GOC: EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (22P) - Final Advisory

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Monday 29 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities west to Maningrida
and south to Port McArthur.

At 9:30 pm CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 2 was estimated to be 70
kilometres northwest of Alyangula and 160 kilometres south southwest of
Nhulunbuy, moving west southwest at 4 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is crossing the coast just south of Cape Shield. During Tuesday it
is expected to weaken as it remains over land. Late Wednesday it is likely the
cyclone will move back into Gulf of Carpentaria where it may reintensify.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are likely on the coast
near Cape Shield as the cyclone moves inland.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt. GALES may extend
north to Elcho Island and west to Milingimbi during Tuesday if the cyclone takes
a more northerly track. GALES are likely to extend south to Port McArthur or
possibly west to Maningrida late Wednesday, depending on the cyclone's future
movement.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to
rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING tonight and Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises over the
eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur Districts tonight and Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.4 degrees South 136.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 982 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Tuesday 30 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 65 knots

[HURAKAN]

Retains a very small eye

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 1:53 am CST Tuesday 30 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities west to Maningrida
and south to Port McArthur.

At 12:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 2 was estimated to be 110
kilometres northwest of Alyangula and 165 kilometres southwest of Nhulunbuy,
moving west at 6 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone has crossed the coast just south of Cape Shield, and is moving
slowly inland. It is expected to remain over land today and weaken below cyclone
intensity. Late Wednesday it is likely the cyclone will move back into Gulf of
Carpentaria where it is expected to reintensify.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour near the centre of the
cyclone will gradually ease as the cyclone moves further inland.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar and adjacent inland, and also Groote Eylandt.
GALES may extend north to Elcho Island and west to Milingimbi today if the
cyclone takes a more northerly track. GALES are likely to extend south to Port
McArthur or possibly west to Maningrida late Wednesday, depending on the
cyclone's future movement.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER. Tides are likely to
rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS
FLOODING today.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to localised flooding and significant stream rises over the
eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur Districts today.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 12:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 135.7 degrees East [over land]
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 985 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Tuesday 30 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[KWT]

Its quite impressive how long its taken to finally reach land, it really has been crawling along the coast and has refused to go inland, looks like finally is going to get inland now though.

[HURAKAN]

Still very impressive over land

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 25
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Tuesday 30 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities west to Maningrida
and south to Port McArthur.

At 3:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 2 was estimated to be 120
kilometres northwest of Alyangula and 155 kilometres southwest of Nhulunbuy,
moving west northwest at 5 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is currently over land west of Cape Shield, and is expected to
weaken below cyclone intensity as it moves further inland. The system may move
back into Gulf of Carpentaria late Wednesday or early Thursday and reintensify.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour near the centre of the
cyclone will gradually ease as the cyclone moves further inland.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between Elcho Island and Numbulwar and adjacent inland areas, and also Groote
Eylandt. GALES may extend west to Milingimbi today if the cyclone takes a more
northerly track. GALES may extend south to Port McArthur or west to Maningrida
late Wednesday, depending on the cyclone's future movement.

A STORM TIDE is expected between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER, including GROOTE
EYLANDT. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with
DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING today.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low lying areas
over the Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur districts today.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.1 degrees South 135.7 degrees East [over land]
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 985 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am CST Tuesday 30 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1929 UTC 29/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Paul
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.1S
Longitude: 135.7E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [294 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T/4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm [315 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/0600: 13.0S 135.2E: 045 [085]: 035 [065]: 997
+24: 30/1800: 13.2S 135.0E: 075 [140]: 030 [055]: 1000
+36: 31/0600: 13.4S 135.3E: 110 [200]: 030 [055]: 1000
+48: 31/1800: 13.8S 136.3E: 140 [260]: 035 [065]: 998
+60: 01/0600: 14.1S 136.8E: 190 [345]: 040 [075]: 994
+72: 01/1800: 14.5S 136.8E: 235 [435]: 050 [095]: 988
REMARKS:
The cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical low as it moves further inland
today. On Wednesday the influence of a passing short wave trough to the south
should weaken the middle-level ridge, and the low may move eastwards over Gulf
waters again late Wednesday, with rapid intensification possible. However some
models indicate the ridge will not be completely eroded and the system will
remain over land. Alternatively if the system weakens sufficiently quickly then
the lower level steering winds will move it westwards.

DT=4.0 based on a 1.1 spiral wrap. MET is 4.0 and PAT agrees so FT and CI is set
at 4.0. Recent images from Gove radar suggests the low level circulation is
beginning to weaken, however this is not yet evident on satellite imagery.

The broadscale environment remains favourable, with low vertical wind shear and
good upper level outflow in sectors from NW through E to SW of the system.
Slower than usual weakening over land is expected due to the strong upper
support.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 135.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 135.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.3S 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.4S 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.6S 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.9S 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.5S 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 135.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
RADAR LOOP FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA, SHOW WEAKENING CONVECTION AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291640Z AMSRE MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, PREVIOUSLY APPARENT
IN THE 290832Z SSMI IMAGE, HAS ERODED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SYSTEM
MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE AMSRE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT,
AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM ADRM (65 KNOTS) AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IN IR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR LOOP FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA. TC 22P IS
CURRENTLY QUASISTATIONARY OVER LAND IN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 48. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 TC
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD, AS THE NER
STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHEAST, AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM CONTINES TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, TC PAUL COULD
REGENERATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND NOGAPS,
WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO THE STR. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REPRESENTS A CHANGE IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY AND FAVORS A TRACK EAST OF
CONSENSUS, TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE OUTLIERS, AT SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK
SPEEDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 26
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST Tuesday 30 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities west to Maningrida
and south to Port McArthur.

