ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

Is our friend gaining vision?

[ColinDelia]

[Gustywind]

(V)Igor on the screen hopefully well east of the Lesser Antilles

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121134
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1230 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED
BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR AT 12/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 44.4W.
IGOR IS MOVING WESTWARD 16 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 990 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAIN-
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 42W AND
48W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 30S AND 47W...AND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

[HURAKAN]

that's not a category 1 hurricane

[cyclonic chronic]

i agree, the pressure has got to be alot lower than 992mb. im thinking 975-980mb range.

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 11, 2010091212, , BEST, 0, 177N, 449W, 85, 975, HU

Cat 2 at 11.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[TheBurn]

[HURAKAN]

Once the eye clears inside, it's a category 3. Looks beautiful

[Macrocane]

This is at least a 95 kt hurricane, look how solid the eyewall looks on the microwave.

[abajan]

Going by the 5 AM forecast discussion, Igor’s strength is now about 30 hours ahead of schedule. Seems to me this is a good candidate to reach the upper end of Cat4 or even a minimal Cat5 at some point. It looks so well developed that I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a major cane by the 11 AM update.

This season’s ACE is about to go through the roof!

[HURAKAN]

Igor is a small hurricane but very powerful

[gatorcane]

I'm not sure I understand the slight west bend at the end of the forecast track. The only thing I can think of is that they are putting some weight on the ecmwf and ukmet which seem to bring igor more west than the other models

[abajan]

I'm not sure I understand the slight west bend at the end of the forecast track. The only thing I can think of is that they are putting some weight on the ecmwf and ukmet which seem to bring igor more west than the other models

I’m kinda curious about it too. Could it be that the line was drawn that way to compensate for the curvature of the Earth?

[KWT]

Amazing looking storm right now , no doubt Igor is undergoing RI, the eye has cleared out totally in the last 6hrs and now looks like a strong hurricane. No doubts in my mind this goes to 125-130kts.

ACE is going to explode now as someone said...

[abajan]

(V)Igor on the screen hopefully well east of the Lesser Antilles
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Even if it passes as far away as presently forecast, it’s gonna generate some serious swells in this region. As a matter of fact, I fully expect that in addition to the Lesser Antilles, the surf will be up big time along the entire eastern seaboard, The Bahamas and Bermuda.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

Definitely RI'ing at a good clip now. I would say about 90-95 kt right now.