ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[Terry]

Earl should have served as a reminder that the predicted curve doesn't always happen as soon as the models & NHC predicts. Living in FL, I prefer to wait until I see it.

[hurricaneCW]

Igor would be a big problem if the subtropical ridge ends up being stronger than forecast because the storm wouldn't turn as far north and the next weakness coming off the U.S. is very weak with ridging being more dominant. There's no sharp trough like we saw with Earl that would rapidly turn Igor away.

[dixiebreeze]

11/2345 UTC 17.6N 41.7W T4.0/4.0 IGOR -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

[Vortmax1]

At this time mf_dolphin I'm going to go along with the model consensus.
I have many years of experience as well and the charts are not showing me a reason to argue with the NHC at this time.

[Macrocane]

Igor is one of the best looking 65 kt hurricanes I've seen, I think the NHC was a little conservative on this advisory.

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 021500 UTC
Lat : 17:37:47 N Lon : 42:10:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 982.2mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.6 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -9.8C Cloud Region Temp : -65.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[gatorcane]

Looks like igor will be no threat to the united states as been my thinking from the get-go with this one. Seems like Bermuda will need to watch this one though. Model consensus is strong on it hitting the weakness. Where they diverge is when it makes the turn which should be ne of the leewards.

[Swimdude]

but as we all discovered with Earl, computer models are not perfect by any means.

Please refresh my memory regarding Earl.
I don't know what you mean.

This is the first page of the models thread from Earl: viewtopic.php?f=54&t=109111&start=0

Notice how tightly clustered the models were from the beginning. Also notice that the very first words (sorry to point the finger on you Cycloneye!) in the Earl models thread are "goes to fishland," which was obviously not the case. The models are doing the same thing with Igor--they are tightly clustered and absolutely certain that the storm is headed out to sea. Will this be the case? As with Earl, time will tell.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Ptarmigan]

Looking at the satellite presentation of Igor, it looks quite impressive for a Category 1. From that, I think it has a good shot of rapidly intensifying overnight. I would not be surprised if it becomes a Category 5.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[sponger]

100 MPH Would not surprise me at all. Certainly by morning. The surf has been great so I am hoping for another recurve off the east coast.

[fci]

At this time mf_dolphin I'm going to go along with the model consensus.
I have many years of experience as well and the charts are not showing me a reason to argue with the NHC at this time.

I don't think anyone is suggesting an arguement with the NHC on track.
However, I also don't take anything for granted until I see the actual track occur.
For me, living in South Florida, there is a certain Latitude and Longitude I look for before I go "all clear"
Obviously, that differs for everyone.
All that is being said is to watch until the track actually happens; no arguement that it is "expected"; but "expected" doesn't mean actual reality!!!

[HarlequinBoy]

Igor is probably up to Cat 2 now, definitely not a weak Cat 1 anymore.

[bob rulz]

They only increased the winds to 80mph?

Yeesh, talk about conservative.

[WeatherGuesser]

eye-gor's been taking his time ramping up. Seems like he was stuck at 70 forever, like he was on cruise control on an open freeway.

[abajan]

The following text is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That westward bend near the end of the forecast track looks ominous. Initially I thought Igor’s eye would pass to Bermuda’s east but if this track pans out, the center would more likely pass to the island’s west, placing that island on the stronger side of what may well be a much larger and more powerful hurricane by the time it is in that area.

Of course, the bend in the track may also be hinting at a possible future threat to CONUS or Canada.

[I-wall]

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a cat 3 in the next couple hours. The latest microwave is impressive. Appears to be undergoing some RI.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc10/ATL/11L.IGOR/tmi/tmi_85v/thumb/Latest.html

[ColinDelia]

6z SHIPS brings Igor to 125 knots in 108 hours
LGEM goes to 120 knots

Here is the SHIPS probability of RI in next 24 hours.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21%
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15%
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11%
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8%

[KWT]

I suspect this one probably ends up close to 65-70W and so pass to Bermuda's west but to the states east. How quickly the trough comes in nd at what angle will dictate the threat to SE Canada but its there for sure IMO.

This likely has the makings of a very long lived major hurricane, its going to rake up some huge ACE...