ATL: GASTON - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

Hey Michael(IvanHater),
do you thnk if 98L develops that it has a less chance of recurving like the others in front of it?

[Ivanhater]

Hey Michael(IvanHater),
do you thnk if 98L develops that it has a less chance of recurving like the others in front of it?

I think development will be slow (if at all) so I do think this has a good chance of getting into the Caribbean and not recurving.

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS 96 HOURS

[Wx_Warrior]

Then struggles with it....

OT: but more follow.

[ROCK]

GFS 850mb vort never picks it up....just a hint of rotation but then loses it...at any rate I was looking at the progged BH and how strong it is rather than a surface reflection....looks pretty good to send most anything west....

[South Texas Storms]

rock do you think that this will develop into a tc despite the lack of model support it has?

[boca]

I think this will be a code orange at 2am. It looks good.

[ROCK]

rock do you think that this will develop into a tc despite the lack of model support it has?

yep...maybe in a few days if it keeps this up or maybe tomorrow night.....sure would like to see a SCAT pass...anyone?


models are slow on this one for some reason....CMC is seeing it...ECM never is really that great at development, IMO..especially with the high resolution on the ECM site....UKMET is seeing it...

Now if we can only get that CLIMO model to see it then we can call it a "recurver"....

[fci]

rock do you think that this will develop into a tc despite the lack of model support it has?

yep...maybe in a few days if it keeps this up or maybe tomorrow night.....sure would like to see a SCAT pass...anyone?


models are slow on this one for some reason....CMC is seeing it...ECM never is really that great at development, IMO..especially with the high resolution on the ECM site....UKMET is seeing it...

Now if we can only get that CLIMO model to see it then we can call it a "recurver"....

Rock:
What is climatology telling you about 98L?

[Wx_Warrior]

0z CMC all over it.

[Vortex]

Code orange


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Ivanhater]

UKMET still on it

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.2N 38.8W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2010 14.2N 38.8W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2010 14.7N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2010 15.4N 41.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2010 16.2N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2010 16.5N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2010 17.2N 46.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2010 17.9N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2010 18.8N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[blp]

00z HWRF keeps it alive but weak.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010090100-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Ivanhater]

Getting reports with those who get Euro early

The 0Z Euro has 98-L as a TC at 120 at 11N, 44W moving W.

[blp]

[Ivanhater]

Euro 72 hours

[Vortex]

this system has support now from all models.....

[Vortex]

00z GFDL takes it to hurricane strength at the end of run...Also note after a wnw/nw movement it turns due west as the ridge strengthens towards the end of run.





http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[I-wall]

00z GFS 96 HOURS

Is that 98L at 1012 mb to the NE of SA? Pretty weak.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO 96hrs