SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM GELANE (16S)

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NR - 125 knots

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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2010 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 17:28:05 S Lon : 62:05:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 916.0mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.5 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.5C Cloud Region Temp : -78.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.4S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.4S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.3S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.3S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.9S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 23.5S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.9S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 62.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SMALL, APPROXIMATELY 120-150 NM DIAMETER SYSTEM, WITH
A SMALL 8-NM ROUND EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AS WELL AS THE 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TURNING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A
RELATIVELY SLOW TRACK SPEED OF 05-06 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE MAJORITY OF AIDS SUPPORTING THIS
TRACK TO INCLUDE GFDN, ECMWF, WBAR, AND NOGAPS. THE UKMET
AND GFS TRACKERS REMAIN OUTLIERS AND APPEAR TO BE ERRONEOUS.
THE UKMET, WHICH INDICATES A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD CENTRAL
MADAGASCAR, TRACKS THE SYSTEM INTO WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER MADAGASCAR. THE GFS TRACKS THE
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE STR. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY FASTER AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, WITH GFS AND UKMET OFF-SETTING
EACH OTHER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
NNNN

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ZCZC 658
WTIO30 FMEE 191248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/12/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/19 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4S / 62.1E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/20 00 UTC: 18.5S/61.9E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.
24H: 2010/02/20 12 UTC: 19.5S/61.5E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.
36H: 2010/02/21 00 UTC: 20.3S/60.8E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/02/21 12 UTC: 21.1S/59.9E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/02/22 00 UTC: 21.8S/58.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/02/22 12 UTC: 22.3S/57.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=6.5- AND CI=6.5
GELANE KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING.
AT THIS STAGE, IT UNDERGOES THE NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW IN
RELATIONSHIP
WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN ITS NORTHEAST (REFER TO 400 HPA
WIND
FIELD FROM ECMWF NWP).
AS THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS,
IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTED WINDSHEAR AND SHOULD
THERFORE NOT WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY.
ON AND AFTER SATURDAY AT 12Z, WINDSHEAR SHOULD BECOME STRONGER AND
STRONGER IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE (MIDGET), GELANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AND
TO UNDERGO
THE STEERING FLOW OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
EUROPEAN NWP MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE AMERICAN ONES. THE RECURVING
MOVMENT IS EARLIER FOR THE FIRST GROUP.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THIS TWO OPTIONS , CLOSER
TO
THE AMERICAN NWP'S AT SHORT RANGE (MORE REALISTIC WITH THE PRESENT
INTENSITY).
FORECAST POSITIONS BEYOND TAU 72H:
096H: 2010/02/23 12 UTC: 23.0S/55.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROPICAL DIST.
120H: 2010/02/24 12 UTC: 23.3S/50.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROPICAL DIST.=
NNNN

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Latest

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WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 62.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 62.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.9S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.0S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.9S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.0S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.5S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.8S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.9S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 61.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.
//
NNNN

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Latest

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ZCZC 355
WTIO30 FMEE 200056
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/12/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/20 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 61.7E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/20 12 UTC: 19.8S/61.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/02/21 00 UTC: 20.8S/60.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2010/02/21 12 UTC: 21.7S/60.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/02/22 00 UTC: 22.8S/59.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2010/02/22 12 UTC: 24.0S/57.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2010/02/23 00 UTC: 25.0S/56.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- AND CI=5.5
GELANE KEEPS WEAKENING.
ACCORDING TO THE LAST SATELLITE ANIMATED IMAGERY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW
HAS
DISAPPEARED.
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY
WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
CONSEQUENTLY,
GELANE WHICH IS A SMALL SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AT
THE
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE UP TO 24TAU.
STEERING FLOW IS STILL A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM,
BUT SHOULD BECOME AT 48TAU A LOWER LEVELS RIDGE IN ITS EAST. SO
GELANE
IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE REGULARLY SOUTH-WESTWARD. AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST RANGE, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE REBOUILDING
SOUTHWARD,
SYSTEM SHOULD
TRACK WESTWARD.
FORECAST POSITIONS BEYOND TAU 72H:
096H: 2010/02/24 00 UTC: 25.3S/53.2E, MAX WIND=30KT, TROPICAL DEP.
120H: 2010/02/25 00 UTC: 25.0S/50.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROPICAL DEP.=
NNNN