At 6:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 2 was estimated to be 130
kilometres northwest of Alyangula and 170 kilometres southwest of Nhulunbuy,
moving west northwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is currently over land west of Cape Shield, and is expected to
weaken below cyclone intensity as it moves further inland. The system may move
back into the Gulf of Carpentaria late Wednesday or early Thursday and
reintensify.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour near the centre of the
cyclone will ease during the morning as the cyclone moves further inland.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between Elcho Island and Numbulwar and adjacent inland areas. GALES near Groote
Eylandt should ease during the morning. GALES may extend west to Milingimbi
today if the cyclone takes a more northerly track. GALES may extend south to
Port McArthur or west to Maningrida late Wednesday, depending on the cyclone's
future movement.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER, including
GROOTE EYLANDT. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal
areas.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low lying areas
over the Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur districts today.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 6:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.1 degrees South 135.6 degrees East [over land]
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 986 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Tuesday 30 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Tuesday 30 March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Milingimbi
to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities west to Maningrida
and south to Port McArthur.

At 9:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Paul, Category 1 was estimated to be 135
kilometres west northwest of Alyangula and 205 kilometres southwest of
Nhulunbuy, moving west at 5 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is currently over land west of Cape Shield, and is expected to
weaken below cyclone intensity as it moves further inland. The system may move
back into the Gulf of Carpentaria early Thursday where it may reintensify.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between Milingimbi and Numbulwar and adjacent inland areas. GALES near Groote
Eylandt should ease during the next few hours. GALES may extend south to Port
McArthur or west to Maningrida early Thursday, depending on the cyclone's future
movement.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between CAPE SHIELD and PORT ROPER, including
GROOTE EYLANDT. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal
areas.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low lying areas
over the Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts today.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Paul at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.3 degrees South 135.3 degrees East [over land]
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Tuesday 30 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0149 UTC 30/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Paul
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.3S
Longitude: 135.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: D3.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/1200: 13.6S 134.9E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 31/0000: 13.9S 135.0E: 080 [150]: 030 [055]: 998
+36: 31/1200: 14.1S 135.5E: 110 [210]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 01/0000: 14.6S 136.4E: 145 [270]: 040 [075]: 993
+60: 01/1200: 14.8S 136.7E: 190 [355]: 050 [095]: 986
+72: 02/0000: 15.1S 136.7E: 240 [445]: 055 [100]: 982
REMARKS:
The cyclone has continued to move slowly inland and weaken. Remnant eyewall
segments are still evident on Gove radar, although very weak. Cloud tops have
warmed in tightly wrapped spiral bands near the centre, colder cloud bands are
restricted to the eastern semicircle.

Dvorak DT=4.0 based on a 1.2 spiral wrap, but FT based on MET=PAT=3.5, due to
warm cloud tops. CI decreased to 3.0. TC Paul is forecast to weaken into a
tropical low over Arnhemland within the next 6 hours, but is expected to retain
a well-developed cloud structure and circulation.

A passing short wave trough is forecast to steer the low back over Gulf waters
early on Thursday. As the broadscale environment remains favourable, rapid
redevelopment of a cyclone is possible. However there is large variance in model
track forecasts, including an alternative scenario of gradual weakening over
land with further westward movement.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest - Land doing some damage

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST Tuesday 30 March 2010

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities Nhulunbuy to
the NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt.

The Cyclone WARNING from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy has been cancelled. The cyclone
WARNING from Nhulunbuy to Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt, has been
downgraded to a cyclone WATCH.

At 3:30 pm CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul was estimated to be 160 kilometres west
northwest of Alyangula and 215 kilometres west southwest of Nhulunbuy, and was
slow moving.

The cyclone has weakened into a deep tropical low over Arnhem Land and is
expected to remain slow moving tonight and early on Wednesday. There is a
possibility that the low could move back into the Gulf of Carpentaria during
Thursday where it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop around the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Thursday if a
tropical cyclone redevelops.

A Severe Weather Warning has been issued for damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall
and large waves in the Arnhem, Roper-McArthur and Darwin-Daly Districts.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul at 3:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 135.1 degrees East [over land]
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Tuesday 30 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 13.2S 135.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 135.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.5S 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.0S 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.5S 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 135.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE RADAR LOOP FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA, CONTINUE TO SHOW MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. TC 22P
HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR ALMOST 18 HOURS AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
COMBINED WITH WANING POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAVE HELPED TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO 40 KNOTS. TC PAUL IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MAKE A POLEWARD TURN OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK BACK OUT OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND
REGENERATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

[tropicana]

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Tuesday 30 March 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities Nhulunbuy to the
NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt.

At 9:30 pm CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul was estimated to be 180 kilometres west
northwest of Alyangula and 235 kilometres west southwest of Nhulunbuy, and was
slow moving.

Ex-cyclone Paul has weakened into a deep tropical low over Arnhem Land and is
expected to remain slow moving tonight and early on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is
expected in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts overnight and during
Wednesday.

There is a possibility that the low could move back into the Gulf of Carpentaria
during Thursday where it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop around the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Thursday if
the low redevelops into a tropical cyclone.

A Severe Weather Warning has been issued for damaging wind gusts and heavy
rainfall in the Arnhem, Roper-McArthur and Darwin-Daly Districts.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul at 9:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 134.9 degrees East [over land]
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Wednesday 31 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

[HURAKAN]

Latest