ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

Lets see, yesterday just about every met said fish. Most posters were saying fish. Today, most models have shifted quite a bit west. Most still as a fish, but I don't care for the trend. Euro is the most disturbing with a 940 hurricane. GFS has always had a right bias, Euro a left bias, and of course there is the Bastardi east coast bias.

Me, I am going to wait and see.

Btw, amazing to see that are still a lot of season over postings still out there.

If only that were true

[gatorcane]

NOGAPS and HWRF are also showing something similar to the EURO.

[ROCK]

TD6 just got decapitated by the feature to the NE.....unbelievable.....it went the way of Chris in 06....where in the hell is that LLC going? ..never seen anything like it....

edit- might make a loop around...but still....sheesh


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Blown Away]

Latest

Looking at the visible loop that exposed LLC is moving NW and the convection envelope appears to be moving W? TD6 looks like it's weakening and not moving more W like we would expect with a weaker/shallower system??

[ROCK]

I see why now....got some big time shear right now....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[ROCK]

dry and stable air...hmmmm.....subsidence to the north....now where have I heard that before....

[Javlin]

Looks due N @34' can we say decouplation(is that word) has taken place goofy goofy season

[hurricaneCW]

dry and stable air...hmmmm.....subsidence to the north....now where have I heard that before....

It could still strengthen as long as the shear stays low. As the storm would develop, it would make it less likely for the dry air to penetrate into the core. However, the shear is the big problem right now and things are getting worse. If this can't develop, nothing can.

[ROCK]

Looks due N @34' can we say decouplation(is that word) has taken place goofy goofy season

I would say due north..NHC said it was being influenced by the vortex to the NE that flared up over night....still though I think its not fully decoupled but its getting close....shear is increasing around it...

[plasticup]

It looks like the convective blob to the northeast might be ensnared by the circulation. That could give it a brand new lease.

[gatorcane]

so a new center may form farther west then.....

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm, if it's decoupled, does that mean there's a good chance the NHC will downgrade it to a wave on the next advisory?

[ROCK]

so a new center may form farther west then.....

I dont know Gator that LLC looks pretty good..wound up nicely and not your typical eddy that developing systems tend to spit out.....might make a loop around now that the NE feature is almost gone....looks like overnight it migrated NE due to shear and the huge cold tops that feature was producing.....JMO though.....

Notice the high clouds to the north...that my friend is stable air...cloud formation gives it away...I dont care what the WV loop says....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[ROCK]

Hmmm, if it's decoupled, does that mean there's a good chance the NHC will downgrade it to a wave on the next advisory?

highly doubt it CZ..its not open by any means and I dont think its fully decoupled....I think it might make a loop or as Gator said maybe a new center....leaning towards a loop around right now...

[Aric Dunn]

This is all temporary motion. it is interacting with that small weak vorticity to the north and they are attempting to rotate around each other but the one to the north is nearly dead and the TD should begin a more wnw motion maybe even more westerly for a time being. we should see this start very shortly in the next few hours.

[perk]

Hmmm, if it's decoupled, does that mean there's a good chance the NHC will downgrade it to a wave on the next advisory?

I doubt it, that LLC is there.

[ROCK]

This is all temporary motion. it is interacting with that small weak vorticity to the north and they are attempting to rotate around each other but the one to the north is nearly dead and the TD should begin a more wnw motion maybe even more westerly for a time being. we should see this start very shortly in the next few hours.

I am leaning that way also Aric.....loop around....that LLC is pretty potent..

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

The NRL latest image.

[Aric Dunn]

Well as it gets slightly farther north the shear will come down pretty quickly and we could see it come back by later today.