WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[RobWESTPACWX]

O and also good morning, slept in a little today, figured no sleep for me tonight in to tomorrow. I'm suppose to be going up to Tokyo for a few days starting tomorrow. That trip is going to be a doozy, spending a lot of time in starbucks.

[P.K.]

Winds up to 110kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 18.7N 127.5E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 220NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 17.9N 122.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 190000UTC 16.5N 117.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WSW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 200000UTC 16.5N 115.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[srainhoutx]

Impressive cyclone. Those in the path and intercepting, we wish you well!

[P.K.]

If Megi does reach 115ks as forecast it will join a pretty select group of TYs to reach that level.

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/cgi-bin/dt/search_name2.pl?lang=en&t=0&b=14&type=1&size=128&lw=115&sy=1906&hw=140&ey=2010&basin=wnp&name=

[P.K.]

I'm not too sure what PAGASA are up to here. This was literally just issued and is nowhere near what it really is.

TYPHOON “JUAN” UPDATE

AS OF 8:00 AM TODAY, 17 OCTOBER 2010, TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 570 KM EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN (18.7°N, 127.5°E).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 160 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 195 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WESTWARD
SPEED: 24 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 hPa

[dexterlabio]

The 115-kts is based on 10-min sustained winds isn't it? That 115kt wind is surely a killer.

[RL3AO]

I'm not too sure what PAGASA are up to here. This was literally just issued and is nowhere near what it really is.

TYPHOON “JUAN” UPDATE

AS OF 8:00 AM TODAY, 17 OCTOBER 2010, TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 570 KM EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN (18.7°N, 127.5°E).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 160 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 195 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WESTWARD
SPEED: 24 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 hPa

Wow. Even if you ignore recon its quite clearly a sub-930 system.

[phwxenthusiast]

I'm not too sure what PAGASA are up to here. This was literally just issued and is nowhere near what it really is.

TYPHOON “JUAN” UPDATE

AS OF 8:00 AM TODAY, 17 OCTOBER 2010, TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 570 KM EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN (18.7°N, 127.5°E).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 160 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 195 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WESTWARD
SPEED: 24 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 hPa

lol i know right??!!! the latest was 8am and it remains at 160kph! are they that oblivious?!?!
and i thought PAGASA has improved...

[Infdidoll]

Be safe, James! My husband is there, too...but all I know is that he's somewhere north of Manila and preparing to probably do a lot of humanitarian work. Says there is a lot of poverty near where they are and is worried about the effects of this storm. Kind of illustrated here, in a recent video update from his detachment: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AXl0Z0IllE

I was also remembering the great video James shot from Mirinae: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kx7_Qiy7Lok

[Chacor]

PAGASA is way out of sync here. Someone needs to give them a good smack.

[RL3AO]

Only thing I can think of is its bring your IMD forecaster to work day.

[Chacor]

Guys, if you have twitter, I strongly suggest sending @dost_pagasa a message over their mishandling of the storm. If they start ramping their forecasts up before landfall it might save lives.

[phwxenthusiast]

PAGASA is way out of sync here. Someone needs to give them a good smack.

fire the head!! lol...
seriously though, there is a huge huge difference between 160kph and 205kph... even if they say they're really prepared, if they aren't giving out correct information, there will still be huge problems...

and imo, upgrading this into "Super Typhoon" will help the public realize how serious this storm is...

[dexterlabio]

Even before, I thought PAGASA estimates wind intensity on 10-min average...things change when they made a bulletin for Typhoon Chebi in 2006 saying the max winds was just 120kph, a 65kt Cat1 equivalent typhoon, but JTWC has already upgraded it into a Cat4 equivalent typhoon. Somehow, PAGASA's wind estimate should be similar with that of JMA's.

[dexterlabio]

Well you know I sent a tweet to dost_pagasa regarding Megi's current strength but they made no reply. I think they want to make adjustments when the storm is just a meter away.

[cebuboy]

Amazing looking system, Megi really does look impressive right now.

Few doubts this is going RI right now, eye looks great and there is a heck of alot of deep convection about at the moment...I suspect the 135-140kts range at landfall is a pretty good punt right now and if thats the case this will be a severe event even by Luzon's standards...

Agree, i survived Typhoon mike in 1990 where it has 153 knots 1 minute sustained. The conditions in Cebu Philippines was really, really bad when the eye passes over it. It takes years to recover again. My prayers to the people in the northern province.

[Chacor]

http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/west/

For those of you who want to follow recon but can't understand the raw data we're posting in the recon thread, use the link above.

[phwxenthusiast]

Even before, I thought PAGASA estimates wind intensity on 10-min average...things change when they made a bulletin for Typhoon Chebi in 2006 saying the max winds was just 120kph, a 65kt Cat1 equivalent typhoon, but JTWC has already upgraded it into a Cat4 equivalent typhoon. Somehow, PAGASA's wind estimate should be similar with that of JMA's.

PAGASA is still using 10-min averages if i'm not mistaken... so they should be near the 205kph est. from JMA.. unfortunately, they're 45kph off what the heck!!!!

[supercane]

JMA 00Z advisory at 110kt, with forecast peak of 115kt in 12hr!
WTPQ50 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 18.7N 127.5E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 220NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 17.9N 122.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 190000UTC 16.5N 117.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WSW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 200000UTC 16.5N 115.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 210000UTC 17.3N 114.3E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
120HF 220000UTC 18.4N 114.1E 260NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =

[dexterlabio]

PAGASA is still using 10-min averages if i'm not mistaken... so they should be near the 205kph est. from JMA.. unfortunately, they're 45kph off what the heck!!!!

Yes, so at least the PAGASA and JMA estimates should be similar...but I guesss PAGASA is using a 100-min average at this point.