ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I would say the FL Keys and Southern FL get slammed looking at this...and the model is far out there so the exact track will change

...

Yes, but D5 said "going Wilma in 5 days" - that run is a lot weaker than Wilma and it's a lot longer out than 5 days.

Oh okay, my misunderstanding

[DESTRUCTION5]

I would say the FL Keys and Southern FL get slammed looking at this...and the model is far out there so the exact track will change

...

Yes, but D5 said "going Wilma in 5 days" - that run is a lot weaker than Wilma and it's a lot longer out than 5 days.

Well I meant from a start to finish standpoint....

Really starts getting nasty end of day 7....

[northjaxpro]

If it moves away from the shore, LOOK OUT. The water there is capable of explosive deepening.

Yeah, in the Gulf of Honduras the system definitely has the potential to deepen into a very potent tropical cyclone, especially if it meanders around in that region for days or remains stationary, which a few models have Paula doing just that.

[latitude_20]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 18:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate seventh suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 18:11:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°42'N 83°45'W (15.7N 83.75W)
B. Center Fix Location: 294 miles (473 km) to the SSW (212°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 28° at 46kts (From the NNE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 462m (1,516ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 465m (1,526ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 18:04:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FAIR SPIRAL BAND NW AROUND TO NE
OUTBOUND FL WIND 42 KTS NE QUAD 18:15:10Z

[latitude_20]

Beautiful banding:

[wxman57]

NHC track is embedded in the model guidance for Paula at 18Z. Indicates a NW motion for 2-3 days then stalling SE of Cozumel with a slow east drift through day 5. Seems reasonable. Oh, and that "16/13" is the valid time for day 5. It's 1pm CDT on the 16th.

[Blown Away]

If Paula stays offshore, as depicted by wxman57's map, she could be a significant storm!

[Ptarmigan]

:uarrow:
If Paula stays offshore, as depicted by wxman57's map, she could be a significant storm!

That is what concerns me.

[petit_bois]

:uarrow:
If Paula stays offshore, as depicted by wxman57's map, she could be a significant storm!

That is what concerns me.

it's going to be a long "wait and see" It doesn't look like she's going anywhere fast... yet.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paulamodels.gif

Where can you find that preliminary track online?

[wxman57]

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paulamodels.gif

Where can you find that preliminary track online?

I don't know, it just came into our system with the other model plots. I can select which ones to plot. This doesn't mean that WILL be the NHC forecast, but under the circumstances, I'd say there's a good chance the 21Z forecast will be very close.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't know, it just came into our system with the other model plots. I can select which ones to plot. This doesn't mean that WILL be the NHC forecast, but under the circumstances, I'd say there's a good chance the 21Z forecast will be very close.

I notice it put Paula over where the tropical heat content is the highest in the Atlantic.

[canes101]

Storm2k map has gone to "No Active Storms" http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric= This happens when they go from an active invest to a storm.. Advisory should be very soon

[canes101]

NHC track is embedded in the model guidance for Paula at 18Z. Indicates a NW motion for 2-3 days then stalling SE of Cozumel with a slow east drift through day 5. Seems reasonable. Oh, and that "16/13" is the valid time for day 5. It's 1pm CDT on the 16th.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paulamodels.gif

Whats suppose to happen with her after the stall wxman?

[northjaxpro]

NHC track is embedded in the model guidance for Paula at 18Z. Indicates a NW motion for 2-3 days then stalling SE of Cozumel with a slow east drift through day 5. Seems reasonable. Oh, and that "16/13" is the valid time for day 5. It's 1pm CDT on the 16th.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paulamodels.gif

Well, that track would make sense to me if that indeed is what NHC is depicting over 120 hours. This would support the theory that the shortwave currently moving through the Central U.S. Plains moving east would not pick up Paula, therefore the cyclone would meander around or become stationary in the NW Caribbean/Yucatan Channel region at the end of this period.

[cycloneye]

49kts at flight level- 47kts at SMFR uncontaminated.

[latitude_20]

So how long before we get the official word and advisories from NHC?

[FLpanhandle91]

NHC now has TS Paula listed.

[CrazyC83]

There was a rain-contanimated SFMR of 69 kt as well. I would disregard that personally and go with a 45 kt intensity.

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC now has TS Paula listed.

Where are you seeing this?

EDIT: Its on the floater.