ATL: EARL - Models
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models
Wow, if that comes to fruition watch out. Will be interesting to see if models start to show a bend back to the west over the next couple of days to come into agreement of the high building in.
Michael, how good is the NAM at forecasting upper level patterns?
Michael, how good is the NAM at forecasting upper level patterns?
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Wow, if that comes to fruition watch out. Will be interesting to see if models start to show a bend back to the west over the next couple of days to come into agreement of the high building in.
Michael, how good is the NAM at forecasting upper level patterns?
Horrible at tropical cyclone forecasting, but from what I understand, not bad with the 500mb pattern.
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Michael
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Fego
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Well the stronger and the later this one turns to the NW (though hopefully it gains some latitude) the better for everyone because the pattern simply is not condusive to a landfall threat in the upper levels, its going to get close then Danielle for sure BUT it will prevent Fiona...the TRUE risk from getting closer if this one can take its time to lift out to the NW once its to the north of the Caribbean Islands.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models
Ivanhater wrote:Can't tell if it hit one of the Islands..but really close
That looks like a direct hit to my untrained eyes. Either way, that is the closest run to the Islands so far I believe.
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Evil Jeremy
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Nah ts just to the north on the Vort map..in fact the Vort map sows the center of circulation would probably be a good 100 miles to the NE of the Islands on this run.
I think the GFS may have got it right with the evolution of Earl's track, which is bad news for the Islands....good news for the chance of Fiona doing what it does on the CMC/ECM.
I think the GFS may have got it right with the evolution of Earl's track, which is bad news for the Islands....good news for the chance of Fiona doing what it does on the CMC/ECM.
Last edited by KWT on Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: EARL - Models
Evil Jeremy wrote:Ivanhater wrote:Can't tell if it hit one of the Islands..but really close
That looks like a direct hit to my untrained eyes. Either way, that is the closest run to the Islands so far I believe.
here it is blown up-
Last edited by artist on Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models
Can't tell if it hit one of the Islands..but really close
Ivan,that most northern island is Barbuda which is north of Antigua.Both are hit.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Its still way to close for my liking even if it is a little to the north of the Islands...in other words its in wobbling range so to speak!
ps, troughing weaker on the 18z from the looks of things, going to be a tighter call in terms of E.coast threat then the 12z GFS run was...
ps, troughing weaker on the 18z from the looks of things, going to be a tighter call in terms of E.coast threat then the 12z GFS run was...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: EARL - Models
ok, I blew it up even further -
click it to see the islands it is hitting. Sorry I don't know which they are. Someone help me here.
click it to see the islands it is hitting. Sorry I don't know which they are. Someone help me here.
Last edited by artist on Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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