ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[thetruesms]

no worries...I know you were poking fun.... but I can tell you other METS on here have not even mentioned the EURO and it was only today the local AFD did as did Masters.....just find it curious...

phew, I always get a little nervous because I've had jokes not go over well before, but I can't make myself stop!

I really think the distribution restrictions make a big deal. I know I don't speak for all mets, but I like the best resolution I can get, with contouring that makes sense. And because of how difficult it is to get the Euro if you don't have the resources to pay for it, there isn't very much of that out there. I try to do the best I can with what's available to me, but I frequently don't feel like I understand what the model is doing as well as I do more freely available models. And I don't like to talk about things I may not have down perfectly right It is a very good model, though, and it is being used by those who really need to have it.

[TwisterFanatic]

12z CMC....uh what is following 97L...a twin...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That is very interesting....

[ROCK]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation


NOGAPS 12z...nothing but a weak surface reflection into Texas.....


shows how much I have been online....I posted the 12z but the 0z is out.....consistant runs then...back to back....big time shifts in the am....wait it is the morning...

[clfenwi]

00Z NOGAPS 108h



Full loop

[ROCK]

no worries...I know you were poking fun.... but I can tell you other METS on here have not even mentioned the EURO and it was only today the local AFD did as did Masters.....just find it curious...

phew, I always get a little nervous because I've had jokes not go over well before, but I can't make myself stop!

I really think the distribution restrictions make a big deal. I know I don't speak for all mets, but I like the best resolution I can get, with contouring that makes sense. And because of how difficult it is to get the Euro if you don't have the resources to pay for it, there isn't very much of that out there. I try to do the best I can with what's available to me, but I frequently don't feel like I understand what the model is doing as well as I do more freely available models. And I don't like to talk about things I may not have down perfectly right It is a very good model, though, and it is being used by those who really need to have it.

I hate the resolution at the ECMWF site also.... PSU site does a liitle better job...IMO...

I tend to go out on a limb and go against the grain at times.....probably more wrong than right...but when I see a outlier model suggesting something totally against all other dynamics I jump on board. Especially if its the ECM....Ike made me a believer......

[clfenwi]

00Z Canadian is further up the coast (compared to NOGAPS) , but also shows a low at Texas at 108h

[ROCK]

well the trend is way west tonight.....not staying up for the EURO...ugh....

[clfenwi]

00Z HWRF

complete loop

[ROCK]

man talk about a swing...from the east coast of FL all the way to NO....nice...

GFDL will follow suite I am sure....

[southerngale]

well the trend is way west tonight.....not staying up for the EURO...ugh....

Sure you're not. All these west shifts... you know you'll be up. Current model trends... a rainshower is coming. We might get a few inches of rain and some twigs blown around.


However, last night was much different than tonight. Who knows what tomorrow will bring?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

For some reason...models tend to underestimate the ridge...so let's look at this ridge

The important thing here is that the ridge appears strong based on pressure
gradient...so I think 97L will go further south and west than currently projected...
This means I won't get much of any impacts from it here in central FL
But this is an unprofessional opinion so don't make life/death decisions based
on it
In any case once it is in the gulf...I expect the projected paths to shift further west,
probably significantly further west owing to earlier model runs likely over-amplifying
trough features (resulting in the initial path to the NE gulf for a gulf "landfall")
If I had to guess I would say Central/West Gulf for final landfall...
(and no I'm not just Wishing this away from me )

[ROCK]

well the trend is way west tonight.....not staying up for the EURO...ugh....

Sure you're not. All these west shifts... you know you'll be up. Current model trends... a rainshower is coming. We might get a few inches of rain and some twigs blown around.


However, last night was much different than tonight. Who knows what tomorrow will bring?

Ivan told me I could go to bed early tonight since he's out on the town.....

Well the CMC, NOGAPS, GFS have all decided to follow the EURO...so its a safe bet the EURO will produce the same tonight....Watch the ECM blow up 97L and shift all the way to the right tonight.....

[xcool22]

ROCK not so fast lol

[clfenwi]

GFDL loses the vortex after 42h after the storm runs into Cuba. Loop alternate loop

[ROCK]

GFDL loses the vortex after 42h after the storm runs into Cuba. Loop alternate loop

GFDL and HWRF are now the right outliers....they have been pretty much the whole time....

[Wx_Warrior]

Not much to see on EURO.

[chzzdekr81]

[lebron23]

another shift west most models nearing TX border
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_97.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

Interesting that most models are trending west now...(Cough, EURO, Cough)

[KWT]

Yeah its because the system is weaker, though worth noting the ECM only recently shifted westwards itsefl (It was showing a LA hit orginally)

Year of the Texas/Mexico storm thus far for sure, 1936 reduex!