ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[ConvergenceZone]

wxman57 , I guess what I mean is, has there ever been a wave in which no models weren't supporting the wave to develop into ANYTHING? and then it later developed into a hurricane.

or perhaps better wording is, "no models were picking it up"

[hriverajr]

I think we will know by morning.. I think it has a chance.. a little more than wxman57 thinks but maybe a bit less than stewart thinks. I am right in the middle There is a pretty good mid level rotation which was mostly absent last night.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[tailgater]

Looks like it's starting to get it's act together, hope it makes ahard left if it does develop.
Pretty colors.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Dean4Storms]

I think it will struggle to develop. I give it 20%.

[hurricaneCW]

Convection is pretty much stripped away from the system. If it doesn't start bursting soon, it won't have a chance to do anything.

[wxman57]

wxman57 , I guess what I mean is, has there ever been a wave in which no models weren't supporting the wave to develop into ANYTHING? and then it later developed into a hurricane.

or perhaps better wording is, "no models were picking it up"

Do you mean the global models or HWRF/GFDL/SHIPS? And how far out? GFS goes out 15 days, Canadian and Euro go out 10 days. They often miss development at some point along the way.

[Texas Snowman]

Don't know if it has closed off a circulation yet, but that last group of viz shots referenced above does look kind of interesting...

[wxman57]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif

Latest

I wouldn't read too much into the placing of an "L" on a map. It just signifies an area of generally lower pressure, not a developing depression. We often use an "L" in place of a dashed trof line because an "L" is better understood by the general public as meaning low pressure. Surface obs still do not show a closed surface low. Well, time for bed.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[funster]

Looks good to me. Should not be too long before we start seeing convection around the center. Still has a couple of days to gel into something in warm waters.

[Cainer]

I've heard people say before that when a developing cyclone tracks over non-mountainous land, it can help "tighten" the strom's circulation. We saw it with Fay over Florida, Alex over the Yucatan and 96L sort of. I was wondering what's the meteorological science behind this?

[brunota2003]

Friction from the land is what helps tighten them up.

[siriusonellc.]

Another Alex?

[cycloneye]

Another Alex?

Just maybe on track close to the Alex one, but definitly not on intensity.

[siriusonellc.]

By the way HI! My name is Alex... Funny thing.. Alex was spawned right around my birthday as well. Happy bday to me.. Looks like the Atlantic hurricane outlook was right about it being an active season, so far the basin has been rather busy.

[ozonepete]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif

Latest

I wouldn't read too much into the placing of an "L" on a map. It just signifies an area of generally lower pressure, not a developing depression. We often use an "L" in place of a dashed trof line because an "L" is better understood by the general public as meaning low pressure. Surface obs still do not show a closed surface low. Well, time for bed.

Confused here, wxman57. The general public has no idea of what a low pressure is. And when they put an "L" on the map, they mean an area of low pressure which means a LOW. I don't think any of us thought that meant a tropical depression.

[siriusonellc.]

I'm gonna have to go with the NHC on this one, according to their latest they are sending 2 aircraft out to this one.

[HURAKAN]

I'm gonna have to go with the NHC on this one, according to their latest they are sending 2 aircraft out to this one.

sent, mostly research missions