  14.0N LONM24 =  21.1W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =   45NM RD34SW =   45NM RD34NW =  30NM
 


[Wx_Warrior]