ATL : INVEST 90L

[curtadams]

With multiple models forecasting development of a subtropical system and one of the more conservative ones forecasting landfall on the US, this is a total no-brainer for declaring an invest. On top of that, since it's forecast to be an unusual/complicated storm (variable hybrid nature, multiple centers) it's of more scientific interest than usual.

[thetruesms]

Actually, the only "public" which would know what an invest is would be hurricane enthusiasts like those who visit this forum. I deal with thousands of the general public in my talks each spring. Not more than a small handful know what an invest is, and those small few are the "weather nuts". Invests are not broadcast to the public, they're internal (but not hidden). The only "over-excitement" I see when an invest is declared is here on the weather forum. No reason at all to educate the general public about them as they're not being distributed to the public.

There are no development potential criteria to declare an invest, as there would be for a TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert). Should there be? Invests are simply a method that the NHC employs to take a better look at any feature in the tropics, regardless of the development potential. To limit invests would take away a tool that the NHC uses just to gauge potential development and movement.

I disagree somewhat - while it doesn't happen very frequently, I know of people who are only casually interested in the weather who are aware of invests. Especially when the term shows up in a place like Masters' blog, where you get a mix of weather enthusiasts and people who are more casual about following the weather.

But I guess I didn't make my main point clear enough. It's not that the absolute numbers of people who know about invests is high now, but it seems higher to me than in the past. I don't find it too much of a stretch to see in the future a TV personality discuss an invest on the air and send people to their computers trying to figure out what an invest is. It doesn't have to be prominently placed, or highly publicized, just there. Actually, I see that since I last looked at the HRD FAQ, they've updated it to bring it up at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A20.html. I think they could probably rewrite it a little bit because I think the way it is now kind of implies development

Regardless, I don't think that anything about how they use invests whatsoever. That would indeed be a needless limit on a valuable tool.

edit - And I guess that just goes to show how frequently I look at that FAQ page, since I see that question was added last August

[HURAKAN]

12z

[cycloneye]

Things may start cooking from tonight with the formation of the new low.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...COMPLEX BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MEAN
CENTER NEAR 21.5N70W 1011 MB THIS MORNING. A NEW LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF 26N68W
WITH TROUGH TRAILING S-SW TO HISPANIOLA. THIS NEW LOW WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY TOWARD THE NW...REACHING NEAR 29N71W MON
EVENING...NEAR 30N74W TUE EVENING...THEN MOVE N OF THE AREA WED.
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE N AND NE PERIPHERY OF THIS
NEW LOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE
FORCE OVERNIGHT...AND SHIFT NW WITH THE LOW THROUGH WED.

[AJC3]

I disagree somewhat - while it doesn't happen very frequently, I know of people who are only casually interested in the weather who are aware of invests. Especially when the term shows up in a place like Masters' blog, where you get a mix of weather enthusiasts and people who are more casual about following the weather.

But I guess I didn't make my main point clear enough. It's not that the absolute numbers of people who know about invests is high now, but it seems higher to me than in the past. I don't find it too much of a stretch to see in the future a TV personality discuss an invest on the air and send people to their computers trying to figure out what an invest is. It doesn't have to be prominently placed, or highly publicized, just there. Actually, I see that since I last looked at the HRD FAQ, they've updated it to bring it up at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A20.html. I think they could probably rewrite it a little bit because I think the way it is now kind of implies development

Regardless, I don't think that anything about how they use invests whatsoever. That would indeed be a needless limit on a valuable tool.

edit - And I guess that just goes to show how frequently I look at that FAQ page, since I see that question was added last August

I've already seen two of the Orlando TV stations mention "invests" in their weather broadcasts. Of course a TWO, or the now defunct DSA (Special Tropical Disturbance Statement) may or may not have already been issued in those instances, so there is at least a trickle of this type of information going out to the general public, in addition to what gets out via forums and the blogosphere.

I think it behooves those relaying the information to both adequately understand and explain what an Invest is and what it is not.

[AdamFirst]

I think most TV meteorologists acknowledge these invests, but they say like "waves" or "disturbances"...if we're talking primarily a names thing.

My local met acknowledged it this morning as a "wave"

[KWT]

Whilst people may not know what an invest means, I'm sure weather channels and forecasts will pick up the fact that an invest is about and whilst they may not talk about it as a 'invest' I'm sure they will mention it anyway...

Still we have obvious turning of the low, old convection being sheared away to the east whilst some very shallow convection developing around the low but conditions must be very marginal for warm cored development given just how shallow and weak the convection is around the system.

Still perhaps just the first hints that something is occuring.

[HURAKAN]

Nothing going on now

[artist]

it's actually beginning to look a little better to these amateur eyes -
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[KWT]

The circulation isn't too bad at the moment though its clearly not a closed low just yet...another issue is that its only really creating 'pop corn' convection at the moment, until wither the upper cold pool strengthens or the system can get into somewhat warmer waters and the lapse rates increase that way.

Still it has a shot thats for sure over the next few days IMO;

[wxman57]

Diminishing convection in a high-shear environment today. It'll eventually form a low center, but probably not much more than a gale center that stays offshore. Could cause some gusty wind along the East Coast toward the middle of next week, but not too strong compared to all the winter storms they get there.

[KWT]

Yeah I'd agree with that Wxman57, it'll probably be the type of system that the NHC could well end up upgrading but its going to be one of those classic early season messes.

[Blown Away]

Why hasn't the NHC put a code yellow on this area?

[JonathanBelles]

Why hasn't the NHC put a code yellow on this area?

TWO's arent being issued in the off season.

[wxman57]

Why hasn't the NHC put a code yellow on this area?

TWO's arent being issued in the off season.

I believe that they would issue an outlook out of season if they thought there was imminent development potential.

[HURAKAN]

TAFB 72 hours

[HURAKAN]

Latest 850 mb vorticity

[fci]

Every year the "why did they declare it an invest" debate ensues. It is like clockwork! Some of you get all hot and bothered like an invest is such big deal; which it isn't. Having said that, they don't toil in anonymity anymore either given the Internet and myriad of sites that identify and/or talk about them.

[ronjon]

Broad surface low now forming near 25N-69W. Look for it to get better organized today as wind shear drops off toward the NW. Sea surface temps still marginal the next day or so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rb.html

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

AL, 90, 2010052312, , BEST, 0, 245N, 700W, 25, 1007, LO