ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[cwachal]

what is interesting is that we have not gone a single day since before June without at least one active system in the Atlantic... if that keeps up through November we may very well see that 20+ storm number

[KWT]

Yeah it does have a circulation looking at that map, you can see a fairly broad low and this time round its not really a question of whether this has a LLC, but whether it can get organised better then it is, because its still a long way off yet.

Going to take a while to get the levels stacked up better...but ya never know, if shear eases up like it is currently just starting to do, it has a shot.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE...CONTINUES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[rockyman]

Wow...it's amazing how the low level vortex over the Panhandle has rapidly filled in and has become "sucked into" the developing low pressure off the coast. Watch it on the visible loop:

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[rockyman]

It appears that the new LLC developing off the coast might continue transitioning south, as the MLC has also transitioned south to a point southwest of Tampa.

[HURAKAN]

Tampa Radar ... broad rotation clearly visible

[mvtrucking]

Invest 95 in 48 hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Looking at that, the waves are stacked up one after another.

[tolakram]

Old Windsat. Some turning SW of Tampa

[Stormcenter]

And it begins west of Tampa. It should be interesting to see what evolves, if anything, from this.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[HURAKAN]

Link - ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b ... -12-WV.jpg

Found this image pre-Edouard, 2008. Looks very similar to what we have now.

[Sanibel]

I'm pretty sure that's 94L's remnant that pulled-in off the Atlantic and combined with the energy of that frontal convection.

[tolakram]

From that same server, look how big Alex was: ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b ... GOE-12.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Latest WV

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL 95 2010070218 BEST 0 292N 845W 20 1015 LO

btw, Bertha was upgraded to a depression with a pressure of 1013 mb. So, don't be surprised this system has 1015 mb

[thetruesms]

[img]http://i49.tinypic.com/30w07kk.jpg[img]

Latest WV

Big dive of dry air south behind that front. Good visual to go with Tallahassee's precipitable water dropping from 2.52" at 00Z to 1.88" at 12Z

[wxman57]

Don't need a satellite estimate of wind to find the weak swirl, plenty of obs offshore. Looks like about a 1016mb low in a high-shear and quite hostile environment. I'm still not concerned about this feature, it's just something to keep offshore conditions rough in the clean-up area and produce rain along the mid Gulf Coast this weekend.

[Weatherfreak000]

Don't need a satellite estimate of wind to find the weak swirl, plenty of obs offshore. Looks like about a 1016mb low in a high-shear and quite hostile environment. I'm still not concerned about this feature, it's just something to keep offshore conditions rough in the clean-up area and produce rain along the mid Gulf Coast this weekend.

Indeed.

Wxman57, how do you feel about this system in relation to the fact wind shear is currently at it's strongest anyway right now and it will be on the decrease? Also how do you feel about the strong model agreement?

[chzzdekr81]

If this follows the BAMD model, it would take the same exact path as Tropical Storm Edouard in 2008.

[KWT]

Link - ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b ... -12-WV.jpg

Found this image pre-Edouard, 2008. Looks very similar to what we have now.

Yeah I think that system and Bertha from 2002 are probably the closest matches in modern times to this system...

Doesn't look like its going to develop into anything too potent, mid level feature and low level circulation is still well detached looking at the loops. Unless it improves somewhat I'd be very surprised if recon need to fly into this.

[drezee]

Link - ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b ... -12-WV.jpg

Found this image pre-Edouard, 2008. Looks very similar to what we have now.

Yeah I think that system and Bertha from 2002 are probably the closest matches in modern times to this system...

Doesn't look like its going to develop into anything too potent, mid level feature and low level circulation is still well detached looking at the loops. Unless it improves somewhat I'd be very surprised if recon need to fly into this.

I think beryl in 1994 is the best analog...