ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

If I had to guess, I'd say Morgan City, LA to AL border...

likely much farther east since the east side is where all the winds will be... would probably go into parts of the Fl panhandle..

[brunota2003]

Looking at the observations, the strongest winds I see in the area were 18 knots, and none of the areas had reported higher winds at all today (excluding one ob of 19 knot winds at like 3 am). I noticed the lowest pressure on any of the buoys was 1009 millibars (29.80 inches), with a 9 knot wind. It seems the strongest winds actually decreased from yesterday, and overall, the winds are 20 knots max.

[ROCK]

1008.4 mb, RECON

Its bombing!!!

[TexWx]

Appears that Texas seems to be out of running...

I just need some rain

[Air Force Met]

Down to 1008.9 mbs now via recon

These pressure falls are due to dirunal changes. The pressure this morning was near 1007-1008 (closer to 1008). It went up during the DMAX to 1010...and now its on its way back down again.

It's not deepening.

[lester]

1008.4 mb, RECON

Its bombing!!!

It's stronger than bonnie! XD

[ldelatorre]

I got a 27mph wind gust at 2:20PM EDT here in Largo, FL.

[PTrackerLA]

I'd say Intracoastal City, La - Panama City, FL for possible watches/warnings. We'll see!

[ROCK]

[Stormcenter]

That's not saying much.

1008.4 mb, RECON

Its bombing!!!

It's stronger than bonnie! XD

[gatorcane]

TAFB:

That would be my forecast also

[Aric Dunn]

Thats true... But I guess my point was its not well defined enough for upgrade its clearly broad and elongated ... well who knows what they will do like you said earlier 93L may need a apology.. lol

I agree. To me its not well defined enough to upgrade. Its close and is certainly closer than it was this morning.

The convection is decreasing south of the LLC and although convection around the LLC is increasing...its still scattered. BUT...I gave up trying to figure out what the NHC was going to do a long time ago. I do feel fairly confident in this prediction though: This WILL be upgraded at some point. Whether its today or tomorrow...only time will tell. WHEN it gets upgraded really won't change the facts of what we have and won't change what they are going to forecast: A moderate-strong (50-60) TS into central-SE LA. That is my best guess on what their initial forecast will be...unless they hold off and something changes between now and tomorrow.

That is reasonable and there really is not much data that would suggest any major variations in track except maybe a more NW motion initially once the LLC consolidates and it rotates northerly. as for strength 50 to 60 is also very reasonable but you cant rule out minimal Hurricane especially if its a little slower. It does not take much to go from 50 to 60 to a hurricane.

[tigergirl]

This just sucks for us here in Lafourche Parish, we just started school again last Friday. Hoping this ends up fizzing out!

[HouTXmetro]

MLC weakening and moving North, LLC moving SW (could be an eddy) but best tracks puts the motion at WNW...what gives?

[Dean4Storms]

Watches prolly from Destin to Morgan City.

[CaneCurious]

This thing is going to creep up on us. I have a feeling it is going to ramp up quickly starting tomorrow and we are going to be caught off guard. I will never forget Cindy of 2005. We went to bed with our local met saying that there was nothing to worry about because the NOLA metro area wouldn't feel hardly any effects of the weak tropical storm. Well that was BULL! My husband woke us up in the middle of the night to a memorable Hurricane outside. We had downed trees and no power for 3 days after that storm. Cindy went from a weak tropical storm to a strong Cat 1 quickly with no real estate to spare. I have that same feeling with this one.

[Air Force Met]

That is reasonable and there really is not much data that would suggest any major variations in track except maybe a more NW motion initially once the LLC consolidates and it rotates northerly. as for strength 50 to 60 is also very reasonable but you cant rule out minimal Hurricane especially if its a little slower. It does not take much to go from 50 to 60 to a hurricane.

Oh...I agree...I think it has a decent chance at cat 1...I'm just making a guess at what their forecast will be.

[Aric Dunn]

Watches prolly from Destin to Morgan City.

This is likely what it will look like simply because all the TS force winds that might occur will be on the east side so watches and warnings will be needed farther east. the west side will be weak.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at the way things stand "now" 94L like his cousin Bonnie is having a hard time really getting it's act together even though it looks much better then it ever has. The conditions even though better then yesterday still remain hostile. I still think it has a good chance to reach TS strength. IMO

[Comanche]

what time is this mess going to make landfall, (estimated of course).