ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Today's RECON was brought to you by the letter S

[Aric Dunn]

If it is not upgraded soon. It will most likely be by 5pm and could be a TS by then.

[cycloneye]

They are still trying to close the circulation.

[dwsqos2]

What a broad mess of center the data show. I am not surprised given the fast low-level flow, a very typical issue in Ninas. Also, based on current model progs 95L may not be the primary impetus for the storm in the WCAR. I'm starting to think my 50 knot peak may be too generous. I'm still calling for a dud.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Air Force Met]

They are still trying to close the circulation.

The circulation is closed. Of that there is no doubt.

[ROCK]

What a broad mess of center the data show. I am not surprised given the fast low-level flow, a very typical issue in Ninas. Also, based on current model progs 95L may not be the primary impetus for the storm in the WCAR. I'm starting to think my 50 knot peak may be too generous. I'm still calling for a dud.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dws, you call for a dud with every storm..... but you make a good point it is caught up in the easterlies..I still think its well on its way with that sat presentation....how strong before land interaction if at all remains to be seen...

[lester]

What a broad mess of center the data show. I am not surprised given the fast low-level flow, a very typical issue in Ninas. Also, based on current model progs 95L may not be the primary impetus for the storm in the WCAR. I'm starting to think my 50 knot peak may be too generous. I'm still calling for a dud.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

A system affecting the poor countries of central america with potential mudslides and floods is NOT a dud. Also, if it misses central america which is possible 50 kts may be too conservative

[cycloneye]

Peeps,look at how they are flying to find the center.

[HURAKAN]

As the trough pushes the high eastward, the track should become more west-northwest

[boca]

According to the steering flow this would be a Texas storm as of now, Not necessarily 2 days from know if things are progressive.

[Blown Away]

Peeps,look at how they are flying to find the center.
http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/2572/18456216.jpg

Curious to see if they find the center north or south of 13.5??

[abajan]

For those who dont know the wind directions,here they are.

Code: Select all

Cardinal Direction Degree Direction
 
N
 348.75 - 11.25
 
NNE
 11.25 - 33.75
 
NE
 33.75 - 56.25
 
ENE
 56.25 - 78.75
 
E
 78.75 - 101.25
 
ESE
 101.25 - 123.75
 
SE
 123.75 - 146.25
 
SSE
 146.25 - 168.75
 
S
 168.75 - 191.25
 
SSW
 191.25 - 213.75
 
SW
 213.75 - 236.25
 
WSW
 236.25 - 258.75
 
W
 258.75 - 281.25
 
WNW
 281.25 - 303.75
 
NW
 303.75 - 326.25
 
NNW
 326.25 - 348.75
 


Here’s a link with similar info and a compass rose.

[HURAKAN]

152130 1408N 07535W 9902 00168 0094 +249 +166 076032 034 032 000 00

looks like we may go straight to Matthew

[boca]

152130 1408N 07535W 9902 00168 0094 +249 +166 076032 034 032 000 00

looks like we may go straight to Matthew

Sure looks that way.

[CourierPR]

152130 1408N 07535W 9902 00168 0094 +249 +166 076032 034 032 000 00

looks like we may go straight to Matthew

If the center is farther north that makes things a little more interesting.

[ROCK]

152130 1408N 07535W 9902 00168 0094 +249 +166 076032 034 032 000 00

looks like we may go straight to Matthew

agree...or at least thats what I take out of those obs...

[MHurricanes]

152130 1408N 07535W 9902 00168 0094 +249 +166 076032 034 032 000 00

looks like we may go straight to Matthew

Hurakan,

Can you please explain those numbers (I assume several are coordinates)? How do you know it may "go straight to Matthew"?

Thanks.

[Evil Jeremy]

152130 1408N 07535W 9902 00168 0094 +249 +166 076032 034 032 000 00

looks like we may go straight to Matthew

Hurakan,

Can you please explain those numbers? How do you know it may "go straight to Matthew"?

Thanks.

That recon observation indicates very weak TS winds, at least on the flight level.

[dwsqos2]

There were 990 mb winds as high as 36 knots; however, I am not sure of reduction factors for such altitudes. I am also too lazy to guess based upon standard wind profiles. I did see a flagged 34 knot SFMR ob, but SFMR is not weighted heavily in weak storms.

However, it may be or quickly become Matthew simply because of the fast low-level flow and the resultant strong near surface winds.

[HenkL]

Looking at recon data, I would say center around 13°50'N and 75°35'W.