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Latest

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WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.3S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.3S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.3S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.2S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.7S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.8S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.3S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 61.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. GELANE HAS WEAKENED AN ADDITIONAL 10 KNOTS
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EYE HAS BECOME IRREGULAR AND CLOUD-
FILLED, HOWEVER TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IS STILL EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND HAS HELPED WITH IDENTIFYING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED ON THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW INDICATE A 90 TO 115
KNOT SYSTEM, HOWEVER FIXES FROM FMEE ESTIMATE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
BE AS WEAK AS 80 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTWESTWARD ALONG THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED VENTING ALOFT. ONCE THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS TO ABOUT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, NEAR TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK PROGRESSIVELY WESTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED NEAR
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, ECMWF AND EGRR CONTINUE TO
INITIALIZE A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE AND PREMATURELY DRIVE THE SYSTEM
WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 19.4S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.5S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.7S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.7S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.7S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.0S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.9S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS LOOSELY
BASED ON A BROAD RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OFFERED BY KNES (65-90
KNOTS), PGTW (77-102 KNOTS) AND FMEE (55-65 KNOTS). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE FROM A 200919Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS CUT OFF GELANE'S OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO
THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE LOW FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS WARNING MESSAGES THOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 96. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS THOUGH THE ECMWF, GFS, AND WBAR SOLUTIONS
HINT AT A POLEWARD TURN TOWARDS THE EXTENDED TAU'S. INSTEAD, THIS
FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE WESTWARD TURN AS THE DRASTICALLY-WEAKENED
SYSTEM STARTS TO TURN WITH THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 19.4S 61.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 61.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.5S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.7S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.7S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.7S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.0S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.9S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS LOOSELY
BASED ON A BROAD RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OFFERED BY KNES (65-90
KNOTS), PGTW (77-102 KNOTS) AND FMEE (55-65 KNOTS). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE FROM A 200919Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS CUT OFF GELANE'S OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO
THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE LOW FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS WARNING MESSAGES THOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 96. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS THOUGH THE ECMWF, GFS, AND WBAR SOLUTIONS
HINT AT A POLEWARD TURN TOWARDS THE EXTENDED TAU'S. INSTEAD, THIS
FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE WESTWARD TURN AS THE DRASTICALLY-WEAKENED
SYSTEM STARTS TO TURN WITH THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

Meteo France have it down to an FTT/ STS now.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 863
WTIO20 FMEE 201224
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/02/2010
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/02/2010 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (GELANE) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1S / 61.4E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE ,
EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE .
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM
RADIUS
OF THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS
OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER , EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT, 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND 110 NM IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2010/02/21 AT 00 UTC:
19.7S / 60.9E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2010/02/21 AT 12 UTC:
20.4S / 59.9E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE REGULARLY
SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 61.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.8S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.8S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.8S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.7S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.6S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 61.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
STEADILY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GREATER WEAKENING OCCURRING
AT THE LATER FORECAST TAUS. MORE RECENTLY A MICROWAVE EYE HAS FORMED
(202120Z AMSRE), COINCIDING WITH THE FILLING OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND A RELAXATION OF PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. REGARDLESS THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEGRADE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE ARE ALSO INHIBITING EQUATORWARD VENTING AND ADVERSELY
AFFECTING THE SYMMETRY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF THE
MICROWAVE EYE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE
STEADYING AROUND 65 KNOTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BENEFIT
FROM AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS INCREASE IN OUTFLOW SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN
A 60 KNOT CIRCULATION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS LONG AS VWS DOES NOT
ELEVATE TOO QUICKLY. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN INTERPOLATED FROM
THE ABOVE AMSRE IMAGE WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE FORECAST
TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. AS THE STORM WEAKENS DUE TO
ELEVATED VWS IT WILL SHALLOW AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SUBJECT TO THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES THAT WILL TREND THE SYSTEM WEST OVER TIME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 222
WTIO30 FMEE 211217
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/12/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/21 AT 1200 UTC :
20.7S / 61.3E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 2.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/22 00 UTC: 21.1S/60.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/02/22 12 UTC: 21.7S/59.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2010/02/23 00 UTC: 22.8S/57.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2010/02/23 12 UTC: 24.1S/56.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/02/24 00 UTC: 24.7S/55.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/02/24 12 UTC: 24.9S/54.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 AND CI=2.5+.
DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CONVECTION HAS
LITERRALY BEEN BLOWN AWAY DURING THE MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS COMPLETLY EXPOSED FAR FROM THE RESIDUAL
CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED VERY RAPIDLY DUE TO ITS LITTLE SIZE, AND
INVASION
OF DRY AIR IN THE NORTH EAST (AQUA VAPOR 09H31Z).
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY GENERALLY WESTARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO
RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
LITTLE RIDGE IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN
ON
24TH IT IS FORECA
ST TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE EVACUATE SOUTHWESTWARDS AHEAD OF A TROUGH AT
THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS BEYOND TAU 72H:
096H: 2010/02/25 12 UTC: 25.4S/53.2E, MAX WIND=20KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
120H: 2010/02/26 12 UTC: DISSIPATING.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Adiós