EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There is quite a nice upper-high over this system as shown by the nice symmetric fanning of the convection around the broad surface low. This is what you want to see if you are looking for development. SSTs are warm as well. Convection has waned some over the last 6 hours, but certainly a lot of disturbed weather. The NHC code orange is exactly where I would put it at this point as well. If some more convection develops and consolidates some, it could go to code RED, however at this time, I am leaning towards no named system out of this. Main reason is that it seems to have become more disorganized and is slowly going to drift over land limiting its time over water.

[HURAKAN]

Taking shape

[HURAKAN]

Consensus

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

The convection is developing again, let's see if this time it persists for a longer time, and I think that the low will be relocated southeast of the actual location.

[somethingfunny]

Oh my. 90E is really getting into gear now. It can't be long before this is classified. Tropical depression by noon is my guess.

Macrocane, I trust that you have made all your preparations and encouraged your friends, family and neighbors to do the same?

[KWT]

Convection blowing up again with this system, also getting a very good looking circulation with the convection arching around the systems center. Getting a depression look now IMO...code red round the corner.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 27 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL
SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Not all that surprising given the convective burst that developed over the last 12hrs or so, esp as the convection seems to be banding somewhat round the center of the low.

The 0z GFDL very agressive with this one, takes it upto about 75-80kts before landfall, needs to be watched closely, but much depends how long it has over water.

[HURAKAN]

06z

EP, 90, 2010052706, , BEST, 0, 128N, 944W, 25, 1006, DB

[clfenwi]

Still not meriting T numbers from SSD:

27/1145 UTC 12.3N 95.6W TOO WEAK 90E

[cycloneye]

12z Best track,Nearly stationary.

EP, 90, 2010052712, , BEST, 0, 128N, 945W, 25, 1006, LO

[srainhoutx]

I would not be surprised to see a Depression declared later today.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Macrocane]

Oh my. 90E is really getting into gear now. It can't be long before this is classified. Tropical depression by noon is my guess.

Macrocane, I trust that you have made all your preparations and encouraged your friends, family and neighbors to do the same?

Well, I've told my family and my friends that a big rain was very possible and it has been in the news too but unfortunately only the people that live in areas that have experienced disasters in previous events take this news as a serious threat. At this time we're under yellow alert, if it is upgraded to orange people will take it more seriously, let's hope that nothing bad happens but you're right we always need to be prepared.

[cycloneye]

First visible image.

[KWT]

12z Best track,Nearly stationary.

EP, 90, 2010052712, , BEST, 0, 128N, 945W, 25, 1006, LO

Yep just a slight westward drift over the last 6hrs or so, tough call with this one as to how long it continues to drift westwards, the GFDL still has another 24hrs or so of slight drifting before it turns NE.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PHNC 271400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 12.9N 94.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 94.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 94.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING,
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SYSTEM. A 270759Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD LLCC WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 270404Z ASCAT
AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS DEPICTED A DEVELOPING LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER
POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.