ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tshizzle]

well this thing is dead

[Blown Away]

12Z GFS has a 989mb storm brushing Miami in 288 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you believe the 12z GFS the system shown above is not 95L and is the second low that develops to the east as 95L reaches the Gulf of Honduras.

[jlauderdal]

Jeff Masters wrote:Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.
I haven't looked at all the models. But that sounds reasonable. I think rain here but no Matthew.

So based on the last sentece of the quote above, does that mean that Jeff Masters is saying that he
thinks that 95L is going to be a rainmaker, but that he doesn't expect it to develop into Matthew?
So Jeff Masters expects it to remain a wave?

it means as typical with him he isnt going to go out on a limb until the solution is obvious which is fine but thats what we get with him, he is the contra to JB, just an observation, i prefer what i see on this board with a filter of course to what I get from those two guys

[jlauderdal]

well this thing is dead

yep, see you next season, have a good winter

[lester]

well this thing is dead

It's not dead until it's deactivated..and it's not deactivated.

[Blown Away]

it means as typical with him he isnt going to go out on a limb until the solution is obvious which is fine but thats what we get with him, he is the contra to JB, just an observation, i prefer what i see on this board with a filter of course to what I get from those two guys

This is why I like JB, the "he can't be wrong" map has gotta make you laugh.

[Wx_Warrior]

makes sense with me...stays south like Alex/Karl or SE-US.

[GeneratorPower]

well this thing is dead

Thank you, Mr. Shizzle. Good to have you aboard.

[SoupBone]

it means as typical with him he isnt going to go out on a limb until the solution is obvious which is fine but thats what we get with him, he is the contra to JB, just an observation, i prefer what i see on this board with a filter of course to what I get from those two guys

This is why I like JB, the "he can't be wrong" map has gotta make you laugh.

It's called "hedging your bet". I respect him though for going out on a limb quite a few times to make bold predictions.

This has to be one of the most complicated setups we've seen so far with models all over the place. I'm enjoying the hell out of it.

[GeneratorPower]

well this thing is dead

It's not dead until it's deactivated..and it's not deactivated.

Looks like the beginning stages of a developing cyclone to me. 60% probs from NHC on development. A better than half chance it's a go. Cool.

[jlauderdal]

it means as typical with him he isnt going to go out on a limb until the solution is obvious which is fine but thats what we get with him, he is the contra to JB, just an observation, i prefer what i see on this board with a filter of course to what I get from those two guys

This is why I like JB, the "he can't be wrong" map has gotta make you laugh.

It's called "hedging your bet". I respect him though for going out on a limb quite a few times to make bold predictions.

This has to be one of the most complicated setups we've seen so far with models all over the place. I'm enjoying the hell out of it.

he certainly gives the W O W factor and he make predictions early on and sticks to his guns which is why I said he is the contra to masters, two completely different styles and they are consistent with those styles which is good because you always know what you are getting, now back to 95, nobody can have high confidence with this setup so its really very interesting

[Vortex]

18Z GFS H36 organizing...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Vortex]

H42 stronger





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[Vortex]

H54 Approaching NE Nicaragua




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[Dean4Storms]

H42 stronger





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

Actually depicting a closed low and TS strength if you look at the wind barbs to the north of it.

[Vortex]

H66 landfall...very consisten on this part of Nicaragua.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

[gatorcane]

Keep in mind, what the models are showing that may impact the GOM/SE US is not the current invest but some other low that develops east of this low once it moves into Central America. That other low doesn't look like it develops until at least 5 days from now, in the Central Caribbean.

[Vortex]

H90 back over water..Gulf of Honduras...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Keep in mind, what the models are showing that may impact the GOM/SE US is not the current invest but some other low that develops east of this low once it moves into Central America. That other low doesn't look like it develops until at least 5 days from now, in the Central Caribbean.

It is just the GFS developing another low..

[Vortex]

Keep in mind, what the models are showing that may impact the GOM/SE US is not the current invest but some other low that develops east of this low once it moves into Central America. That other low doesn't look like it develops until at least 5 days from now, in the Central Caribbean.

Gator, the 12Z GFS was the first run that has the later low takeover..well find out if its a trend shortly