ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

Almost no chance this develops IMO, it looks like an absolute mess and has virtually no time.

[Aric Dunn]

Expect a more N then NW motion with a landfall closer to the TX/MEX border. It should follow the weak trough axis it is currently attached too.

[vbhoutex]

Almost no chance this develops IMO, it looks like an absolute mess and has virtually no time.

What do you mean by develops? NHC and the Navy see a decent chance for this to become a TC before it moves inland. My best guess without some more study of the situation is that it more than likely will move inland before development into a TC, but could be a big rainmaker for parts of MX and TX. Imo it still has a lot of consolidation to do before it can be classified.

[Aric Dunn]

Its nearly a depression... just needs a little more organized convection. the LLC is well defined and is slowly getting farther off shore... just drifting north atm

[Vortmax1]

I had to back off from the floater....the GOM shot looks like depression material there.
Thanks Aric...I think you're right:

[fasterdisaster]

Almost no chance this develops IMO, it looks like an absolute mess and has virtually no time.

What do you mean by develops? NHC and the Navy see a decent chance for this to become a TC before it moves inland. My best guess without some more study of the situation is that it more than likely will move inland before development into a TC, but could be a big rainmaker for parts of MX and TX. Imo it still has a lot of consolidation to do before it can be classified.

I mean I think it's unlikely it becomes a depression, and almost impossible for it to be a TS. I can't see an LLC in those clouds, unless someone could point it out to me. Also, if anything organization is getting worse.

[TwisterFanatic]

Almost no chance this develops IMO, it looks like an absolute mess and has virtually no time.

The NHC disagrees with you.

[Aric Dunn]

Almost no chance this develops IMO, it looks like an absolute mess and has virtually no time.

What do you mean by develops? NHC and the Navy see a decent chance for this to become a TC before it moves inland. My best guess without some more study of the situation is that it more than likely will move inland before development into a TC, but could be a big rainmaker for parts of MX and TX. Imo it still has a lot of consolidation to do before it can be classified.

I mean I think it's unlikely it becomes a depression, and almost impossible for it to be a TS. I can't see an LLC in those clouds, unless someone could point it out to me. Also, if anything organization is getting worse.

the satellite is pretty clear but the radar is even more clear... its only three images at the moment but it clearly shows a well defined LLC.

[fasterdisaster]

Agh, I see it now. I was assuming it was further south and east like yesterday. Yeah, organization's improving and it does look like this could very well develop. Never mind.

[wxman57]

Look near 20.4N/95.4W. I can see an LLC tightening up there just slipping below some heavy convection. Could be upgraded at any time. Hard to see on a still image, the convection is now covering the LLC:

[Ivanhater]

Great day in New Orleans today...Warm front connected to the stalled out front (contributing to this invest) should move back onshore tomorrow...

Looks very suspicious in the BOC today.

[Aric Dunn]

Look near 20.4N/95.5W. I can see an LLC tightening up there just slipping below some heavy convection. Could be upgraded at any time.

Agreed its very close and its quickly organizing..

couple more images... showing increasing banding and convection

[fasterdisaster]

No I see it now guys, and I agree it's very close.

[srainhoutx]

Hi Res Vis Imagery a bit earlier was rather impressive. I agree that it is nearing TD status.

[Shuriken]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

IMO it's already clearly a depression and developing very quickly. Movement is apparently NNE at ~15kt.

Remember Bret; remember Opel....storms starting here don't mess around.

[fasterdisaster]

Mmm I don't think it's a depression quite yet. Convection needs to tighten up a bit.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

IMO it's already clearly a depression and developing very quickly. Movement is apparently NNE at ~15kt.

Remember Bret; remember Opel....storms starting here don't mess around.

yeah its seems to be a drift too the N or just east of north..

[redfish1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

IMO it's already clearly a depression and developing very quickly. Movement is apparently NNE at ~15kt.

Remember Bret; remember Opel....storms starting here don't mess around.

if it is moving NNE could we see a landfall possibly more north than what was expected?

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

IMO it's already clearly a depression and developing very quickly. Movement is apparently NNE at ~15kt.

Remember Bret; remember Opel....storms starting here don't mess around.

if it is moving NNE could we see a landfall possibly more north than what was expected?

yes I posted at the top of this page about that..

[KWT]

I agree I think its getting there but its not quite there yet, probably does need to upped to 80% chance though, and I see no real reason why it can't become Hermine in the next 36-48hrs.